In the 1960s, weather scientists found that the chaotic nature of Earth's atmosphere would put a limit on how far into the future their forecasts might peer. Two weeks seemed to be the limit. Still, by the early 2000s, the great difficulty of the undertaking kept reliable forecasts restricted to about a week. Now, a new artificial intelligence tool from DeepMind , a Google company in London that develops AI applications, has smashed through the old barriers and achieved what its makers call unmatched skill and speed in devising 15-day weather forecasts. They report in the journal Nature on Wednesday that their new model can, among other things, outperform the world's best forecasts meant to track deadly storms and save lives. "It's a big deal," said Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the DeepMind research. "It's an important step forward." In 2019, Emanuel and six other experts, writing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, argued that advancing the development of reliable forecasts to a length of 15 days from 10 days would have "enormous socioeconomic benefits" by helping the public avoid the worst effects of extreme weather. Ilan Price, the new paper's lead author and a senior research scientist at DeepMind, described the new AI agent, which the team calls GenCast , as much faster than traditional methods. "And it's more accurate," he added. 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Rémi Lam, the lead scientist on that project and one of a dozen co-authors on the new paper, described the company's weather team as having made surprisingly fast progress. Discover the stories of your interest Blockchain 5 Stories Cyber-safety 7 Stories Fintech 9 Stories E-comm 9 Stories ML 8 Stories Edtech 6 Stories "I'm a little bit reluctant to say it, but it's like we've made decades worth of improvements in one year," he said in an interview. "We're seeing really, really rapid progress." The world leader in atmospheric prediction is the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Comparative tests regularly show that its projections exceed all others in accuracy. DeepMind tested its new AI program against the center's Ensemble Prediction System -- a service that 35 nations rely on to produce their own weather forecasts. The team compared how the 15-day forecasts of both systems performed in predicting a designated set of 1,320 global wind speeds, temperatures and other atmospheric features. The Nature report said the new agent outdid the center's forecasts 97.2% of time. The AI achievement, the authors wrote, "helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting." Matthew Chantry, an AI specialist at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said his agency was already adopting some of its features. "That's how highly we think of it," he said. Machine learning in general, Chantry added, was accelerating human bids to outmaneuver some of nature's deadliest threats. DeepMind's weather advance comes two months after other AI researchers in the company shared the Nobel Prize for chemistry. The scientific news forms a bright counterpoint to public fears of AI stealing jobs and driving humans to the edge of obsolescence. The natural chaos in Earth's atmosphere means that all weather forecasts, including the two-week variety, grow less reliable as they peer further into the future. Even so, AccuWeather offers 90-day forecasts. And the Old Farmer's Almanac says it can gaze ahead 60 days. DeepMind backs its 15-day declaration with pages of evidence laid out in one of the world's leading science journals, Nature. So too, Google posted an online blog that details the AI advance. The new GenCast agent takes a radically different approach from mainstream forecasting, which uses room-size supercomputers that turn millions of global observations and calculations into predictions. Instead, the DeepMind agent runs on smaller machines and studies the atmospheric patterns of the past to learn the subtle dynamics that result in the planet's weather. The DeepMind team trained GenCast on a massive archive of weather data curated by the European center. The training period went from 1979 to 2018, or 40 years. The team then tested how well the agent could predict 2019's weather. Such training empowers all types of generative AI -- the kind that's creative. Mimicking how humans learn, it spots patterns in mountains of data and then makes new, original material that has similar characteristics. Lam of DeepMind noted that GenCast's generative skills were rooted in factual data gathered from nature rather than the internet, notorious for its confusing mix of facts, biases and fallacies. "We have a ground truth," he said of its dependence on natural phenomena. "We have a reality check." The new agent's forecasts are probabilistic -- like those on the weather apps of smartphones. For instance, GenCast can give a range of percentages for the likelihood of rain in a specific region on a given day. In contrast, its DeepMind predecessor, GraphCast, offers a single forecast for a particular time and location. Known as deterministic, its method is essentially a best guess that gives no indication of the prediction's uncertainty. Probabilistic forecasts are considered more nuanced and sophisticated than the deterministic kind, and are more difficult to create. Typically, a GenCast forecast draws from a set of 50 or more predictions that produce its range of probabilities. Despite all the effort that goes into those calculations, Price of DeepMind said, the new agent can generate a 15-day forecast in minutes compared with hours for a supercomputer. That can make its projections much timelier -- an advantage in tracking fast-moving storms. GenCast, the team says, can predict with great accuracy the paths of hurricanes, which annually can take thousands of lives and rack up hundreds of billions of dollars in property damage. The Nature paper said comparative testing showed that its hurricane track predictions consistently outdid those of the European center. Emanuel of MIT said the DeepMind team failed to mention that its new agent provides little information about hurricane intensity. Price, the paper's lead author, concurred. He said the problem lay in training data limitations on hurricane wind speed. The weather team, he added, was confident it could devise a solution. GenCast will most likely complement current methods rather than replace them, Emanuel argued. Each type, he said, has its own strengths and weaknesses in predicting the riot of variable phenomena that constitute the weather. "The status quo isn't going to disappear," Emanuel said. "Perhaps the two of them working together will prove to be the best way forward." For its part, the DeepMind team acknowledged its heavy reliance on the conventional world of weather readings -- noting, for instance, how its AI training data comes from the giant European weather archive. Its computations also start with a snapshot of the world's current weather, what the team calls initial conditions. The team hopes that other weather experts will test its new technology. Price said that the DeepMind team would share online its AI agent and underlying computer code. He added that GenCast's weather predictions would soon be posted publicly on Google's Earth Engine and Big Query, giving scientists access to the new forecasts. "We're excited for the community to use and build on our research," Price said. Chantry of the European center said Google and DeepMind might have hidden their AI advance behind a wall of corporate secrecy, using it "to make a better weather forecast for their own apps and telling no one how they did it." Instead, he added, the emerging field has embraced a public openness that's helping "lots and lots of people engage in this revolution."Home | EFF confident of winning Phala Phala case in ConCourt Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema says that he is confident that the party will win the Phala Phala farm theft case against President Cyril Ramaphosa at the Constitutional Court in Johannesburg. The EFF is challenging Parliament’s decision to forego an impeachment investigation into President Ramaphosa. Malema told scores of supporters outside the apex court that it must take a legitimate decision on the Phala-Phala matter. “There is no decision that Parliament must take if it is not constitutional. As long as it is not constitutional, this Constitutional Court has got jurisdiction to decide on this matter. It is not political interference; it is the Constitutional Court making sure that Parliament complies with the requirement of the Constitution.” VIDEO | Other matters that Malema raised during his address outside ConCourt include the role of the party in SA politics: ‘Situation of mootness’ Meanwhile, in court, Advocate Andrew Breitenbach for the National Assembly and the Speaker argued that the legal challenge launched by the EFF is moot due to the time that has elapsed since the Section 89 report on Phala Phala was not adopted by the National Assembly. In 2022, the national legislature voted not to adopt the independent panel report led by retired Chief Justice, Sandile Ngcbobo that found that there is a prima facie case for which President Cyril Ramaphosa must answer for the events that took place on his Phala Phala farm. Breitanbach explained what he sees as the difficulty with the challenge by the red berets. “Our basic problem with the lateness is that the 6th Parliament came to an end, with it all the business of the 6th Parliament, the composition of the 7th Parliament elected on the 29th of May is wholly different to the 6th Parliament and there can therefore be no resuscitation of this motion without doing violence to that very fundamental part of our democracy. Every five years we have an election, and a new National Assembly is elected. It’s very differently constituted, so we are in a situation of impossibility, mootness.” Supporters also weighed in on the matter: ‘Matter fundamentally flawed’ Legal counsel for President Cyril Ramaphosa argued that the National Assembly was correct not to adopt the Section 89 independent panel report in the Phala Phala matter as it was fundamentally flawed. Advocate Geoff Budlender argued that Ramaphosa did not have the intention of breaking the law. “But even if one assumes, for the sake of argument, that this interpretation is the correct one, that doesn’t answer the question of whether the President deliberately and in bad faith adopted the wrong interpretation of the term ‘paid work’. The president’s farming activities have never been a secret. He’s published a book of photographs of the particular breed of cattle in which he has a particular interest. It seems very unlikely that he deliberately and in bad faith ignored the law and then published his activities. Perhaps more likely is that he genuinely thought that he was entitled to act as he did, and he lacked dolus and bad faith. Again, the question is not whether the president’s interpretation was right or wrong, it is whether his interpretation was in bad faith.” SABC © 2024
( MENAFN - The Peninsula) QNA Doha: The registration for the 16th edition of Qatar International Falcons and Hunting Festival (Marmi 2025) came to a close today, December 26. Under the patronage of HE sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani, the festival will take place from January 1 to February 1, 2025, at Marmi area in Sealine. The final day of registration was held at Qatari Al Gannas Association headquarters in Katara Cultural Village, with strong participation from falconers across Qatar and GCC countries. Chairman of the Marmi Festival, Muteb Al Qahtani, explained in a statement that the number of participants in each competition will be determined individually, followed by a draw, and results will be published and shared with participants. He also mentioned that the date for Young Falconer Championship would be announced later, but registration will take place on-site. Al Qahtani revealed that generous prizes have been allocated for the festivals winners, supported by the Social & Sport Contribution Fund (DAAM). The winner of Al-Muzayen competition in "Al-Hor Ashqar" category will receive QR 700,000, the second-place winner will receive QR 500,000, and third-place winner will receive QR 300,000. For "Al-Hor Adham and Black" category, the first-place winner will receive QR 400,000, the second-place winner will receive QR 300,000, and the third-place winner will receive QR 200,000. In Haddad Al-Tahaddi competition, the qualifier will win a cash prize of QR 100,000, along with two Lexus cars for the final, and a QR 100,000 prize for the winner of the final. The winner of Al-Talaa competition will take home QR 300,000, the second-place winner will receive QR 200,000, and the third-place winner will earn QR 100,000. In the local Al Daou competition across seven rounds, the first-place winner will receive QR 200,000, the second-place winner will receive QR 100,000, and the third-place winner will receive QR 50,000. For the international Al Daou competition, the first-place winner will receive QR 100,000, the second-place winner will get QR 70,000, and the third-place winner will be awarded QR 50,000. The winner of Elite Race will receive QR 300,000, with the second-place winner taking QR 200,000, and the third-place winner receiving QR 100,000. In Saluki Racing competition, the first-place winner in each category will receive QR 100,000, the second-place winner will take QR 70,000, and the third-place winner will receive QR 50,000. As for Young Falconer Championship, the first-place winner will be awarded QR 25,000, the second-place winner will get QR 20,000, the third-place winner will receive QAR 15,000, the fourth-place winner will take QR 10,000, and the fifth-place winner will earn QR 8,000. MENAFN26122024000063011010ID1109033623 Legal Disclaimer: MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.Genesis Bryant scores 27 and No. 19 Illinois women beat UMES 75-55 in Music City ClassicIBM and State of Illinois to Build National Quantum Algorithm Center in Chicago with Universities and Industries
OTTAWA — Incoming U.S. president Donald Trump is brushing off Ontario’s threat to restrict electricity exports in retaliation for sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods, as the province floats the idea of effectively barring sales of American alcohol. On Wednesday, Premier Doug Ford said Ontario is contemplating restricting electricity exports to Michigan, New York state and Minnesota if Trump follows through on a threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada. “That’s OK if he that does that. That’s fine,” Trump told American network CNBC when asked Thursday about Ford’s remarks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. “The United States is subsidizing Canada and we shouldn’t have to do that,” Trump added. “And we have a great relationship. I have so many friends in Canada, but we shouldn’t have to subsidize a country,” he said, claiming this amounts to more than US$100 billion annually in unspecified subsidies. Meanwhile, an official in the Ford government says it’s considering restricting the Liquor Control Board of Ontario from buying American-made alcohol. The province says the Crown agency is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world. The province also says it could restrict exports of Canadian critical minerals required for electric-vehicle batteries, and bar American companies from provincial procurement. Ford doubled down Thursday on the idea of cutting off energy exports. The province says that in 2013, Ontario exported enough energy to power 1.5 million homes in those three states. “It’s a last resort,” Ford said. “We’re sending a message to the U.S. (that if) you come and attack Ontario, you attack livelihoods of people in Ontario and Canadians, we are going to use every tool in our tool box to defend Ontarians and Canadians. Let’s hope it never comes to that.” Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce said the province would rather have co-operation with the U.S., but has mechanisms to “end power sale into the U.S. market” the day Trump takes office on Jan. 20. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith ruled out following suit. “Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports,” she said. “Our approach is one of diplomacy, not threats.” Michael Sabia, president and CEO of Hydro-Québec, said “it’s not our current intention” to cut off Quebec’s exports to Massachusetts or New York state, but he conceded it might be possible. “Our intention is to respect those contracts, both because they’re legally binding, but also because it’s part of, in our view, a sound relationship with the United States,” he said. “It’s a questionable instrument to use in a trade conflict.” Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew would not directly say whether Manitoba would threaten to withhold hydroelectric exports. “We are preparing our list and starting to think through what those options should look like,” he said. “I’m not going to make specific news today about items that we’re looking at.” Kinew added that some premiers felt retaliatory measures wouldn’t work in a call Trudeau held Wednesday. Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said “we have no interest in stopping” the export of energy to the U.S., adding that a trade war would hurt both countries. “We hope it is just bluster; we’re preparing as if it is not,” he said. Canada supplies more oil to the U.S. than any other country. About 60 per cent of U.S. crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85 per cent of U.S. electricity imports as well. Canada sold $170 billion worth of energy products last year to the U.S. It also has 34 critical minerals and metals the Pentagon is eager for. Trump has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tax on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico unless they stem the flow of migrants and drugs. Canadian officials have said it is unfair to lump Canada in with Mexico. U.S. customs agents seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the Canadian border last fiscal year, compared with 21,100 pounds at the Mexican border. Canada since has promised more border security spending to address Trump’s border concerns. Ford said that will include more border and police officers, as well as drones and sniffer dogs. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 12, 2024. — With files from The Associated Press, Liam Casey in Toronto, Lisa Johnson in Edmonton and Steve Lambert in Winnipeg. Dylan Robertson, The Canadian Press