China's policymakers are set to take a more proactive approach to macroeconomic policies in the year ahead, aiming to tackle both short-term challenges arising from lackluster demand and structural issues, said economists. Citing the recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference, they said the country is fine-tuning its macroeconomic strategy, marking a significant shift toward a consumption-driven economy as it prepares for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in 2025. "The deficit ratio for 2025 is likely to be the highest on record," said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, anticipating that the government would set the projected deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2025 at 3.5-4 percent or higher in March, up from 3 percent for this year. The Chinese government started to release the annual projected deficit ratio in 2010, with the highest reading in 2020 at 3.6 percent as COVID-19 hit, according to market tracker Wind Info. Xiong said next year's quota of special local government bonds is expected to increase to more than 4.5 trillion yuan ($616.5 billion) from a record high of 3.9 trillion yuan this year, in addition to special treasury bonds of over 2 to 3 trillion yuan in 2025, up from 1 trillion yuan for 2024. Xiong's remarks came as the Central Economic Work Conference held in December pledged to implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, boost domestic demand, drive the integration of sci-tech innovation and industrial innovation, and stabilize the real estate sector and stock markets. The nation will maintain basic equilibrium in the balance of payments and better synchronize the income growth of households and economic expansion, according to the meeting. "While promoting industrial sectors was the top task last year, expanding domestic demand is in the top spot this year," said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura. Lu said that the conference called for more specific measures to support consumption, including increasing basic pension payments, raising fiscal subsidies for basic medical insurance and developing policies to boost fertility. "Overall, the conference adds support to our relatively optimistic view on fiscal policies in 2025 and our view that Beijing may stick to the 'around 5 percent' GDP growth target in 2025," he said. According to the conference, policymakers pledged to roll out more initiatives to boost consumption, including greater strides in equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs. Looking forward, Lu said policymakers might consider an increase in spending on social security for lower-income households and encouraging childbirth. "We especially expect policymakers to significantly increase payments to those rural pensioners (55 percent of total pensioners) whose average monthly pension income is only 225 yuan," he said. "They may also increase financial support for families with a second or third child. And they may also waive part of the annual 400 yuan fee on basic medical insurance for low-income individuals." As the conference reiterated a "more proactive fiscal policy", Lu said his team forecasts a total of 3.6 trillion yuan in incremental borrowing for 2025 versus 2024, or around 2.6 percent of GDP. "We expect the official deficit ratio to be raised from 3 percent this year to 4 percent next year," he said. "We expect net financing from central government special bonds to be raised to 1.5 trillion yuan from 1 trillion yuan in 2024." Regarding local government special bonds, Lu said his teams expect a small increase to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024. Echoing the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held earlier this month, the Central Economic Work Conference statement vowed to conduct "moderately accommodative" monetary policy, switching away from a "prudent" monetary policy for the past 14 years. "The use of words 'moderately accommodative' for monetary policy is the first time since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in July 2010, when China was still dealing with the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Lu added. "The readout emphasizes the dual roles of aggregate and structural monetary policy instruments, leaving room for potential incremental policies from these People's Bank of China structural facilities." The Central Economic Work Conference also promises to launch policy rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in a timely manner or whenever it is deemed appropriate, maintaining sufficient liquidity, leading the growth rate of aggregate financing and monetary supply to be mostly aligned with the expected targets of economic growth and price inflation. "The focus on the policy rate and RRR cuts is consistent with our view, as we forecast two rounds of policy rate cuts in the first quarter and second quarter of 2025, respectively, and one 50-basis-point RRR cut before end-2024 and two 50-basis-points RRR cuts in 2025," Lu said. With the help of a raft of government measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing growth in the second half of this year, China's economy showed sustained recovery with the latest economic indicators pointing to green shoots of a steady rebound heading into 2025. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's value-added industrial output grew 5.4 percent year-on-year in November, up from a 5.3 percent rise in the previous month. "This improvement reflects the impact of a series of incremental policy measures that have bolstered market confidence and supported demand recovery," said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. Looking ahead, Wang believes that the demand for consumption and investment will continue to pick up amid a series of stimulus measures, driving strong growth in industrial production. "Industrial production growth will remain robust in December, likely in the range of 5 percent to 6 percent." NBS data showed that the growth of retail sales slowed to 3 percent year-on-year in November from 4.8 percent in October, while fixed-asset investment saw 3.3 percent year-on-year growth during the January-November period, down from 3.4 percent in the first 10 months. Wang said the growth rate of retail sales slowed in November, as this year's "Double 11" shopping festival presale started earlier, shifting some consumer demand from November to October. With consumption-boosting policies taking effect gradually and the gradual improvement in consumer sentiment, Wang estimated retail sales to grow around 4.5 percent year-on-year in December. "We anticipate that in 2025, policy measures to stimulate consumption will be further ramped up," he said. Among these measures, Wang said the country may fund a 600 billion yuan tradein deal for consumer goods to spark household demand, and the range of subsidized products is likely to expand to include consumer electronics, home furnishings, and other durable goods. Meanwhile, he believes fiscal support for childbirth might be piloted next year, such as one-time or monthly subsidies for families with newborns, with the support scale potentially reaching 100 billion yuan. "There may also be a nationwide issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies in 2025, which would expand the scope of consumption stimulation from durable goods to include general merchandise and service consumption," he said. "This reflects an important shift in the current macroeconomic policy direction, where the previous countercyclical investment policies with a key emphasis on investment are now shifting toward a more balanced approach, prioritizing both consumption and investment, with an increased focus on consumption."
Canadian Businessman Kevin O’Leary Proposes ‘Erasing The Border’ Between US, Canada To Combat ChinaTeen sensation Sam Konstas says he is up for the challenge of playing Test cricket this summer, believing he is in the right headspace to debut for Australia. Konstas catapulted back into the public spotlight on Sunday when he smashed a 90-ball century against a Test-level Indian attack for the Prime Minister's XI in Canberra. The runs showed the 19-year-old is clearly a step above, with only one other batsman in the PM's XI top or middle order passing five runs. He is also a keen meditator before games, and moves quickly to the wicket in a statement of intent at the start of his innings. "I don't get too fazed about (the hype)," Konstas said. "It's about being in the present and being the best version of myself, and then hopefully let the result take care of itself." Likewise, Konstas said he had not been too down about missing out on Test selection for the start of the summer. "I feel like it's all part of the journey," he said. "Unfortunately I didn't get the runs that I would have liked. "But I've been reflecting on how I could have done better and challenging how they got me out and tactics they used."College Football Reporter Laura Rutledge Was A Fan Favorite On Saturday
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Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday signed into law a bill of Russian children by citizens of countries where gender transitioning is legal. The Kremlin leader also approved legislation that outlaws the spread of material that . The bills, which were previously approved by , follow a series of laws that have and bolstered longstanding conventional values. Russian lower house Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who was among the new bill’s authors, said in a Telegram post in July that “it is extremely important to eliminate possible dangers in the form of gender reassignment that adopted children may face in these countries.” The adoption ban would apply to at least 15 countries, most of them in Europe, and Australia, Argentina and Canada. Adoption of Russian children by U.S. citizens was banned in 2012. Other bills approved Saturday ban what they described as propaganda for remaining child-free and impose fines of up to 5 million rubles (about $50,000). Its proponents contended that public arguments against having children are part of purported Western efforts to weaken Russia by encouraging population decline. Putin and other top officials in recent years have increasingly called for observing so-called traditional values as a counter to Western liberalism. As Russia’s population declines, Putin has made statements advocating large families and last year urged women to have as many as eight children. Russia last year banned gender-transition medical procedures and its Supreme Court . In 2022, Putin signed a law to people of all ages, expanding a ban issued in 2013 on disseminating the material to minors. Related Articles Since he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin leader has repeatedly characterized the West as “satanic” and accused it of trying to undermine Russia by exporting liberal ideologies. Independent journalists, critics, activists and opposition figures in Russia have come under increasing pressure from the government in recent years, intensifying significantly amid the conflict in Ukraine. Hundreds of nongovernmental groups and individuals have been — a label that implies additional government scrutiny and carries strong pejorative connotations.
No. 11 Tennessee crushes UTEP to enhance CFP chancesJoe Burrow threw three touchdown passes to Tee Higgins, including a game-winning scoring strike with 1:07 left in overtime, to give the host Cincinnati Bengals an electrifying 30-24 win over the Denver Broncos on Saturday. Cade York could have given Cincinnati (8-8) the win with 2:43 to go in the extra session, but his 33-yard field-goal attempt hit the left upright. The Bengals' defense buckled down, though, forcing Denver to go three-and-out to get Burrow, Higgins and the rest of the offense back out on the field. Cincinnati proceeded to go 63 yards in five plays, with Higgins' 3-yard TD catch giving the Bengals their fourth straight victory. Higgins finished with 11 catches for 131 yards. Marvin Mims Jr. forced overtime by hauling in a 25-yard score on fourth-and-1 to draw the Broncos (9-7) even at 24 with eight seconds left in regulation. Burrow had put Cincinnati in front by plunging into the end zone from 1 yard out just 1:21 earlier. Burrow completed 39 of 49 passes for 412 yards and the three touchdowns while Ja'Marr Chase had nine catches for 102 yards and set a single-season franchise record for receptions. He now has 117. Tight end Mike Gesicki played a key role in the Cincinnati passing game, grabbing a season-high 10 catches for 86 yards. The Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive, but they must beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18 while also getting losses from the Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. Mims was rookie quarterback Bo Nix's favorite target, recording 103 yards and a pair of scores on eight receptions. Nix went 24-for-31 passing for 219 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Denver is still in search of a wild-card spot and can lock one down with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Jan. 5. Wil Lutz booted a 30-yard field goal to open the scoring and give the Broncos a 3-0 lead. The first Burrow-to-Higgins TD -- a 2-yard connection -- put the hosts up 7-3 with 1:49 to go in the first half, and that advantage held until the break. A 22-yard field goal from York made it 10-3 with 9:07 remaining in the third quarter. Nix found Courtland Sutton for a 6-yard touchdown to tie things at 10. The teams then traded fourth-quarter TDs, with Higgins snatching a 12-yard scoring pass and Mims ending up on the receiving end of a 51-yard strike. --Field Level Media
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