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game changer

2025-01-24
game changer
game changer I t’s been well publicised that 2024 was a big year for elections , with billions of people in at least 60 countries going to the polls . The year started with votes in the world’s largest country, India, and is ending in the wake of an annulled election in Romania over accusations of Russian interference. As a data correspondent, I spent most of this year covering what were arguably the two most influential polls: the UK general election in July, and the US presidential election in November. From an outside glance, the two electoral events had little in common; not least because Sir Keir Starmer and President-elect Donald Trump are far apart in most aspects of their character. In the UK, Labour won by a landslide ; a majority of 156 seats, and a 10 per cent majority in national vote share. In the US, Trump dominated the electoral college , but in the end won just a 1.6 per cent national majority over Kamala Harris. Indeed, these elections shared some key similarities which may point to trends in the future of global politics, particularly in the digital age. Before comparing the common characteristics of the UK and US elections , we must acknowledge that the choice of leaders is what largely sets them apart. This summer, Brits ushered in a moderate left-wing government led by a man who, for all his undeniable achievements , was suggested to be “too boring” to be Prime Minister . The picture across the pond is almost a total opposite. Trump was elected to a second term - a right-wing candidate who is credited with pushing Republicans further right, and whose actions over the years can be described as many things but not boring. Their backgrounds are also a point of difference. Sir Keir proudly waved his working-class roots as the son of a toolmaker, who diligently climbed the legal ladder and reached the head of the Crown Prosecution Service. Famously, Trump r eceived “a small loan of a million dollars” from his own mogul father, which the president-elect developed into a business career spanning from a real estate empire, to hosting The Apprentice, and the short-lived Trump University. Both individuals, of distinct backgrounds and skills, were chosen by their electorate to be leaders. One embodies the rule of law, while the other rejects (or indeed, bulldozes) the institutional rulebook. To some degree at least, both reflect the values of their electorate. On both sides of the pond, this year’s elections represented some degree of a win for the right. In the US, Republicans swept the Executive, Congress and Senate. In the UK, the Conservatives’ fall from grace made way for a “new” right. Men have typically been considered a key support base for Trump, but this year, this extended to the younger generation too. Nearly half of men under aged 18-30 voted for Trump, according to AP VoteCast; up from a third in 2020. Yet for some time, Trump was not the only option available to more Conservative voters. Until mid-July, Robert F Kennedy Jr. was performing unprecedentedly well in the polls , hovering between 9 and 10 per cent of the vote. When Kamala Harris entered the race, his polling popularity split in half, but RFK Jr was still maintaining a healthy 5 per cent of vote intention. With the election considered to be on a knife’s edge, this percentage could have made the difference for either major candidate. His supporters were made up of both traditionally liberal and conservative voters , who may have been united by a frustration with the status quo. But ultimately, RFK Jr endorsed Trump, aligning himself with the political right - and possibly securing himself a position as Health Secretary . Meanwhile in the UK, left-wing Labour won by a landslide, with a crippling historic defeat for the Tories at just 121 seats in Parliament. But all was not lost for the political right. Nigel Farage’s right-wing party Reform UK also broke through the fray by winning five seats, above most expectations. Overall, men also swung farther to Reform (by +15 per cent) than women (+11 per cent); with wins among all male age groups, from men under 24 (9 per cent) to over 55s+ (20 per cent), according to the Ipsos exit poll. More pressingly, Reform won 14.3 per cent of the national vote share ; just a few points behind the Tories (23.8 per cent). Whether this momentum can be sustained into the next election remains to be seen. This could, however, set the stage for a new form of the UK’s political right, which has been dominated by the Conservatives for over a century. Labour in the UK and the Democrats in the US waged very different campaigns; and namely, Sir Keir’s party won the election, while Ms Harris’ lost. Yet both major left-wing parties lost support from one of their key demographics: minority voters. In the UK, the Independent revealed that Labour lost nearly a third of its existing support from Black and Asian voters compared to the 2019 election. The ethnic minority Labour vote dropped from 64 per cent to 46 per cent; despite Labour’s overall success. In fact, +13 per cent more ethnic minority voters chose Independent candidates this year, compared to a boost of just + 2 per cent among white voters. Jabeer Butt, chief executive of the Race Equality Foundation, pointed to a weak stance on the war in Gaza and Labour’s internal race rows as a reason for this disillusionment. “It should concern Labour that they have not only lost votes from Asian communities, but they have lost seats [to Independents],” he told the Independent. In the United States, Democrats lost favour with the core Latino voter group , leading to a nearly even split between Harris-Trump support. NBC’s exit polls showed that Harris won 53 per cent of the Latino vote to Trump’s 45 per cent; a far cry from Biden’s 33-point lead among Latinos in 2020. Though the extent of concerns about a substantial shift to the right among Black voters appeared to be overblown, 1 in 5 Black men did vote for Trump (an increase of 2 per cent from 2020, and up 7 per cent from 2016). This specifically represented a growing divide between Black women (7 per cent of whom voted for Trump) and Black men; with some commentators arguing that a shift to the right among Black men was inevitable , due to culturally conservative and economically liberal traits. Gaza also played a part in the US election. The Uncommitted campaign urged voters to withhold their votes from the Democrats, as an act of protest against Biden’s approach to the war in Gaza. While it is impossible to say how many non-votes were decided for this reason, there is one place it certainly made a difference. Dearborn, Michigan was considered a Democratic stronghold with a 55 per cent Arab population. This year, Trump won the city by 2,500 votes; the first time a Republican has won since 2000. Harris lost a third of the Dearborn vote from Joe Biden in 2020 (down to 36 per cent from 69 per cent), while third-party candidate Jill Stein took 15 per cent of the vote in the city. In both the UK and US, then, Labour and Democrats lost favour with minority voters, for a variety of reasons. Both parties had relied on non-white voters as reliable supporters; but this may not be an easy win in future elections.

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New On The Block Dental supply maker Patterson Companies Inc PDCO announced Thursday that it is exploring strategic options, including a sale or merger, to boost shareholder value. The company disclosed the deal process as part of its second-quarter financial report . Updates From The Block EasyHotel is close to being sold. A billionaire-backed firm called London & Regional Properties is bidding against a fund managed by Tristan Capital Partners . The auction process is in its final stages, according to Bloomberg . Ubisoft Entertainment SA UBSFF is in talks with Tencent Holdings ADR TCEHY over a potential buyout . According to Reuters, the deal would allow Ubisoft’s founders, the Guillemot family, to retain control if the company goes private. This development follows a difficult year for Ubisoft , marked by staff layoffs, disappointing sales, and the closure of several studios. Ubisoft’s stock jumped 14% after news of the buyout discussions emerged, as per Benzinga Pro. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. LSPD is reorganizing. A majority of the restructuring charges will be incurred in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The focus remains on “reducing the complexity of our business,” said Lightspeed founder and CEO Dax Dasilva said . An analyst told Payments Dive that the intent is to set Lightspeed up for a sale. JPMorgan and RBC are advising the process, according to Bloomberg . See Also: NASA Mission To Land Humans On Moon Delayed – Artemis 3 Now Slated For... Off The Block Novavax, Inc. NVAX agreed to sell its Bohumil, Czech Republic manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk A/S NVO for $200 million . The deal includes transferring assets, including a 150,000-square-foot factory and the existing workforce . Schneider National, Inc. SNDR disclosed that it has agreed to acquire Cowan Systems, LLC and its affiliates for approximately $390 million in cash, subject to adjustments . The deal also includes a separate purchase of related real estate assets for $31 million . Renewi , a London-listed waste management company, agreed to a preliminary takeover offer from Macquarie Asset Management that values it at 700.9 million pounds ($888.8 million). Renewi had been exploring the sale of certain assets (i.e. its UK Municipal division ) in order to reduce debt and focus on its core recycling business in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Portugal. Bankruptcy Block Eegee's , a beloved drive-through restaurant chain founded in Tucson in 1971, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and closed five locations—four in Tucson and one in Phoenix. Despite challenges, Eegee's continues to operate over 20 locations in Tucson and Phoenix. Local media reported that the company owes significant debts, including over $1.2 million to Sysco and hundreds of thousands more to other vendors, with total liabilities ranging between $10 million and $50 million. CEO Chris Westcott cited various pressures as reasons for the restructuring, but local residents blamed 39 North Capital , Eegee's owner since 2018. Trucking company Kal Freight filed for bankruptcy protection, saying its financial condition has been hurt by unprofitable efforts to become a vertically integrated business and a now-questionable investment in additional vehicles during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The closely held company also faces litigation, including foreclosure actions, according to the Wall Street Journal citing a filing Thursday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston. Proma Group has acquired Germany’s Recaro Automotive GmbH , enabling the company to exit bankruptcy and resume operations across Europe starting January 2025. Recaro's aftermarket seats will return to the market in January, with OEM production shifting to Italy where Proma is based. Several employees from Recaro’s Sales and Technology departments will remain in the Stuttgart area to ensure a smooth transition and customer support. Recaro’s operations in North America and Japan remain unaffected. Proma Group CEO Luca Pino praised the partnership as a blend of German industrial and Italian manufacturing excellence. Notes From The Block Bain & Company did a swell job putting M&A telecom trends into perspective this week. Here’s what we learned: Global deal value “surged” from about $24 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 to $90 billion in the same period in 2024, the firm noted. The Americas accounted for 63% of the global total. Financial investors are acquiring tower and fixed assets. This trend underscores confidence in digital infrastructure's business fundamentals despite headwinds. The $20.3 billion deal between Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. FYBR and Verizon Communications Inc. VZ is the year's largest transaction so far. Scale deals accounted for nearly half of global deal value year to date; infrastructure divestments accounted for 22% of deal value through the first nine months of 2024 (36% of all deal value over the past five years); mobile and fixed divestments made up about 20% during that period. For the full report, click here . For last week’s Deal Dispatch , click here . Now Read : Bitcoin Flash Crash: Classic Bull Market Shakeout? © 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.I’d Happily Load Up on These 2 Canadian Stocks if They Fall

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"The air traffic control tower, the departure lounge — just a few meters from where we were — and the runway were damaged," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on social media. He added that he and U.N. colleagues were safe. "We will need to wait for the damage to the airport to be repaired before we can leave," he said, without mentioning the source of the bombardment. U.N. spokesperson Stephanie Tremblay later said the injured person was with the U.N. Humanitarian Air Service. Israel's army later told The Associated Press it wasn't aware that the WHO chief or delegation were at the location in Yemen. The Israeli strikes followed several days of Houthi launches setting off sirens in Israel. The Israeli military said in a statement it attacked infrastructure used by the Iran-backed Houthis at the international airport in Sanaa and ports in Hodeida, Al-Salif and Ras Qantib, along with power stations, claiming they were used to smuggle in Iranian weapons and for the entry of senior Iranian officials. Israel's military added it had "capabilities to strike very far from Israel's territory — precisely, powerfully, and repetitively." The strikes, carried out more than 1,000 miles from Jerusalem, came a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said "the Houthis, too, will learn what Hamas and Hezbollah and Assad's regime and others learned" as his military has battled those more powerful proxies of Iran. The Houthi-controlled satellite channel al-Masirah reported multiple deaths and showed broken windows, collapsed ceilings and a bloodstained floor and vehicle. Iran's foreign ministry condemned the strikes. The U.S. military also targeted the Houthis in recent days. The U.N. says the targeted ports are important entryways for humanitarian aid for Yemen, the poorest Arab nation that plunged into a civil war in 2014. Over the weekend, 16 people were wounded when a Houthi missile hit a playground in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, while other missiles and drones were shot down. Last week, Israeli jets struck Sanaa and Hodeida, killing nine people, calling it a response to previous Houthi attacks. The Houthis also have been targeting shipping on the Red Sea corridor, calling it solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The U.N. Security Council has an emergency meeting Monday in response to an Israeli request that it condemn the Houthi attacks and Iran for supplying them weapons. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike killed five Palestinian journalists outside a hospital in Gaza overnight, the territory's Health Ministry said. The strike hit a car outside Al-Awda Hospital in the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. The journalists worked for local news outlet Al-Quds Today, a television channel affiliated with the Islamic Jihad militant group. Islamic Jihad is a smaller and more extreme ally of Hamas and took part in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that ignited the war. Israel's military identified four of the men as combat propagandists and said that intelligence, including a list of Islamic Jihad operatives found by soldiers in Gaza, confirmed that all five were affiliated with the group. Associated Press footage showed the incinerated shell of a van, with press markings visible on the back doors. The Committee to Protect Journalists says more than 130 Palestinian reporters have been killed since the start of the war. Israel hasn't allowed foreign reporters to enter Gaza except on military embeds. Israel banned the pan-Arab Al Jazeera network and accuses six of its Gaza reporters of being militants. The Qatar-based broadcaster denies the allegations and accuses Israel of trying to silence its war coverage, which has focused heavily on civilian casualties from Israeli military operations. Separately, Israel's military said a 35-year-old reserve soldier was killed during fighting in central Gaza. A total of 389 soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed across the border, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting about 250. About 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead. Israel's air and ground offensive has killed more than 45,000 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry. It says more than half the fatalities are women and children, but doesn't say how many of the dead were fighters. The offensive caused widespread destruction and hunger and drove around 90% of the population of 2.3 million from their homes. Hundreds of thousands are packed into squalid camps along the coast, with little protection from the cold, wet winter. Also Thursday, people mourned eight Palestinians killed by Israeli military operations in and around Tulkarem in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The Israeli military said it opened fire after militants attacked soldiers, and it was aware of uninvolved civilians who were harmed in the raid.

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