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PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The Philadelphia Phillies have signed closer Jordan Romano to a one-year contract, making a short-term bet that the right-hander can return to form following a right elbow injury. The Phillies announced the deal on Monday. They did not provide the terms of the agreement, but it is reportedly worth $8.5 million. An All-Star in 2022 and 2023, Romano spent the first six seasons of his major league career with the Toronto Blue Jays. He has 105 career saves and a 2.90 ERA in 231 relief appearances. Of the 17 pitchers in the majors with at least 100 save opportunities since 2019, Romano’s 88.98% save percentage ranks second, trailing only Josh Hader (187 for 210, 89.04%). Among all pitchers in baseball since 2019, Romano’s 105 saves rank ninth. The 31-year-old Romano was limited to just eight saves in 15 games last season. He had arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in July. Romano's arrival could lead to the departures of one or both of Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman from Philadelphia. The former All-Star relievers both closed games for the Phillies last season but each suffered epic meltdowns in the postseason. Both pitchers are free agents. AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlbPolice arrested a “strong person of interest” Monday in the brazen Manhattan killing of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO after a quick-thinking McDonald’s employee in Pennsylvania alerted authorities to a customer who was found with a weapon and writings linking him to the ambush. The 26-year-old man had a gun believed to be the one used in the killing and writings suggesting his anger with corporate America, police officials said. He was taken into custody after police got a tip that he was eating at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at a news conference. Police identified the suspect as Luigi Mangione. Mangione was born and raised in Maryland, has ties to San Francisco, and his last known address is in Honolulu, Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said at a news briefing. People are also reading... Here's the latest: Mangione began shaking when police asked if he had been in New York recently, court papers say When an officer asked Mangione if he’d been to New York recently, he “became quiet and started to shake,” the court documents say. Mangione is charged with weapons, forgery and other charges in Pennsylvania A police criminal complaint charged him with forgery, carrying firearms without a license, tampering with records or identification, possessing an instrument of crime and providing false identification to law enforcement. Mangione arrives at court Video posted on the social platform X shows a handcuffed Mangione arriving at the Blair County Courthouse in Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania. Recent cases su ggest that it could be a while before Mangione is returned to New York For example, it took about 10 months to extradite a man charged with stabbing two workers at the Museum of Modern Art in 2022. The suspect, Gary Cabana, was also arrested in Pennsylvania, where he was charged with setting his Philadelphia hotel room on fire. Cabana was sent back to New York after he pleaded guilty to an arson charge in Pennsylvania. Manhattan prosecutors could seek to expedite the process by indicting Mangione for Thompson’s killing while he’s still in custody of Pennsylvania authorities. They could then obtain what’s known as a supreme court warrant or fugitive warrant to get him back to New York. Former classmate of Mangione says 'he had everything going for him’ Freddie Leatherbury hasn’t spoken to Mangione since they graduated in 2016 from Gilman School in Maryland. He said Mangione was a smart, friendly and athletic student who came from a wealthy family, even by the private school’s standards. “Quite honestly, he had everything going for him,” Leatherbury said. Leatherbury said he was stunned when a friend shared the news of their former classmate’s arrest. “He does not seem like the kind of guy to do this based on everything I’d known about him in high school,” Leatherbury said. Mangione comes from a prominent Maryland family One of his cousins is Republican Maryland state legislator Nino Mangione, a spokesperson for the delegate’s office confirmed Monday. Luigi Mangione is one of 37 grandchildren of Nick Mangione Sr., according to a 2008 obituary. Mangione Sr. grew up poor in Baltimore’s Little Italy and rose after his World War II naval service to become a millionaire real estate developer and philanthropist, according to a 1995 profile by the Baltimore Sun. He and his wife Mary Cuba Mangione, who died in 2023, directed their philanthropy through the Mangione Family Foundation, according to a statement from Loyola University commemorating her death. They donated to a variety of causes, ranging from Catholic organizations to higher education to the arts. A man who answered the door to the office of the Mangione Family Foundation declined to comment Monday evening. Mangione Sr. was known for Turf Valley Resort, a sprawling luxury retreat and conference center outside Baltimore that he purchased in 1978. The father of 10 children, Nick Mangione Sr. prepared his five sons — including Luigi Mangione’s father, Louis Mangione — to help manage the family business, according to a 2003 Washington Post report. The Mangione family also purchased Hayfields Country Club north of Baltimore in 1986. On Monday afternoon, Baltimore County police officers had blocked off an entrance to the property, which public records link to Luigi Mangione’s parents. A swarm of reporters and photographers gathered outside the entrance. UnitedHealth Group comments on the arrest “Our hope is that today’s apprehension brings some relief to Brian’s family, friends, colleagues and the many others affected by this unspeakable tragedy,” a spokesperson for UnitedHealth Group said Monday. “We thank law enforcement and will continue to work with them on this investigation. We ask that everyone respect the family’s privacy as they mourn.” Baltimore’s Gilman School sends an email about Luigi Mangione’s arrest In an email to parents and alumni, Gilman headmaster Henry P.A. Smyth said it “recently” learned that Mangione, a 2016 graduate, was arrested in the CEO’s killing. “We do not have any information other than what is being reported in the news,” Smyth wrote. “This is deeply distressing news on top of an already awful situation. Our hearts go out to everyone affected.” Mangione earned undergraduate and graduate degrees at the University of Pennsylvania Mangione, a high school valedictorian from a Maryland prep school, earned undergraduate and graduate degrees in computer science in 2020 from the University of Pennsylvania, a spokesman told The Associated Press on Monday. He had learned to code in high school and helped start a club at Penn for people interested in gaming and game design, according to a 2018 story in Penn Today, a campus publication. His posts also suggest that he belonged to the fraternity Phi Kappa Psi. They also show him taking part in a 2019 program at Stanford University, and in photos with family and friends in Hawaii, San Diego, Puerto Rico, the New Jersey shore and other destinations. What is a ghost gun? Police said the suspect arrested Monday had a ghost gun , a type of weapon that can be assembled at home from parts without a serial number, making them difficult to trace. The critical component in building an untraceable gun is what’s known as the lower receiver. Some are sold in do-it-yourself kits and the receivers are typically made from metal or polymer. Altoona police describe how they arrested the suspect Altoona police say officers were dispatched to a McDonald’s on Monday morning in response to reports of a male matching the description of the man wanted in connection with the United Healthcare CEO’s killing in New York City. In a news release, police say officers made contact with the man, who was then arrested on unrelated charges. The Altoona Police Department says it’s cooperating with local, state, and federal agencies. Police are investigating the path the suspect took to Pennsylvania “This just happened this morning. We’ll be working, backtracking his steps from New York to Altoona, Pennsylvania,” Kenny said. Suspect will face gun charges in Altoona, Pennsylvania, police say “And at some point we’ll work out through extradition to bring him back to New York to face charges here, working with the Manhattan district attorney’s office,” NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said. Suspect had a ‘ghost gun,’ police say “As of right now, the information we’re getting from Altoona is that the gun appears to be a ghost gun that may have been made on a 3D printer, capable of firing a 9 mm round,” NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said at a news briefing. Suspect had handwritten document that ‘speaks to both his motivation and mindset,’ police commissioner says The document suggested the suspect had “ill will toward corporate America,” police added. Police identify the suspect as Luigi Mangione Mangione, 26, was born and raised in Maryland, has ties to San Francisco, and his last known address in Honolulu, Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said at a news briefing. 26-year-old arrested with weapon ‘consistent with’ the gun used in killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Police have arrested a 26-year-old with a weapon “consistent with” the gun used in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson , New York City’s police commissioner says. Thompson , 50, died in a dawn ambush Wednesday as he walked to the company’s annual investor conference at Manhattan hotel. Thompson had traveled from Minnesota for the event. Man questioned in UnitedHealthcare CEO’s killing had writings critical of the industry, source says A man being questioned Monday in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson had writings that appeared to be critical of the health insurance industry, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press. The man also had a gun thought to be similar to the one used in the killing, the official said. Police apprehended the man after receiving a tip that he had been spotted at a McDonald’s near Altoona, Pennsylvania, about 233 miles (375 kilometers) west of New York City, said the official, who wasn’t authorized to discuss details of the investigation and spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity. Along with the gun, police found a silencer and fake IDs, according to the official. — Michael R. Sisak Along with the gun, police found a silencer, fake IDs and writings apparently critical of the health insurance industry That’s also according to the law enforcement official. — Michael R. Sisak Police took the man into custody after getting a tip that he’d been spotted at a McDonald’s That’s according to a law enforcement official. — Michael R. Sisak The NYPD is sending detectives to Pennsylvania to question the person taken into custody New York City Mayor Eric Adams is expected to address this development at a previously scheduled afternoon news briefing in Manhattan. What type of rewards are there for information on the police’s suspect? While still looking to identify the suspect, the FBI has offered a $50,000 reward for information leading to his arrest and conviction. That’s on top of a $10,000 reward offered by the NYPD. In the days since the shooting, police turned to the public for help by releasing photos and video That included footage of the attack, as well as images of someone at a Starbucks beforehand. Photos taken in the lobby of a hostel on Manhattan’s Upper West Side showed the person grinning after removing his mask, police said. NYPD returns to search Central Park NYPD dogs and divers returned to New York’s Central Park today while the dragnet for Thompson’s killer stretched into a sixth day. Investigators have been combing the park since the Wednesday shooting and searching at least one of its ponds for three days, looking for evidence that may have been thrown into it. What type of gun did the shooter use? Police say the shooter used a 9 mm pistol that resembled the guns farmers use to put down animals without causing a loud noise. Police said they had not yet found the gun itself. Ammunition found near Thompson’s body bore the words “delay,” “deny” and “depose,” mimicking a phrase used by insurance industry critics . Police question man with gun thought to be similar to one used in killing of UnitedHeathcare CEO A man with a gun thought to be similar to the one used in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was taken into police custody Monday for questioning in Pennsylvania, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press. The man is being held in the area of Altoona, Pennsylvania, about 233 miles (375 kilometers) west of New York City, the official said. The official was not authorized to discuss details of the ongoing investigation and spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity. The development came as dogs and divers returned Monday to New York’s Central Park while the dragnet for Thompson’s killer stretched into a sixth day. — Michael R. Sisak Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission. Get local news delivered to your inbox! Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter.

NoneNetflix signs US broadcast deal with FIFA for the Women's World Cup in 2027 and 2031 GENEVA (AP) — Netflix has secured the U.S. broadcasting rights to the Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031 as the streaming giant continues its push into live sports. Graham Dunbar, The Associated Press Dec 20, 2024 10:47 AM Share by Email Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Print Share via Text Message FILE - Spain's Aitana Bonmati celebrates after scoring a goal, during the women's Group C match between Spain and Japan, at La Beaujoire Stadium, during the 2024 Summer Olympics Thursday, July 25, 2024, in Nantes, France. (AP Photo/Jeremias Gonzalez, File) GENEVA (AP) — Netflix has secured the U.S. broadcasting rights to the Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031 as the streaming giant continues its push into live sports. The deal announced Friday is the most significant FIFA has signed with a streaming service for a major tournament. The value was not given, though international competitions in women’s soccer have struggled to draw high-value offers. “Bringing this iconic tournament to Netflix isn’t just about streaming matches,” its chief content officer Bela Bajaria said in a statement. “It’s also about celebrating the players, the culture and the passion driving the global rise of women’s sport.” Netflix dipped into live sports last month with more than 60 million households watching a heavily hyped boxing match between retired heavyweight legend Mike Tyson and social media personality Jake Paul. Some viewers reported streaming problems , however. Netflix also will broadcast two NFL games on Christmas Day: the Kansas City Chiefs at the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens at the Houston Texans. That’s part of a three-year deal announced in May. World Cups are typically broadcast on free-to-air public networks to reach the biggest audiences, and the last women's edition in 2023 earned FIFA less than 10% of the men's 2022 World Cup. FIFA president Gianni Infantino had publicly criticized public broadcasters , especially in Europe, for undervaluing offers to broadcast the 2023 tournament that was played in Australia and New Zealand. That tournament was broadcast by Fox in the U.S. “This agreement sends a strong message about the real value of the FIFA Women’s World Cup and the global women’s game,” Infantino said. The World Cup rights mark another major step in Netflix’s push into live programming. It’s recipe that Netflix has cooked up to help sell more advertising, a top priority for the company since it introduced a low-priced version of its streaming service that includes commercials two years ago. The ad-supported version is now the fastest growing part of Netflix’s service, although most of its 283 million worldwide subscribers till pay for higher-priced options without commercial. But Netflix is still trying to sell more ads to boost its revenue, which is expected to be about $30 billion. Netflix executives have predicted it might take two or three years before its ad sales become a major part of its revenue. Netflix expects to spend about $17 billion on programming this year — a budget that the Los Gatos, California, company once funneled almost entirely into scripted TV series and movies. But Netflix is now allocating a significant chunk of that money to sports and live events, a shift that has made it a formidable competitor to traditional media bidding for the same rights. FIFA will likely use the Netflix deal to drive talks with European broadcasters that likely will be hardball negotiations. Soccer finance expert Kieran Maguire, a co-host of The Price of Football podcast, suggested the deal was “a bit of a gamble" for FIFA and “saber-rattling” by Infantino. “(Netflix) get experience of football broadcasting, FIFA can say, ‘we are now partnering with a blue chip organization, so watch out you nasty Europeans,’” Maguire, an academic at the University of Liverpool, said in a telephone interview. FIFA and Infantino also want to raise the price of broadcast deals to help fund increased prize money and close the gender pay gap on the men’s World Cup. At the men’s 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the 32 team federations shared $440 million in prize money. For the women’s 2023 tournament , FIFA had a $152 million total fund for prize money, contributions to teams’ preparation costs and payments to players’ clubs. In FIFA’s financial accounts for 2023 , the soccer body reported total broadcasting revenue of $244 million. In the year of the men’s 2022 World Cup it was almost $2.9 billion. The next Women's World Cup will be a 32-team, 64-game tournament in 2027, played in Brazil from June 24-July 25. The U.S. originally bid jointly with Mexico. The 2031 host has not been decided, though the U.S. likely will bid for a tournament which FIFA is expected to try to expand to 48 teams. That would match the size of the 104-game format of the men's World Cup that debuts in 2026 in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Spain won the 2023 Women's World Cup after the U.S. won the two previous titles — in France in 2019 and Canada in 2015. More than 25 million viewers in the U.S. watched the 2015 World Cup final, a 5-2 win over Japan, played in Vancouver, Canada, in a time zone similarly favorable to Brazil. FIFA tried to sign Apple+ to an exclusive global deal to broadcast the inaugural 32-team Club World Cup which is being played in 11 U.S. cities next June and July. Broadcast networks showed little interest in the FIFA club event that will now be broadcast for free on streaming service DAZN, which is building closer business ties to Saudi Arabia. Ahead of the next Women's World Cup, Netflix will "produce exclusive documentary series in the lead-up to both tournaments, spotlighting the world’s top players, their journeys and the global growth of women’s football,” FIFA said. ___ AP Technology Writer Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this report. ___ AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer Graham Dunbar, The Associated Press See a typo/mistake? Have a story/tip? This has been shared 0 times 0 Shares Share by Email Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Print Share via Text Message Get your daily Victoria news briefing Email Sign Up More Soccer Expansion San Diego FC takes Ghanaian midfielder Manu Duah first in MLS SuperDraft Dec 20, 2024 11:30 AM Atlanta United brings back Ronny Deila to MLS as new coach Dec 20, 2024 10:44 AM New knockout format for European soccer competitions debuts with Conference League playoffs draw Dec 20, 2024 10:31 AM

The Green Bay Packers have shown very few weaknesses throughout the course of the 2024 NFL season so far. However, there has been one concern that has popped up from time to time on the defensive side of the ball. With Jaire Alexander struggling due to injury issues, the cornerback position has not been ideal. Looking ahead to the NFL offseason, it would not be shocking to see the Packers try to shore up the position. Health has become a major concern for Alexander over the last couple of years. He has been unable to stay on the field consistently. Eric Stokes has been solid but not great this season, while Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon are solid but not No. 1 options. All of that being said, who could Green Bay consider pursuing to bring in that level of talent at cornerback in the offseason? Green Bay Packers Urged to Poach DB from Los Angeles Chargers in 2025 Free Agency Bleacher Report has made an intriguing suggestion for the Green Bay Packers. They think that the NFC North contender should try to poach a cornerback from the Los Angeles Chargers. Kristian Fulton was the name that they tabbed as a potential 2025 free agency target for Green Bay. “With $63.7 million in projected 2025 cap space, Green Bay will likely take a long look at cornerbacks on the 2025 market. Kristian Fulton played extremely well in his first season with the Los Angeles Chargers before being sidelined with a hamstring injury. In eight games this season, he has allowed an opposing passer rating of only 73.4 in coverage. He’ll still be only 26 years old at the start of next season.” This would be a perfect move for the Green Bay Packers if they were able to get it done. So far this season with the Chargers, Fulton has played in eight games. He has racked up 18 tackles, an interception, and six defended passes. He’s young enough to be a long-term option and his play style would fit nicely in Jeff Hafley’s defensive schemes. More than likely, Fulton would also not be a bank breaking kind of free agency target. Fulton is likely going to have a fairly large market during free agency. There are quite a few teams around the NFL that could use help in the secondary. However, if he is available, is interested in signing with the Green Bay Packers, and would come at a reasonable cost, the front office should absolutely pursue him. This article first appeared on WI Sports Heroics and was syndicated with permission.Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed. Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Ordinary working citizens start to say, “Wait a minute, there is not enough left for my everyday expenses. The system needs to change.” Elections lead to the selection of politicians who want war, or who want to overturn the current system. The system then changes in a way that leads to less spending on healthcare and other complexities. if(window.innerWidthADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_atf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_atf" });';document.write(write_html);} In this post, I will try to explain a bit of the underlying problem and give some hints at what the simplification might look like. Part of the problem is too little energy supply. This is a problem that cannot be told to the public; it would be too distressing. In this post, I present the result of a recent academic study that has attempted to recalibrate the findings of the 1972 Limits to Growth study with updated data. Economies need both resources and human participants. Human populations tend to increase in number if conditions are favorable. When population grows, resources per capita, such as arable land and fresh water, tends to fall. Adding complexity helps an economy work around falling resources per capita. With added complexity, it is possible for resource extraction of many kinds to grow, at least for a time. Deeper wells can sometimes add more fresh water supply. Irrigation and fertilizer can be used to increase crop yields. International trade allows the possibility of getting resources from more distant lands. Adding debt allows factories to be built and to be paid for “after the fact,” using the sales of the goods produced by the factories. Ever-larger governments allow more roads, schools, and services of all kinds. The use of added complexity helps keep economies growing for a long time, but at some point, things start going wrong. Oil wells and other types of resource extraction become more expensive to build because the easiest to extract resources tend to be used first. Pollution becomes more of a problem. Universities start producing more graduates with advanced degrees than there are job openings paying enough to justify studying for those degrees. Healthcare costs become hugely expensive. Increasing interest on debt becomes a huge burden, both for governments and individual citizens. When added complexity reaches a limit, citizens sense a problem. They tend to vote the current governments out of power. Or they become rebellious in other ways. I think the world has already reached a complexity limit. When added complexity no longer has sufficient payback, the system seems to sense this and starts pushing economies in the opposite direction. Often, the wages of ordinary workers become too low, relative to the cost of living. They rebel and overthrow their governments. Or central governments may collapse, as the central government of the Soviet Union did in 1991. This happened after oil prices were low for an extended period. The Soviet Union was an oil exporter, depending on oil exports for tax revenue. Revenue from collectivized agriculture was underperforming, also. Thus, getting rid of a layer of government, or too many government programs, seems to be one common theme of simplification. Another issue today is international trade. Crude oil supplies per capita are low. Somehow, international trade (which uses crude oil) needs to be cut back. With inadequate total oil supplies available, it becomes very desirable to do manufacturing close to home, rather than at a distance. This is a major reason for the competition in manufacturing between the US and China. If the US can manufacture locally, it will provide jobs and save some of the limited world crude oil supply. Another issue is the oversupply of workers with advanced degrees, relative to the number of jobs requiring such degrees. A study released in early 2024 indicates that only about half of US college graduates are able to obtain a job requiring a college level degree within a year of graduation. In fact, the majority of those who cannot obtain a job requiring a college-level degree within a year after graduation remain underemployed 10 years after graduation. Pretty clearly, the number of college graduates needs to fall. I showed in Figure 1 that US healthcare costs are very high, but they have recently been on a plateau. Perhaps these high healthcare expenses might make sense if US life expectancies were longer than elsewhere, thanks to all this spending. In fact, US life expectancy at birth is lower than in any other advanced nation. The CIA Factbook ranks the US life expectancy as 49th from the top in 2024. Figure 3 (above) shows a chart I found several years ago, showing how US female life expectancy has been dropping, relative to other high-income countries. Figure 4 shows that US life expectancies have continued to fall relative to other advanced economies. Something is clearly going wrong with health in the United States. It is no wonder that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to “Make America Healthy Again.” There is also the question of the level of US healthcare spending, relative to GDP. The share for the US, from Figure 1, is about 17%. The shares for the EU, the UK, and Japan are each about 11% according to the World Bank. The share for Russia is about 7%; for China it is about 5%. Another issue mentioned in the introduction is the proportion of government spending that goes toward non-working individuals. The chart below shows how US Federal Government funds are spent. When the budget is prepared, often many of these programs are lumped together as “Mandatory Spending,” so we don’t see precisely what the spending is for. Typically, the arguments about spending are on the parts of the budget other than mandatory spending. The problem is that all parts need to be funded, one way or another. Social Security describes its program as largely pay as you go . Mostly, the payroll taxes collected from today’s workers are used to pay benefits to today’s recipients. Keeping the system working as it does today becomes a problem if the total amount of goods and services produced starts falling at some point. For example, if the total food supply at some point (say 2050) becomes too low, there is a question regarding which citizens should get inadequate food rations: the workers, or those receiving benefits under a pension program for the elderly. I would vote for the workers getting adequate food, if we expect them to continue to work. This issue suggests that at some point, the elderly may have to go back to work to get an adequate share of what is being produced. Donald Trump and his team clearly have a much different view of how the government should be operated than Joe Biden did. In particular, the new team would like to get rid of what they see as unneeded parts of the system. There seem to be many other parts of the world encountering somewhat similar political and funding difficulties. Germany is dealing with a collapse of government . France is facing political and budget crises . Even China’s economy is having huge difficulties . It is not only oil that is in short supply (Figure 2); coal is also in short supply, relative to world’s population (Figure 6). if(window.innerWidth ADVERTISEMENTfreestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: "oilprice_medrec_btf", slotId: "oilprice_medrec_btf" });`;document.write(write_html);} Uranium is in short supply, as well. The issue for uranium is that the world’s supply of nuclear warheads that could temporarily serve as a supplement to currently mined uranium is running short. These warheads belonged primarily to the US and to Russia, but Russia has sold a substantial amount of its warheads to the US, to be down-blended for use in nuclear power reactors. Without enough energy resources per person, the world will likely need to produce fewer goods and services in total. Some uses for energy products, and for the goods and services that can be made with energy products, need to disappear. Now, all parts of the world need to re-examine energy uses that are currently being made and look for uses that the economy can most easily get along without. For example, the step-down in oil consumption per capita that occurred in 2020 seems to be still having some effect. Some people are still working from home, saving oil that would be used for commuting. Some long-distance airline flights were eliminated, as well, particularly in Asia, reducing jet fuel consumption. The self-organizing economy tends to push the world in the direction of contraction. How this will work is not at all clear. Most people didn’t understand the response to Covid-19 as a way to cut back oil consumption. It is possible that future changes will, to some extent, come from cutbacks directed by government organizations that are as difficult to understand as the Covid-19 restrictions. The original 1972 analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. An article called, “ Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model ” by Arjuna Nebel and others was published earlier this year in the Journal of Industrial Ecology . The summary exhibit of their findings is shown here as Figure 8. On Figure 8, Recalibration23 is the name given to the new model output. The BAU dotted line shows the indications from the base (business as usual) 1972 model. I found the coloring a little confusing, so I added the labels “Industrial Output” and “Population” to better mark what I consider the two most important model outputs. Food Production per capita is the green line, which is also important. The calculations are all made in terms of the weight of physical quantities of materials used, for the world as a whole. The financial system is not modeled. We do not know how accurate a forecast such as this is. I know that Dennis Meadows, who was the leader of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, has said that once peak was reached, we could not expect the model to necessarily hold. Even with this caveat, I find this forecast disturbing. Industrial output per capita (which would include things like automobiles, farm machinery, and computers) is shown as already steeply declining by 2025 in the updated model. This trend is much clearer than in the 1972 model. By 2050, industrial output per capita is a small fraction of the amount it was at peak. Food output per capita is shown to start dropping about 2025. Based on my understanding of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, this change might reflect a shift away from meat-eating, rather than simply fewer total calories per person. World population follows a curve similar to that of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis with a peak in world population at perhaps about 2030. In the updated model, pollution has been modeled as CO2 levels. This is different from the mix of pollutants used in the original model. The peak comes around 2090. Figure 8 indicates that world industrial production is expected to be the first type of output to drop. This makes sense if energy supply is quite limited or is high-priced. Without adequate inexpensive energy supply, a country is likely to cut back on manufacturing its own goods. Instead, it tries to buy from countries with less expensive sources of energy supply. For example, US industrial production per capita has been falling since 1973. The year 1973 was the year when oil prices first spiked. US business leaders realized that changes were needed: A larger share of manufactured goods needed to be imported from countries with lower-cost fuel supply. Oil needed to be used sparingly because of its high cost. Coal, used heavily in Asia, was typically much cheaper. China took the lead in industrial production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but now it is running into obstacles. One issue is that China’s contribution to the world’s supply of goods is taking away high-paying jobs from other countries. Other countries are left with more low-paying service jobs. A second issue is that the US has become dependent upon China for critical materials, such as those used in military armaments. A third issue is that a great deal of China’s growth was financed by debt. As long as China’s exports were growing very rapidly, this was not a problem. But as growth has slowed, China’s debt has become difficult to repay with interest . The level of conflict between China and other countries has grown, in part because it has become clear that it is not possible for industry to grow rapidly both in China and elsewhere, indirectly because of fossil fuel and uranium limits. The US applies sanctions against some Chinese companies and China retaliates by hoarding scarce resources. These include minerals such as antimony, tungsten, gallium, germanium , graphite, and magnesium. The world is increasingly operating in a “not enough to go around” mode for scarce resources. At the same time, countries need to somewhat get along. So we get strange narratives in the press giving rationalizations for actions by both sides, without mentioning the shortage issue. Figure 8 shows that once industrialization drops, food production also begins to fall, but not as quickly. This makes sense because everyone recognizes that food is essential. The falling calories likely reflect people increasingly moving from meat to vegetable products. Somehow, world population becomes poorer, but the level of population does not drop nearly as rapidly as the drop in industrialization. These are a few ways simplification might take place: [a] High level government organizations might start disappearing . For example, the European Union might not get enough funding and would stop. Or something similar could happen to the International Monetary Fund or the World Trade Organization. [b] Programs that we expect to be funded by the US Federal Government might be handed over completely to the states , to be funded or not, as the finances of individual states permit. Examples might include Medicare, Medicaid, and even Social Security. [c] There could be major banking problems , perhaps simultaneously in many countries around the world. The debt bubble holding up stock markets could pop. Governments would try to compensate, but they might not be able to do enough. Or governments could inadvertently create hyperinflation if there is virtually nothing to buy with the newly printed money created to offset widespread bank failures. [d] There could be a great deal more sharing of homes and of apartments. The current arrangement of many single people living alone, either in an apartment or a stand-alone house could be replaced by many more roommate situations. Multi-generational families living together may become more common. [e] Healthcare may become much simpler and local. Instead of seeing an array of specialists at a distance, people may walk to a local health provider. Medications from around the world are likely to drop greatly in quantity. Government programs to care for the seriously disabled elderly seem likely to be scaled back. [f] Universities may be slimmed down greatly . There is no point in educating a huge number of individuals who cannot get jobs requiring a university degree. [g] The huge amount of effort that goes into taking care of lawns in the US may disappear . Instead, people will put more effort into growing crops locally. Some people may choose to raise chickens, as well. [h] International travel for pleasure will likely disappear, except perhaps for the very rich. Even business trips will become very uncommon. The amount of goods and services transported internationally seems likely to shrink. [i] Many types of optional activities that now take place by car may be replaced by more local versions, which will be reached by walking, or perhaps by bicycle. For example, visits to restaurants may largely disappear, but eating with nearby friends or relatives in homes may increase. Visits to churches may drop greatly, as they did during Covid-19 restrictions, but they may be replaced by groups meeting in homes. Gyms for recreation may disappear, but people may obtain more exercise from their gardens and their need to walk to appointments. [j] Very strange political leaders may take office. One person rule takes much less energy than transporting many representatives to a central location. Some of these leaders may take over as dictators. By Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

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