
Sunday Snapshot: Trump doesn't need a pardon
The Pittsburgh Steelers are reeling off of a win in Cincinnati as they look to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. With their 44-38 win over the Bengals , quarterback Russell Wilson and the Steelers again secured a victory on the road where they allowed over 27 points – something rarely seen in modern Steelers football. Earlier this season, Russell Wilson orchestrated a game-winning drive against the Washington Commanders that was capped off by a moon ball to Mike Williams for a touchdown. They would win 28-27. In games such as this – where the defense allows 27+ points on the road – Mike Tomlin-led Steelers teams were 2-35 prior to the Washington game. Wilson has now led the Steelers to that win total in such circumstances in just six starts. After Sunday, Tomlin’s Steelers moved to 4-35 in games under these circumstances. Wilson is 2-0 in those starts. The future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was only 3-28 in these games. It’s impressive to see Wilson lead the Steelers to what is a rare mark for the black and gold. Tomlin and company have had a difficult time gaining stability in the position since Roethlisberger’s retirement. Though Wilson just turned 36 on Friday, he recently revealed he wants to play another five to seven seasons. He might get that opportunity in Pittsburgh. While Wilson doesn’t necessarily move like he used to, he can still extend plays. Most importantly, his veteran experience and strong arm talent have elevated his receivers’ play. George Pickens continues to grow as a number-one receiver, Calvin Austin III has become an emerging weapon, and Pat Freiermuth has flourished as a security blanket. With a win on Sunday, the Steelers can inch their way closer to a division title – something they have not accomplished since 2020. After the Baltimore Ravens loss against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Steelers would need two wins the rest of the way with one of those being in Baltimore in two weeks. Wilson and the Steelers have shown they can play ball by any means necessary to win. This article first appeared on Steelers Now and was syndicated with permission.
Last Uncalled House Race Lingers in CaliforniaIt's been quite a phenomenal two years for investors. Since bottoming out in October 2022, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI 0.42% ) , broad-based S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.56% ) , and innovation-driven Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC 0.83% ) have all soared to multiple record-closing highs. The stock market's epic rally is being fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) , excitement following President-elect Donald Trump's victory , and corporate earnings growth widely surpassing consensus expectations. While seemingly nothing looks to be standing in the way of these three catalysts, history isn't as forgiving. The S&P 500 has reached uncharted territory Over the last year, there has been no shortage of economic data points or forecasting tools that have warned of potential trouble for the U.S. economy and/or Wall Street. Examples include the first notable decline in U.S. money supply since the Great Depression, the longest yield-curve inversion on record, and a record high for the "Buffett Indicator." However, there's a new concern to add to the list: the benchmark S&P 500's price-to-book (P/B) ratio . For individual companies, their book value effectively shows what shareholders would receive if a company were, hypothetically, liquidated (i.e., its assets minus liabilities). While book value isn't quite the imperative fundamental metric it once was, it still serves an important function in helping value investors identify undervalued stocks. However, book value isn't just a metric used for individual businesses. We can examine the collective book value of the companies that comprise major indexes to determine if the components, as a whole, are collectively cheap or pricey. Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500's P/B value has averaged 2.83, which isn't particularly low, nor is it egregiously high. With the internet democratizing access to information in the mid-1990s and interest rates tumbling following the financial crisis, investors have been encouraged to take on more risk and invest in growth stocks, which would be expected to lead higher P/B ratios. But there's an undeniable threshold the S&P 500 has crossed that's eventually (key word!) led to trouble every single time. S&P 500 Price to Book Ratio data by YCharts . Readings are tabulated quarterly, with the latest reading (4.793) for the chart above from Sept. 30, 2024. Prior to 2024, there had only been two instances in a quarter of a century when the S&P 500's P/B ratio surpassed 4 during a bull market rally: The end of the fourth quarter of 2021 when the P/B ratio ended at 4.73. The end of the first quarter of 2000 when it hit what had been its record high of 5.06. As of the closing bell on Nov. 26, 2024, the S&P 500's P/B ratio stood at an all-time high of 5.30. Following 2021's Q4, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all spiraled into a bear market, with the S&P 500 losing around a quarter of its value. Meanwhile, the broad-based index shed 49% of its value when the dot-com bubble burst, with the Nasdaq Composite losing 78% on a peak-to-trough basis. History is quite clear that once the S&P 500's P/B ratio becomes extended, it's simply a matter of time before a sizable correction occurs. This isn't the only valuation metric sounding alarm bells However, the S&P 500 breaching a never-before-seen price-to-book threshold isn't the only valuation metric that's raising eyebrows on Wall Street . Most investors are probably familiar with the traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as a way to make quick evaluations of whether or not a stock is inexpensive or pricey. The P/E ratio divides a company's (or index's) share price into its trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS) to make this assessment. The potential problem with the traditional P/E ratio is that shock events render it useless. For instance, early-stage lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged corporate earnings for a short period and skewed the trailing-12-month EPS for most public companies. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts . What's, arguably, a far more complete measure of value is the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio, which is also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio ( CAPE ratio ). The Shiller P/E is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS from the prior 10 years, which means it's able to smooth out the lumpiness associated with short-term shock events. When back-tested to 1871, the Shiller P/E has averaged a rather modest reading of 17.17. But you'll note that this ratio has spent much of the last 30 years above this 153-year average, which is, once again, a reflection of the democratization of information, ease of access to online trading/investing, and lower prevailing interest rates. But when the closing bell tolled on Nov. 26, the Shiller P/E stood at 38.41, which is its highest reading during the current bull market rally as well as the third-highest reading during a continuous bull market over the last 153 years . The only two times the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio has been higher are (drum roll) prior to the dot-com bubble bursting when it hit an all-time high of 44.19, and immediately before the 2022 bear market when it briefly surpassed 40. Since January 1871, there have been only a half-dozen instances, including the present, when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E topped 30. Following all five previous occurrences, the benchmark index and/or Dow Jones Industrial Average shed between 20% and 89% of their value. Value may be in the eye of the beholder, but history couldn't be any clearer that trouble is brewing for the stock market . Widening the lens tells a different tale While the near-term outlook for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite appears dicey, at best, based on a couple of historically flawless valuation metrics, it's a completely different story if investors lean on history and widen their lens . A perfect example of time working in investors' favor can be seen in an analysis conducted by Crestmont Research that's updated on an annual basis. The researchers at Crestmont examined the rolling 20-year total returns, including dividends paid, of the S&P 500 dating back to 1900. Even though the S&P didn't exist until 1923, researchers were able to track the performance of its components in other indexes dating back to the start of the 20th century. Being able to back-test to 1900 resulted in 105 rolling 20-year periods, with end dates ranging from 1919 through 2023. ^SPX data by YCharts . What Crestmont's analysis showed is that all 105 rolling 20-year timelines produced a positive total return for investors . In other words, if an investor had, hypothetically, purchased an index fund that mirrored the performance of the S&P 500 at any point since 1900 and held that position for 20 years, their initial investment would have grown. Furthermore, Crestmont's data set makes clear that long-term investors weren't scraping by with menial gains. The annualized average total return for 50 of these 105 rolling 20-year periods topped 9% , which on a compound annual basis would double an investor's money every eight years. Even with the stock market breaching never-before-seen valuation thresholds, there's an extremely high probability that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite will be markedly higher 20 years from now.
After Juan Soto's megadeal, could MLB see a $1 billion contract? Probably not soonLuigi Mangione , the suspect charged with murder in the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thomson allegedly had a homemade gun, known as a ghost gun, when police arrested him on Monday. The handgun that police say may have been made with a 3D printer, is similar to the gun that shot and killed Thomson. Download the CTV News App for breaking news alerts and video on all the top stories Ghost guns are untraceable. They can be assembled at home or 3D-printed, and don’t have a serial number that can be tracked. They don’t require a license or background check to be obtained. “That’s the beauty of it for the criminal and that’s the stumbling block for law enforcement,” said Mark Mendelson, a former homicide detective in Toronto. There are two common forms to obtaining a ghost gun, Mendelson said. People can legally purchase individual gun parts online -- in some cases there are do-it-yourself kits, which can be assembled at home. Sometimes, additional parts are 3D-printed to fill in the missing pieces. Other times, the entire gun can be 3D-printed using software obtained on the dark web, according to Mendelson. “If you know where you're going, you'll find it. There will always be somebody ready to sell it to you,” he said. Ghost guns in Canada It is illegal to manufacture firearms in Canada unless you have a business license to build them. Ottawa has taken steps to specifically crack down on ghost guns. Officials work with Canada Border Services Agency to help intercept imported parts for homemade guns. Recently, the government made it illegal to possess or distribute 3D printing software used to manufacture guns. But it’s not illegal to own a 3D printer. 3D printers are sold for as cheap as $300 online, but those in the printing business say criminals likely aren’t using the cheapest printer they can find. “They're not just buying a simple printer off of Amazon and going out and printing a gun. They're buying a very high-end printer that's going to be able to handle an explosion,” said Randy Janes, owner of Wave of the Future 3D in Saskatoon. “It's pretty crucial that it doesn't blow up on you when you're making these parts.” But technology is changing, and 3D printing is getting easier for the average person to dabble in, Mendelson said. And criminals are always looking for workarounds. Follow the CTV News channel on WhatsApp “As long as you have the sort of technological smarts to be able to put these things together with the software, with the consumables that go into these 3D printers, we will probably see more of this, unfortunately, as we move down the road,” Mendelson said. In June 2023, police seized 440 ghost guns and more than 50 3D printers in a cross-agency investigation that involved more than 20 police forces. Officers carried out 64 raids in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan that resulted in 45 arrests. Ghost guns were unheard of ten years ago, Mendelson said. But he expects police will see more of them on the streets as Ottawa introduces new gun bans that make it harder for criminals to access guns. “Criminals do their best to stay out of jail and they'll use technology to their advantage if, in fact, it will help them to access guns. Guns are not going to go away,” Mendelson said.
Jenkins throws for 3 TDs to carry FIU to 35-24 win over Middle TennesseeNo one was injured in the break-in, but the home was ransacked, according to a report provided by the Hamilton County Sheriff's Office. Deputies weren't immediately able to determine what items were stolen. A person who is employed by Burrow arrived at the Anderson Township home Monday night to find a shattered bedroom window and the home in disarray. The person called their mother, and then 911 was contacted, according to the report. Deputies reached out to neighbors in an attempt to piece together surveillance footage. “Our investigators are exploring every avenue,” public information officer Kyla Woods said. The homes of Chiefs stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were broken into in October. In the NBA , Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis had his home broken into Nov. 2 and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley Jr.'s home was burglarized on Sept. 15 while he was at a Minnesota Vikings game. Portis had offered a $40,000 reward for information. Both the NFL and NBA issued security alerts to players after those break-ins, urging them to take additional precautions to secure their homes. In league memos previously obtained by The Associated Press, the NFL said homes of professional athletes across multiple sports have become “increasingly targeted for burglaries by organized and skilled groups.” And the NBA revealed that the FBI has connected some burglaries to “transnational South American Theft Groups” that are “reportedly well-organized, sophisticated rings that incorporate advanced techniques and technologies, including pre-surveillance, drones, and signal jamming devices.” Some of the burglary groups have conducted extensive surveillance on targets, including attempted home deliveries and posing as grounds maintenance or joggers in the neighborhood, according to officials. AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl