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There is a seemingly endless stream of news headlines about plummeting birth rates. Many have alarmist narratives about the perils of “baby busts” and “population decline”. This reflects a deep-seated anxiety about what declining birth rates mean for the future of society. In 2023, Australia’s birth rate declined to the lowest level ever recorded of 1.5 births per woman. But declining birth rates have long been an issue of public concern. Even as early as 1903, the New South Wales government established a Royal Commission on the decline of the birth rate. But what real issue does a low birth rate pose, and for whom? Birth rates are not just numbers; they are intertwined with the fabric of societies. Alarm about low fertility is grounded not just in economic concerns, but political and ideological worries, too. Declining birth rates affect the economy Initially, a declining birth rate will mean a relatively larger proportion of people of working age and fewer children. This pattern provides countries with an opportunity to grow their economy. More people of working age means more economic productivity and activity, and a larger tax base. Over time, however, sustained declines in the birth rate leads to fewer people moving into the productive (and reproductive) years. The working age demographic bulge moves into older ages. This is known as population ageing. In the absence of positive net migration , this will eventually lead to depopulation if fertility is low enough. There is widespread recognition declining birth rates can contribute to economic decline , as a result of a shrinking workforce. This can lead to labour shortages, reduced economic output, and a smaller tax base to support welfare systems. But it doesn’t automatically spell disaster However, some experts challenge the idea population decline means economic disaster. Population decline, they argue, can actually be beneficial for per capita consumption and living standards. Other potential benefits include: less resources being consumed less pollution more investment in the education and well-being of a smaller number of children. Beyond the economic sphere, declining birth rates often become entangled with broader social and political anxieties. Non-economic fears Low birth rates often accompany fears of national decline, cultural homogenisation, and even “ civilizational doom ”. These fears are often exploited by political actors seeking to promote nationalist agendas and restrict immigration . The focus on increasing birth rates as a solution to these perceived threats can also lead to policymakers undermining human rights, particularly women’s reproductive rights. Policies that pressure women to have children are often justified in the name of national security and demographic stability . These policies may promote traditional gender roles, and restrict access to reproductive healthcare. Beyond the macroeconomic and geopolitical narratives, however, people’s decisions about childbearing are deeply personal. Many people want more kids than they have Research repeatedly shows there is a gap between people’s fertility intentions and the number of children they end up having. Many people who want kids face barriers such as: economic insecurity gender inequality limited access to formal and informal childcare, and high housing and education costs. This underscores the need to address the systemic issues that make it difficult for people to have the number of children they want. The persistent focus on declining birth rates is the product of a complex and often emotionally charged intersection between the public and private spheres. The economic and social challenges associated with low fertility are real and deserve careful consideration. But demographic policies need not specifically address only childbearing. Demographic resilience Many countries are framing their population futures under a “ demographic resilience ” framework. This framework recognises that there is a need for constructive solutions to the rapidly ageing or declining populations we see today, without a distracting focus on policies to increase the birth rate. Policies that do aim to support childbearing should respect people’s individual autonomy and reproductive choices. A human rights-based approach recognises that the goal is not to dictate reproductive choices. It is to ensure the conditions under which individuals can freely exercise those choices. This could include policies that ensure people can: access affordable childcare and housing achieve work-life balance through flexible work arrangements access robust parental leave policies. Supporting child-free lifestyles is equally important; society should affirm the right not to have children is a valid choice. The challenge for policymakers lies in balancing societal concerns with respect for individual autonomy. The low fertility discourse should move beyond “crisis” to focus on creating supportive environments where people can make informed, empowered decisions about parenthood.NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks tiptoed to more records amid a mixed Tuesday of trading, tacking a touch more onto what’s already been a stellar year so far. The S&P 500 edged up by 2 points, or less than 0.1%, to set an all-time high for the 55th time this year. It’s climbed in 10 of the last 11 days and is on track for one of its best years since the turn of the millennium. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 76 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite added 0.4% to its own record set a day earlier. AT&T rose 4.6% after it boosted its profit forecast for the year. It also announced a $10 billion plan to send cash to its investors by buying back its own stock, while saying it expects to authorize another $10 billion of repurchases in 2027. On the losing end of Wall Street was U.S. Steel, which fell 8%. President-elect Donald Trump reiterated on social media that he would not let Japan’s Nippon Steel take over the iconic Pennsylvania steelmaker. Nippon Steel announced plans last December to buy the Pittsburgh-based steel producer for $14.1 billion in cash, raising concerns about what the transaction could mean for unionized workers, supply chains and U.S. national security. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden also came out against the acquisition. Tesla sank 1.6% after a judge in Delaware reaffirmed a previous ruling that the electric car maker must revoke Elon Musk’s multibillion-dollar pay package. The judge denied a request by attorneys for Musk and Tesla’s corporate directors to vacate her ruling earlier this year requiring the company to rescind the unprecedented pay package. All told, the S&P 500 rose 2.73 points to 6,049.88. The Dow fell 76.47 to 44,705.53, and the Nasdaq composite gained 76.96 to 19,480.91. In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady after a report showed U.S. employers were advertising slightly more job openings at the end of October than a month earlier. Continued strength there would raise optimism that the economy could remain out of a recession that many investors had earlier worried was inevitable. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.23% from 4.20% from late Monday. Yields have seesawed since Election Day amid worries that Trump’s preferences for lower tax rates and bigger tariffs could spur higher inflation along with economic growth. But traders are still confident the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate again at its next meeting in two weeks. They’re betting on a nearly three-in-four chance of that, according to data from CME Group. Lower rates can give the economy more juice, but they can also give inflation more fuel. The key report this week that could guide the Fed’s next move will arrive on Friday. It’s the monthly jobs report , which will show how many workers U.S. employers hired and fired during November. It could be difficult to parse given how much storms and strikes distorted figures in October. Based on trading in the options market, Friday’s jobs report appears to be the biggest potential market mover until the Fed announces its next decision on interest rates Dec. 18, according to strategists at Barclays Capital. In financial markets abroad, the value of South Korea’s currency fell 1.1% against the U.S. dollar following a frenetic night where President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law and then later said he’d lift it after lawmakers voted to reject military rule. Stocks of Korean companies that trade in the United States also fell, including a 1.6% drop for SK Telecom. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9% to help lead global markets. Some analysts think Japanese stocks could end up benefiting from Trump’s threats to raise tariffs , including for goods coming from China . Trade relations between the U.S. and China took another step backward after China said it is banning exports to the U.S. of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications. The counterpunch came swiftly after the U.S. Commerce Department expanded the list of Chinese technology companies subject to export controls to include many that make equipment used to make computer chips, chipmaking tools and software. The 140 companies newly included in the so-called “entity list” are nearly all based in China. In China, stock indexes rose 1% in Hong Kong and 0.4% in Shanghai amid unconfirmed reports that Chinese leaders would meet next week to discuss planning for the coming year. Investors are hoping it may bring fresh stimulus to help spur growth in the world’s second-largest economy. In France, the CAC 40 rose 0.3% amid continued worries about politics in Paris , where the government is battling over the budget. AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.
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The absurdity of it all: A Nigerian saga...Lucy Bronze misses England's Switzerland friendly after team sheet errorBrokers have been busy running the rule over a number of ASX dividend stocks in recent times. Three that have come out with buy ratings are listed below. Here's what brokers are saying about them and why they could be top options for income investors right now: The first ASX dividend stock that could be in the buy zone is Centuria Industrial. That's the view of analysts at UBS, which think that Australia's largest domestic pure play industrial property investment company could be a top option. Particularly given its attractive valuation and positive long term fundamentals. As for income, the broker is forecasting Centuria Industrial to pay dividends per share of 16 cents in FY 2025 and then 17 cents in FY 2026. Based on the current Centuria Industrial share price of $2.97, this represents of 5.4% and 5.7%, respectively. UBS has a buy rating and $3.80 price target on its shares. ( ) Another ASX dividend stock that brokers are positive on is National Storage. It is the largest self-storage provider in Australia and New Zealand, with over 250 locations providing tailored storage solutions to in excess of 97,000 residential and commercial customers. Citi has been pleased with the company's performance in recent times and believes it is well-positioned to grow its dividend. It is forecasting dividends per share of 11.3 cents in FY 2025 and then 11.9 cents in FY 2026. Based on its current share price of $2.48, equates to dividend yields of 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively, for income investors. Citi currently has a buy rating and $2.70 price target on its shares. ( ) Finally, the team at Morgans thinks that Super Retail is an ASX dividend stock to buy. It is the retail conglomerate behind the popular BCF, MacPac, Supercheap Auto, and Rebel brands. Morgans believes that Super Retail's diversified portfolio offers greater resilience to macro trends than peers. In fact, it believes that this resilience puts it in a position to continue paying special dividends in the near term. The broker is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 97 cents in FY 2025 and then 103 cents in FY 2026. Based on its current share price of $14.50, this will mean yields of 6.7% and 7.1%, respectively. Morgans currently has an add rating and $19.79 price target on its shares.
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