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Ajay Bagga , Market Expert, says he would look at public sector banks along with railways, and defence stocks. It is a 60-day trade, going into the Budget, we will see the normal frothiness coming into all these sectors. They normally do well going into the Budget and then we see a tapering off post the Budget. So, it might not be a bad idea for short-term investments to look at these three segments. Let us talk about the movie exhibition space. While it is a monopoly out there, does it seem like it is not going to get back to its heyday before we all discovered OTT? Ajay Bagga: Well from a consumption viewpoint, it is a good sector but it is just too small, as you mentioned a very small rally to track and it is a one pony sector. So, overall the trends are against the sector in terms of OTT taking up most of the space. You need blockbuster movies and all what we are seeing the news around Pushpa 2 will lead to some amount of froth in particular stock, but overall we have got a lot more consumption plays and we do not have too much choice in the sector as such, but the trend globally is towards OTT grabbing more and more of the market share. Over the last couple of days we have seen some fresh initiations UBS did on the entire sector on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Nomura did on Oberoi Realty. What is your take? Is it the time for a fresh relook at the real estate pack or are they adequately priced? Ajay Bagga: What has happened is that over the last three years post the peak of COVID, we have seen real estate do very well. I would say it was priced to perfection, so very difficult to really justify. Of course when new luxury projects come in and everything got sold very fast, then one tended to look at the sector afresh. But one is better off in the industrial infrastructure space, in the construction space, in the implementation part of the infrastructure business, then these real estate majors. They have cleaned up the balance sheets. The good news is with good regulation and smart moves, all these companies which have survived are the real winners and they will be multi-year winners. But valuations become an issue and behind the headlines, people have committed money partially. All those kinds of things are behind the headlines, given that there is a big demand at the upper end of the market and most of these players are in that. We have seen some South-based players showing not-so good numbers and not having that many approvals in place in various states. So, things are not the same for all companies. I think North-based players are much better off. We have seen NCR prices going up and projects running very fast. One has to look at the balance sheets and the kind of projects they have in hand and how soon those will be coming on to the P&L. Those are the issues and one is better off on the industrial infrastructure capex side of the business or even on the cement plays rather than the real estate players at this part of the cycle. 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With the kind of GDP print that we got and the kind of setup that we have at our hand, is there any possibility of a rate action? Also do you think the RBI governor will get an extension? Ajay Bagga: Well, the money markets would like him to continue. He has had a pretty spectacular term and he has been consistently ranked among the top central bankers world over. But there is a tradition that governors change. So, there will be a change happening, though the markets would prefer him to stay. In terms of expectations on the rate cuts, those have moved to February largely. Earlier part of this year, we were expecting that the rates would start getting cut by October, following the Fed cutting by August, September, and that got postponed. Now, the dilemma for the RBI is twofold. One, how to ensure that the rupee depreciation is orderly. They have to keep an eye out for competitive devaluation that the Chinese will be doing, Southeast Asian nations will be doing continuously, that is the Chinese rebuttal to Trump tariffs. We have seen that happen in 2017-18 and already the Chinese have smartly depreciated their currency. So, the rupee has to be competitive in export terms, but it imports inflation if it is disorderly. The RBI is in a bit of a cul-de-sac where on one side it has to protect the value of the rupee, on the other side price stability, and third is the growth imperative. The growth has slowed down and one needs counter-cyclical measures both on the fiscal and monetary side. The money market is telling you that with the kind of fall that you have seen in the yields right from the 40-year paper down to the 5-year paper and the OIS is showing that a rate cut is anticipated by February and April. So, I think if on Friday we do not get a cut, you will get a 50 basis point in February probably. Second would be on the liquidity. The Street seems to be quite convinced about the CRR cut. Let us wait and watch. That is again a very blunt instrument. RBI does not like to leave that on the table mostly and rather they prefer OMOs and variable auctions to ensure they inject liquidity, but it will be a good signalling. If they give a CRR cut, it will help the balance sheets of banks as well. More liquidity and better margins, both will be welcome for the banks. Markets have run up in anticipation. So, we will see on Friday, but it is a tough position to be the RBI governor this meeting between the growth stalling and inflation still being very disruptive and the third being the protection of orderly rupee depreciation. You Might Also Like: Second half to be better than H1; bullish on rural, not urban India; premiumisation, not mass market: Nilesh Shah The entire BPC category and the overall urban retail and consumption category is something that is coming back to the radar. We were just speaking with the management of DLF Retail as well as to how the Black Friday sales have picked up quite massively. What do you make of this theme? Ajay Bagga: Overall, aggregate demand has come down in the economy. We have seen that with the GDP numbers and stocks have not performed so well. The expectation now is some counter cyclical measures. Will the government wait for the budget to come in and on the other side, will they release big chunks of payouts for projects as well as welfare schemes, that is what needs to be watched out. The Indian consumer, the Indian taxpayer has done their bit. GST collection is up. Corporate tax has not been that good for October, but we will have to wait and watch the December 15th number, which will give a very good idea of the tax collections. What we have to really wait for is government dispersals to pick up and that will then see all the consumption themes picking up strongly. The sowing has been good and we are expecting rural demand to also start picking up, but a lot depends on the government spending coming in. We lost about four months in the beginning of the year. There is that catch up happening. We will not meet the infrastructure capex number for the year that was budgeted. So, the government will have a good Rs 50,000-70,000 crore extra in hand, which if they can dole out between now and February, can be a good counter cyclical boost into the economy. We have to wait and watch for that. There are some segments which are looking very good and they have also caught the attention of institutional investors like quick service commerce and platform companies, which you were discussing earlier, I think those are looking good and they should do well. But right now, I would say public sector, railways, defence. Railways, defence. I have been talking against them from May onwards on valuations, but this is the pre-budget time. There is a 60-day window to get into the public sector, railways, and defence. They normally do well going into the Budget and then we see a tapering off post the Budget. So, it might not be a bad idea for short-term investments to look at these three, public sector, railways, and defence. A lot of overlap in these three. A lot of them are also public sector companies, but in the public sector, banks got hit too much and with the RBI action upcoming, we will see benefits on treasury coming to them. The way the yields have corrected over the last one week has given them some boost on the treasury income as well. I would look at public sector banks along with railways, and defence stocks. It is a 60-day trade, going into the Budget you will see the normal frothiness coming in into all these sectors. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
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NoneRodgers says he's undecided about playing next season, but Jets are his 'first option' if he returns Aaron Rodgers is still contemplating whether he wants to play football next season. And if he does return, he said during his weekly appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday that he prefers it to be with the New York Jets. The star quarterback, who turns 41 next Monday, denied a recent report that he wants to keep playing next year but not with the Jets. He said he needs to see how he feels physically and where the Jets stand with a new general manager and coach. He added that the Jets will also have to want him playing for them. That will all factor into his decision. Court rejects request to sideline San Jose State volleyball player on grounds she’s transgender A federal appeals court has upheld a ruling that allows a San Jose State women’s volleyball team member to play in the Mountain West Conference tournament after complaints said she should be ineligible on grounds that she’s transgender. The 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Tuesday that a U.S. Magistrate in Denver was correct in allowing her to play. The magistrate and the appeals court said the players and others who sued should have filed their complaint earlier, rather than waiting until less than two weeks before the tournament was to begin to seek an emergency injunction. Lewandowski joins Ronaldo and Messi in Champions League 100-goal club. Haaland nets 2 but City draws ROME (AP) — Robert Lewandowski joined Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi as the only players in Champions League history with 100 or more goals. But Erling Haaland is on a faster pace than anyone after boosting his total to 46 goals at age 24. Lewandowski’s early penalty kick started Barcelona off to a 3-0 win over previously unbeaten Brest to move into second place in the new single-league format. Ronaldo leads the all-time scoring list with 140 goals and Messi is next with 129. Haaland scored a brace as City was held 3-3 by Feyenoord. Inter Milan beat Leipzig 1-0 to move atop the standings. Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0. Atalanta, Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen also won. Traffic citations against Dolphins' Tyreek Hill dismissed after officers no-show at hearing MIAMI (AP) — Traffic citations issued to Miami Dolphins star wide receiver Tyreek Hill after a September altercation with police have been dismissed after the charging officers didn’t attend a court hearing. Hill’s tickets for careless driving and failing to wear a seat belt were dismissed after the Miami-Dade Police officers failed to show up for a Monday hearing. The tickets were issued after Hill was stopped outside Hard Rock Stadium for allegedly speeding before the Dolphins' season opener on Sept. 8. The stop escalated and an officer pulled Hill from the car, forced him to the ground and handcuffed him. North Carolina football coach Mack Brown won't return for 2025 season North Carolina coach Mack Brown won’t return for the 2025 season. The school announced the move Tuesday with a statement from athletic director Bubba Cunningham. The school said Cunningham informed the 73-year-old College Football Hall of Fame member that there would be a coaching change. Brown is set to coach the regular-season finale on Saturday against rival N.C. State, though a decision hasn’t been made about whether Brown will coach a bowl game. Brown is in his second stint with the program and won a national championship at Texas. Lionel Messi has his new coach: Javier Mascherano's hiring by Inter Miami is now complete FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Lionel Messi and Javier Mascherano are together again, this time with Inter Miami. The former Barcelona and Argentina teammates have reunited, with Inter Miami announcing Tuesday that Mascherano’s hiring as the club’s new coach is complete. The sides struck a deal late last week for Mascherano to replace Gerardo “Tata” Martino, who stepped aside for personal reasons. Mascherano most recently was Argentina’s under-20 team coach. Mascherano says he was “drawn to the organization’s undeniable ambition." Will Utah State or Boise State forfeit vs. San Jose State in the Mountain West semifinals? 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The No. 3 Longhorns and No. 20 Aggies finally meet again Saturday night in College Station with a berth in the SEC championship game on the line. Oklahoma's throwback offensive approach against Alabama gets LSU's attention NORMAN, Okla. (AP) — Oklahoma appears to have borrowed from the past to cure its recent offensive ills. The Sooners, best known this century for a passing prowess that has produced four Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, took it back to the 20th century against Alabama. They ran 50 times for 257 yards while only throwing 12 times in a 24-3 win over the Crimson Tide. Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold ran for 131 yards against Alabama. LSU coach Brian Kelly has taken notice ahead of their upcoming game. The Tigers rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams against the run.