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By JOSH BOAK WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump loved to use tariffs on foreign goods during his first presidency. But their impact was barely noticeable in the overall economy, even if their aftershocks were clear in specific industries. The data show they never fully delivered on his promised factory jobs. Nor did they provoke the avalanche of inflation that critics feared. This time, though, his tariff threats might be different . The president-elect is talking about going much bigger — on a potential scale that creates more uncertainty about whether he’ll do what he says and what the consequences could be. “There’s going to be a lot more tariffs, I mean, he’s pretty clear,” said Michael Stumo, the CEO of Coalition for a Prosperous America, a group that has supported import taxes to help domestic manufacturing. The president-elect posted on social media Monday that on his first day in office he would impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada until those countries satisfactorily stop illegal immigration and the flow of illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the United States. Those tariffs could essentially blow up the North American trade pact that Trump’s team negotiated during his initial term. Chinese imports would face additional tariffs of 10% until Beijing cracks down on the production of materials used in making fentanyl, Trump posted. Democrats and business groups warn of risks from Trump’s tariff threats Business groups were quick to warn about rapidly escalating inflation , while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would counter the move with tariffs on U.S. products. House Democrats put together legislation to strip a president’s ability to unilaterally apply tariffs this drastic, warning that they would likely lead to higher prices for autos, shoes, housing and groceries. Sheinbaum said Wednesday that her administration is already working up a list of possible retaliatory tariffs “if the situation comes to that.” “The economy department is preparing it,” Sheinbaum said. “If there are tariffs, Mexico would increase tariffs, it is a technical task about what would also benefit Mexico,” she said, suggesting her country would impose targeted import duties on U.S. goods in sensitive areas. Related Articles National Politics | Trump transition says Cabinet picks, appointees were targeted by bomb threats, swatting attacks National Politics | Southwest states certify election results after the process led to controversy in previous years National Politics | Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health? National Politics | Trump fills out his economic team with two veterans of his first administration National Politics | Trump chooses controversial Stanford professor Dr. Jay Bhattacharya to lead NIH House Democrats on Tuesday introduced a bill that would require congressional approval for a president to impose tariffs due to claims of a national emergency, a largely symbolic action given Republicans’ coming control of both the House and Senate. “This legislation would enable Congress to limit this sweeping emergency authority and put in place the necessary Congressional oversight before any president – Democrat or Republican – could indiscriminately raise costs on the American people through tariffs,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash. But for Trump, tariffs are now a tested tool that seems less politically controversial even if the mandate he received in November’s election largely involved restraining inflation. The tariffs he imposed on China in his first term were continued by President Joe Biden, a Democrat who even expanded tariffs and restrictions on the world’s second largest economy. Biden administration officials looked at removing Trump’s tariffs in order to bring down inflationary pressures, only to find they were unlikely to help significantly. Tariffs were “so new and unique that it freaked everybody out in 2017,” said Stumo, but they were ultimately somewhat modest. Trump’s first term tariffs had a modest impact on economy Trump imposed tariffs on solar panels and washing machines at the start of 2018, moves that might have pushed up prices in those sectors even though they also overlapped with plans to open washing machine plants in Tennessee and South Carolina. His administration also levied tariffs on steel and aluminum, including against allies. He then increased tariffs on China, leading to a trade conflict and a limited 2020 agreement that failed to produce the promised Chinese purchases of U.S. goods. Still, the dispute changed relations with China as more U.S. companies looked for alternative suppliers in other countries. Economic research also found the United States may have sacrificed some of its “soft power” as the Chinese population began to watch fewer American movies. The Federal Reserve kept inflation roughly on target, but factory construction spending never jumped in a way that suggested a lasting gain in manufacturing jobs. Separate economic research found the tariff war with China did nothing economically for the communities hurt by offshoring, but it did help Trump and Republicans in those communities politically. When Trump first became president in 2017, the federal government collected $34.6 billion in customs, duties and fees. That sum more than doubled under Trump to $70.8 billion in 2019, according to Office of Management and Budget records. While that sum might seem meaningful, it was relatively small compared to the overall economy. America’s gross domestic product is now $29.3 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The total tariffs collected in the United States would equal less than 0.3% of GDP. Trump wants much more far-reaching tariffs going forward The new tariffs being floated by Trump now are dramatically larger and there could be far more significant impacts. If Mexico, Canada, and China faced the additional tariffs proposed by Trump on all goods imported to the United States, that could be roughly equal to $266 billion in tax collections, a number that does not assume any disruptions in trade or retaliatory moves by other countries. The cost of those taxes would likely be borne by U.S. families, importers and domestic and foreign companies in the form of higher prices or lower profits. Former Biden administration officials said they worried that companies could piggyback on Trump’s tariffs — if they’re imposed — as a rationale to raise their prices, just as many companies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 boosted food and energy costs and gave several major companies the space to raise prices, according to their own earnings calls with investors. But what Trump didn’t really spell out is what might cause him to back down on tariffs and declare a victory. What he is creating instead with his tariff threats is a sense of uncertainty as companies and countries await the details to figure out what all of this could mean. “We know the key economic policy priorities of the incoming Trump administration, but we don’t know how or when they will be addressed,” said Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at EY-Parthenon. AP writer Mark Stevenson contributed to this report from Mexico City.NEW YORK (AP) — Juan Soto appears on a timetable to decide on where to sign either before or during baseball's winter meetings in Dallas, which run from Dec. 8-12. Soto met with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, a person familiar with the negotiations said last week, speaking to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because details were not announced. Soto's agent, Scott Boras, asked teams to submit initial offers by Thanksgiving, a second person familiar with the talks said, also on condition of anonymity because it was not announced. Soto is the top player available among this year's free agents . A four-time All-Star, Soto finished third in AL MVP voting after hitting .288 with 41 homers, 109 RBIs and 129 walks. He has a .285 career average with 201 homers, 592 RBIs and 769 walks over seven major league seasons. Soto turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer from Washington in 2022, prompting the Nationals to trade him to San Diego, which then dealt him to the Yankees last December. Soto then combined with Aaron Judge to lead New York to the World Series, where the Yankees lost to the Dodgers . In his pitch to teams, Boras highlighted that Soto joined Mickey Mantle as the only players with seven RBIs in a World Series at age 21 or younger when he was with Washington, and at 20 became the youngest player with five postseason homers. Soto's .906 postseason OPS through age 25 topped Mantle (.900) and Derek Jeter (.852). Soto is likely to seek a record contract, topping Shohei Ohtani's $700 million, 10-year agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. That might not mean Soto gets more than $700 million, though. Because Ohtani's deal included $680 million in deferred money payable through 2043, it can be valued by different methods. For instance, Ohtani's contract is valued at $46.1 million per season ($461 million total) under MLB's luxury tax system, which used a 4.43% discount rate. The players' association uses a 5% rate, which puts Ohtani's contract at $43.8 million per year. For MLB's regular payroll calculations, a 10% discount rates values Ohtani's deal at just $28.2 million. Which means if Soto gets even $462 million without deferred payments, there's an argument that his deal is the most valuable in MLB history. By average annual value, pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for second in baseball history at $43.33 million as part of contracts they signed with the New York Mets, deals that expired at the end of the 2024 season. In terms of total value, Ohtani surpassed outfielder Mike Trout’s $426.5 million, 12-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels through 2030. MLB’s longest contract is outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres through 2034. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies all are likely to enter 2025 having paid luxury tax for three straight years, putting them at the highest rate: a 50% surcharge on payroll between $241 million and $261 million, 62% from $261 million to $281 million, 95% from $281 million to $301 million and 110% for each dollar above $301 million. Toronto may have dropped below the initial tax threshold this year, pending final figures next month. If the Blue Jays did fall under, their rates next year would reset to 20%, 32%, 62.5% and 80% for the four thresholds. If Soto reaches or announces an agreement at the winter meetings in Dallas' Hilton Anatole, it would be a familiar location for a big Boras deal. Alex Rodriguez's record $252 million, 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers was announced in December 2000 at what then was called the Wyndham Anatole Hotel. A-Rod's deal more than doubled MLB's previous high, a $121 million, eight-year contract between pitcher Mike Hampton and Colorado that was announced just two days earlier. “In two days, we’ve doubled a new highest salary,′′ said Sandy Alderson, then an executive vice president in the commissioner’s office. ”I don’t like the exponentiality of that." Rodriguez was 25 at the time of the agreement with Texas, a free agent before entering his likely prime, like Soto. Third baseman Alex Bregman, first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, and outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are among the significant bats available to pursue and likely would interest some of the teams who fail to sign Soto. Bregman and Alonso, like Soto, are represented by Boras. AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/MLB
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Cardinals are average through 12 games and the frustration is it feels as if they could be betterKULR Technology ( KULR -2.92% ) , a provider of energy storage solutions, saw its stock rally about 1,610% over the past two months. It had been languishing as a penny stock since early 2023, but it abruptly skyrocketed and transformed into a hypergrowth stock after it secured new contracts, regained compliance with the NYSE American's listing standards, and made a big Bitcoin purchase to launch its own Bitcoin treasury. But should you buy, sell, or hold KULR's stock after that breathtaking rally? Let's review its business model, growth rates, valuations, and potential catalysts to decide. What does KULR Technology do? KULR develops energy storage solutions for the aerospace and defense industries. Its integrated products dissipate the heat of lithium-ion batteries with thermal interface materials, lightweight heat exchangers, and other safeguards against runaway heating. Its solutions can be customized across a wide range of power and electronic configurations, which makes them ideal for tiny spaces with size and weight limitations. KULR was founded in 2013, and it initially developed fiber-based thermal management technologies for NASA and other aerospace applications. Those heat-dissipating technologies became the foundation of its current business, and it went public as an over-the-counter (OTC) stock in 2018 before being uplisted to the New York Stock Exchange in 2021. How fast has KULR been growing? KULR's revenue rose 285% to $2.4 million in 2021, 66% to $4 million in 2022, and 146% to $9.8 million in 2023. That expansion was driven by its growing list of partners and customers, which includes SpaceX, Tesla , Meta Platforms , Boeing , and General Motors . Over the past three months, KULR expanded its existing U.S. Army battery contract, signed a new high-temperature battery-testing contract with the U.S. Navy, won a defense contract for a major missile program, and announced a plan to launch its KULR ONE Space (K1S) battery to a satellite via SpaceX's rideshare program in 2026. Analysts expect KULR's revenue to only grow 4% to $10.2 million in 2024, but they expect that figure to grow at a two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 123% to $50.8 million in 2026 as it recognizes more revenue from its contracts. They also expect it to narrow its net losses and squeeze out a net profit of $2.9 million in 2026. As KULR scales up its business, it plans to spend 90% of its surplus cash on Bitcoin purchases to build up a Bitcoin treasury. It recently made its first purchase of 217.18 Bitcoins for $21 million at an average price of $96,556.53. That strategy seems similar to MicroStrategy 's Bitcoin buying frenzy over the past four years, but MicroStrategy holds a lot more Bitcoin ($11.9 billion) as of Nov. 10 with a much lower average purchase price of $42,692. Can KULR justify its meme stock valuations? The bulls claim that KULR has carved out a defensible niche and can continue to scale up its energy solutions business as it accumulates more Bitcoin. The bears will point out that with an enterprise value of $1.15 billion, KULR is overvalued at 115 times this year's sales and 23 times its projected sales for 2026. They'll also point out KULR has increased its number of shares by 164% over the past five years, yet its insiders sold more than 50% as many shares as they sold over the past 12 months. They also didn't buy a single share over the past three months. So for now, KULR looks more like a meme stock than a sustainable growth stock. It's generating quite a buzz with its thermal technology, expanding customer base, and Bitcoin purchases, but it simply isn't bringing in enough revenue to support its sky-high valuations. Therefore, it's smarter to sell KULR's stock than to buy a new position or hold it in anticipation of bigger gains.