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Having macroeconomic and financial system stability being restored, the focus should shift towards enhancing growth prospects that are both inclusive and sustainable 2024 is a year to be remembered in Sri Lanka’s economic journey since many challenges faced by the country have significantly eased. Sri Lanka is returning to normal after recurring economic shocks since 2019, including the Easter Sunday attack, the pandemic, and the economic crisis. The global economy also exhibited economic resilience amidst multiple challenges, with a soft landing compared to what was feared. Meanwhile, geopolitical conditions became unfavourable. Let’s dive deeper into these. In 2024, Sri Lanka made notable progress in restoring macroeconomic and financial system stability. Following a selective debt-standstill announcement in 2022, external debt restructuring negotiations were concluded in 2024. Subsequently, the country exited the restricted default status it had experienced over two and a half years. Further, the sovereign rating was upgraded by several notches, thus reducing the country’s risk premium substantially. The Extend Fund Facility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continued successfully and the Executive Board's approval for the second review and staff-level agreement for the third review were reached in 2024. These developments, along with political stability built on a stronger mandate, helped ease market conditions and enhance bullish market sentiments during the latter part of the year. The key macroeconomic indicators improved compared to alarming levels that prevailed in recent years. Inflationary pressures eased notably, and the country recorded temporary deflation after several years. This allowed the easing of monetary conditions further during the year to support credit expansion and economic activity. Moreover, economic growth recovered at a faster pace, facilitated by low interest rates, improved economic sentiments, reviving domestic and external demand, and a lower statistical base of growth in 2023. Importantly, persistent imbalances in the fiscal sector were largely adjusted through fiscal consolidation measures and improved fiscal discipline. Buffers of foreign reserves to withstand external shocks were improved, supported by continuous forex purchases by the Central Bank. Meanwhile, reflecting the external current account surplus supported by increased net inflows of forex and positive market sentiments, exchange rate appreciation continued in 2024 as well. These improvements on the external front alongside the need to increase fiscal revenue prompted the Government to consider the relaxation of remaining import restrictions by the end of the year. In addition to the improvements on the macroeconomic front, the financial sector resilience also improved, and any financial sector catastrophe was avoided decisively. Key financial soundness indicators, including capital adequacy, credit quality, liquidity, and profitability, have shown improvement in the year. Completion of the restructuring of foreign currency debt held by the banks reduced the uncertainties and risks to the banks. Prominently, the legal framework governing the banking system was further strengthened to enhance the soundness of the banking sector, including the areas of governance, related party transactions, large exposure, and ownership. Money market and financial market performances were enhanced, and the stock market reached new heights. Nevertheless, the scarring effect of the prolonged economic hardships on the people and businesses remains. Targeted policy measures to support the most vulnerable segment of the population and businesses would offer temporary relief for survival. Nevertheless, improving inclusive economic growth prospects would be a lasting solution to this problem. Global economic prospects revived, even amidst tighter disinflationary policies of central banks and continued stiff financial conditions. However, global growth over the medium term is projected to hover below the averages recorded before the pandemic. Inflation in many countries returned closer to the targeted levels, after spikes observed during 2022-2023. This disinflation record without leading to global recession is commendable, thanks to the synchronised monetary policy measures and eased global supply. Subsequently, consistent reduction in inflation and anchored inflation expectations facilitated transition towards broad-based monetary policy easing. In 2024, major advanced countries, including the USA, UK, and European Union, began to reduce policy interest rates, after maintaining tighter monetary stance in 2022 and 2023. Meanwhile, prices of key commodities, such as crude oil, LP gas, coal, and agricultural products, exhibited less volatility and stabilised at a lower level, due to an improvement in demand-supply mismatches. The US dollar strengthened against its major rivals, as measured by the US dollar index. Several political developments unfolded this year with many countries electing new political administrations. Shifting major policy priorities in global superpowers, particularly the USA, could shape the global geoeconomic and social dynamics in the period ahead. In general, fiscal performance worsened globally in 2024 and fiscal sustainability concerns have resurfaced. Global public debt widened in 2024 and is set to increase further in the coming years. Even though it is mainly driven by the USA and China, increasing public debt is becoming a widespread issue. Moreover, fiscal vulnerabilities are emerging further, prompting warnings from multilateral agencies on the high likelihood of sovereign distress in many countries. From a medium-term perspective, pursuing fiscal adjustment through fiscal consolidation, building fiscal buffers along with enhancing fiscal governance would help mitigate the lingering effects of debt unsustainability and the need for painful one-time fiscal adjustments. The time is conducive now, as easing global monetary conditions creates space for countries to absorb the impact of fiscal tightening. On the financial front, the near-term risks to global financial stability remain muted, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and easing monetary conditions. However, the possible spillovers of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainties on economic sectors and financial system cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, social indicators, including poverty reduction, gender equality, and female labour force participation, did not show any significant progress during the year, and thus requiring continuous global attention. Sri Lanka has once again demonstrated its resilience by emerging from the deepest economic crisis in record time. This was possible through decisive policy measures involving multiple stakeholders and international partners. However, it is essential not to become complacent and to continue prioritising structural reforms. Sri Lankans have now fully understood the cost and implications of persistent economic imbalances and macroeconomic instability. Any step forward should be taken cautiously to circumvent backtracking from the strong reform agenda. Having macroeconomic and financial system stability being restored, the focus should shift towards enhancing growth prospects that are both inclusive and sustainable. Reforms aimed at addressing remaining structural economic issues and vulnerabilities should continue in the same spirit. Since the global environment is becoming ever more unpredictable, Sri Lanka should build buffers in its external, fiscal, financial, and monetary sectors to withstand externally driven shocks with minimal adjustment cost. Additionally, Sri Lanka needs to adapt to global megatrends, such as climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, the adoption of artificial intelligence, and the aging population. Such preparation will empower Sri Lanka to navigate the evolving global landscape effectively in the years to come.
2024 in retrospectBauchi governor criticises Tinubu’s tax reforms, says policies threaten national unityLast month, Virginia Commonwealth University introduced a chatbot powered by artificial intelligence. But the computer program doesn’t teach classes or help professors shape their lectures. Instead, the initiative is designed to raise money from donors. The university named her Ramona as an homage to the school’s Ram mascot. With a face and a voice, she can invite alumni to events and explain how a donation would impact VCU. And she’s doing a heck of a job. Ramona contacted 1,000 VCU alumni last month and received a better-than-usual response rate. One graduate even discussed making a large gift to VCU. Her introduction was so impressive, members of the university’s governing Board of Visitors joked that robots really are taking over the world. Ramona was built by a Boston-based company called Givzey, which builds products to help nonprofit groups raise money. In September, it launched a product called a virtual engagement officer that can send texts and emails, answer questions, and invite donors to homecoming. If the chatbot learns the donor is specifically interested in the School of the Arts, it can suggest specific ways to donate and explain how the gift would impact the university. Ramona is a chatbot powered by artificial intelligence which solicits donations from Virginia Commonwealth University alumni. The name Ramona is an homage to the school’s Ram mascot. It has also shown the ability to improvise. At the College of Charleston, a graduate asked the chatbot to write a poem convincing him to attend homecoming. In 17 seconds, the AI responded with a decent eight-line, rhyming verse about reviving dreams on campus. VCU and 12 other colleges bought in. Among them is the College of William & Mary, whose bot is named Wren. The software was built in house by Givzey, using four machine learning programs known as neural net algorithms. AI hardware giant Santa Clara, California-based Nvidia provided the computer chips on which the software is built. The chatbot makes it very clear the donor is receiving a message from a computer program and not a human. The last thing universities want is to lose the trust of their alumni, said Adam Martel, Givzey’s founder and CEO. Donors don’t seem to mind that they’re hearing from a computer. Since October, the 13 chatbots have raised more than $200,000, Givzey said, including a single donation of $10,000 at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania. VCU, which paid $15,000 to use the program, gave Ramona a very specific assignment. The university had lost touch with about 40,000 alumni — from 2000 to 2009, the school had stopped reaching out to graduates. So VCU instructed Ramona to begin rebuilding those relationships. In late November, Ramona sent text messages to 1,000 alumni. Ninety-seven asked for a follow-up message from a human fundraiser, and just six asked not to be contacted again. One of the 97 has discussed a gift that could be worth more than $100,000. That response is better than what VCU would expect from a typical mass email, said Jay Davenport, VCU’s vice president for fundraising. Ramona even delivered a few surprises. Without being directed, she used the word “unbound,” which may have been a reference to the university’s “Uncommon” marketing campaign that describes the university using words that start with “Un.” “We’re very, very pleased with the initial test and the response,” Davenport said. “We think this will be an incredible opportunity for VCU and a great way to interact with people who we did not have any interaction with.” VCU has increased its ability to collect donations in recent years. In the 2023 fiscal year, it drew a record $271 million from donors. VCU’s endowment, managed by the VCU Investment Management Company, was worth $2.2 billion in September. To give their chatbots a face and voice, Givzey gave colleges about 40 avatars to choose from, with each avatar based on a real-life actor. Having chosen a female of mixed race, VCU wanted a face that would be the broadest representation of the university, Davenport said. St. John Fisher University chose the same face and named her Quinn. Eventually, Martel envisions colleges using many avatars and allowing the donor to choose the face and voice speaking. Not every donor wants to speak to an AI chatbot. But some colleges have 250,000 living alumni, and if just a slice of them are willing to converse with AI, that’s enough to make the endeavor worthwhile, Martel said. VCU found that graduates from engineering, business and science departments were more comfortable engaging with Ramona. Martel’s biggest concern is that the virtual engagement officer will produce misinformation and convince the donor of something that isn’t true. But that hasn’t happened yet, and even minor errors, such as a misspelled name or an incorrect data point, have been rare. The chatbots have made only 10 minor mistakes, Martel said. The biggest fear surrounding artificial intelligence is that it will take people’s jobs. But Martel said he doesn’t think his product will do that, because nonprofit organizations do not have enough human fundraisers to develop relationships with all their donors. “There just aren’t enough frontline fundraisers out there,” Martel said. VCU employs 60 fundraisers, known as gift officers, more than any other nonprofit in the area, Davenport said. But those employees can develop relationships with only a fraction of VCU’s living alumni. It’s Ramona’s job to fill in the gaps. Earlier this month, VCU introduced the bot to the school’s board of visitors. Reflecting the uneasiness surrounding AI, one board member joked, “Please donate before I terminate you.” Artificial intelligence has swept through VCU. The university has deployed 36 different tools using AI, including a Zoom application that transcribes the conversation at meetings and a Chat GPT bot that answers questions about VCU’s IT policies. Sotiropoulos The school developed a lengthy set of rules and guidelines for how professors and students should use AI, and the university is incorporating it into the entire curriculum. “We want to empower our students to be successful in this new world but also advance research in that space as well,” VCU Provost Fotis Sotiropoulos told the Board of Visitors in the fall. “Every student needs to understand algorithms in AI.” This year, VCU introduced a minor in practical AI, and about 3,000 students are enrolled in classes studying the technology. The most popular class is Philosophy 202, or “Ethics of Artificial Intelligence.” “We’re just beginning to scratch the surface,” Sotiropoulos said. Eric Kolenich (804) 649-6109 ekolenich@timesdispatch.com Get local news delivered to your inbox!
REGINA — Saskatchewan's fall legislative sitting ended Tuesday with political barbs traded across the aisle after Premier Scott Moe promised a better tone two weeks ago. The swipes began when Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck told the assembly Moe should offer immediate affordability relief, including suspending the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax and scrapping the provincial sales tax on ready-to-eat grocery items and children's clothing. In reply, Moe said there is no sales tax on groceries and that Beck should go speak to federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. “What we see unfortunately from members opposite, Mr. Speaker, decade after decade, leader after leader is the same old questions, the same old tactics and the same old NDP,” Moe said. The remarks drew ire from Opposition members, with one saying the Saskatchewan Party deserves a lump of coal for Christmas. “The premier knows full well we don’t support the carbon tax, but what he doesn’t seem to understand is how much families in this province are struggling,” Beck said. The jostling continued. Upon questioning for not removing the PST from children’s clothing, Crown Investments Minister Jeremy Harrison told the house that New Democrats don't know how to grow the economy. He also urged heckling Opposition member Nathaniel Teed to get up and speak. “I’d encourage the member for Saskatoon-Meewasin to get up and ask the next question if he has so much to say from his chair,” Harrison said. “What we are committed to -- and what this session really has been focused on -- is affordability.” In late November, Moe had promised better civility in the assembly and that government members would not send the Speaker harassing text messages. Earlier this year, former Speaker Randy Weekes accused government members of bullying him. Moe told reporters Tuesday he’s leaving it up to others to judge whether the tone has changed. “We are not the Opposition. We are the government of Saskatchewan,” Moe said. “We should conduct ourselves accordingly, and I would hope throughout this abbreviated session this fall that the people of Saskatchewan can be proud of the individuals.” Beck told reporters her party will remain tough on issues of affordability, health care, education, crime and homelessness. “Decorum is important, but that doesn’t mean that we should put on kid gloves when it comes to the very real issues that are facing Saskatchewan people,” she said. The Opposition introduced six emergency motions in the assembly this sitting, including ones that urged the province to suspend the fuel tax, remove the PST, launch a committee to fix health care and investigate high food prices in the province’s remote north. Each motion failed after they were rejected by government members. “We believe Saskatchewan people do need some affordability relief,” Beck said. “We will continue to push for the things that Saskatchewan people tell us are most important to them.” Moe said the province has introduced its own affordability measures and is also prepared to strike a task force with nurses and doctors to address health-care issues. His government passed legislation last week that provides broad income tax relief, saving an average family of four more than $3,400 over four years. Another bill keeps the carbon levy off home heating. Saskatchewan has not remitted carbon levies to the federal government in the past year, arguing it should be exempt after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a carve-out for heating oil. The federal government has said it reached a deal with Saskatchewan over the issue by securing 50 per cent of what was owed until the dispute is resolved. “This session was largely about setting the foundation for both enacting our platform but providing the change that Saskatchewan people have asked for, and we feel that we have done that,” Moe said. The legislative sitting is to resume in the spring with the provincial budget. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 10, 2024. Jeremy Simes, The Canadian Press
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