
It’s a daunting reality for Democrats: Republican Donald Trump's support has grown broadly since he last sought the presidency. In his defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris , Trump won a bigger percentage of the vote in each one of the 50 states, and Washington, D.C., than he did four years ago. He won more actual votes than in 2020 in 40 states, according to an Associated Press analysis. Certainly, Harris’ more than 7 million vote decline from President Joe Biden’s 2020 total was a factor in her loss, especially in swing-state metropolitan areas that have been the party’s winning electoral strongholds. But, despite national turnout that was lower than in the high-enthusiasm 2020 election, Trump received 2.5 million more votes than he did four years ago. He swept the seven most competitive states to win a convincing Electoral College victory, becoming the first Republican nominee in 20 years to win a majority of the popular vote. Trump cut into places where Harris needed to overperform to win a close election. Now Democrats are weighing how to regain traction ahead of the midterm elections in two years, when control of Congress will again be up for grabs and dozens of governors elected. There were some notable pieces to how Trump's victory came together: Though Trump improved across the map, his gains were particularly noteworthy in urban counties home to the cities of Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, electoral engines that stalled for Harris in industrial swing states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Harris fell more than 50,000 votes — and 5 percentage points — short of Biden's total in Wayne County, Michigan, which makes up the lion's share of the Detroit metro area. She was almost 36,000 votes off Biden's mark in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and about 1,000 short in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. It wasn't only Harris' shortfall that helped Trump carry the states, a trio that Democrats had collectively carried in six of the seven previous elections before Nov. 5. Trump added to his 2020 totals in all three metro counties, netting more than 24,000 votes in Wayne County, more than 11,000 in Philadelphia County and almost 4,000 in Milwaukee County. It’s not yet possible to determine whether Harris fell short of Biden’s performance because Biden voters stayed home or switched their vote to Trump — or how some combination of the two produced the rightward drift evident in each of these states. Harris advertised heavily and campaigned regularly in each, and made Milwaukee County her first stop as a candidate with a rally in July. These swings alone were not the difference in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but her weaker performance than Biden across the three metros helped Trump, who held on to big 2020 margins in the three states' broad rural areas and improved or held steady in populous suburbs. Trump's team and outside groups supporting him knew from their data that he was making inroads with Black voters, particularly Black men younger than 50, more concentrated in these urban areas that have been key to Democratic victories. When James Blair, Trump's political director, saw results coming in from Philadelphia on election night, he knew Trump had cut into the more predominantly Black precincts, a gain that would echo in Wayne and Milwaukee counties. “The data made clear there was an opportunity there,” Blair said. AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 120,000 voters, found Trump won a larger share of Black and Latino voters than he did in 2020, and most notably among men under age 45. Democrats won Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin but lost in Pennsylvania. In 2026, they will be defending governorships in all three states and a Senate seat in Michigan. Despite the burst of enthusiasm Harris' candidacy created among the Democratic base when she entered the race in July, she ended up receiving fewer votes than Biden in three of the seven states where she campaigned almost exclusively. In Arizona, she received about 90,000 fewer votes than Biden. She received about 67,000 fewer in Michigan and 39,000 fewer in Pennsylvania. In four others — Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin — Harris won more votes than Biden did. But Trump's support grew by more — in some states, significantly more. That dynamic is glaring in Georgia, where Harris received almost 73,000 more votes than Biden did when he very narrowly carried the state. But Trump added more than 200,000 to his 2020 total, en route to winning Georgia by roughly 2 percentage points. In Wisconsin, Trump's team reacted to slippage it saw in GOP-leaning counties in suburban Milwaukee by targeting once-Democratic-leaning, working-class areas, where Trump made notable gains. In the three largest suburban Milwaukee counties — Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha — which have formed the backbone of GOP victories for decades, Harris performed better than Biden did in 2020. She also gained more votes than Trump gained over 2020, though he still won the counties. That made Trump's focus on Rock County, a blue-collar area in south central Wisconsin, critical. Trump received 3,084 more votes in Rock County, home of the former automotive manufacturing city of Janesville, than he did in 2020, while Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by seven votes. That helped Trump offset Harris' improvement in Milwaukee's suburbs. The focus speaks to the strength Trump has had and continued to grow with middle-income, non-college educated voters, the Trump campaign's senior data analyst Tim Saler said. “If you're going to have to lean into working-class voters, they are particularly strong in Wisconsin,” Saler said. “We saw huge shifts from 2020 to 2024 in our favor.” Of the seven most competitive states, Arizona saw the smallest increase in the number of votes cast in the presidential contest — slightly more than 4,000 votes, in a state with more than 3.3 million ballots cast. That was despite nearly 30 campaign visits to Arizona by Trump, Harris and their running mates and more than $432 million spent on advertising by the campaigns and allied outside groups, according to the ad-monitoring firm AdImpact. Arizona, alone of the seven swing states, saw Harris fall short of Biden across small, midsize and large counties. In the other six states, she was able to hold on in at least one of these categories. Even more telling, it is also the only swing state where Trump improved his margin in every single county. While turnout in Maricopa County, Arizona's most populous as the home to Phoenix, dipped slightly from 2020 — by 14,199 votes, a tiny change in a county where more than 2 million people voted — Trump gained almost 56,000 more votes than four years ago. Meanwhile, Harris fell more than 60,000 votes short of Biden's total, contributing to a shift significant enough to swing the county and state to Trump, who lost Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020. The biggest leaps to the right weren't taking place exclusively among Republican-leaning counties, but also among the most Democratic-leaning counties in the states. Michigan's Wayne County swung 9 points toward Trump, tying the more Republican-leaning Antrim County for the largest movement in the state. AP VoteCast found that voters were most likely to say the economy was the most important issue facing the country in 2024, followed by immigration. Trump supporters were more motivated by economic issues and immigration than Harris', the survey showed. “It’s still all about the economy," said North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, a senior adviser to Democrat Josh Stein, who won North Carolina’s governorship on Nov. 5 as Trump also carried the state. “Democrats have to embrace an economic message that actually works for real people and talk about it in the kind of terms that people get, rather than giving them a dissertation of economic policy,” he said. Governor’s elections in 2026 give Democrats a chance to test their understanding and messaging on the issue, said Democratic pollster Margie Omero, whose firm has advised Wisconsin’s Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in the past and winning Arizona Senate candidate Ruben Gallego this year. “So there’s an opportunity to really make sure people, who governors have a connection to, are feeling some specificity and clarity with the Democratic economic message,” Omero said. Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission. Get local news delivered to your inbox!Why Miami’s Pop-Tarts Bowl appearance is important even after missing College Football Playoff
A range of independent TDs are contemplating the prospect of entering Ireland’s next coalition government as Fianna Fail and Fine Gael consider ways to secure a solid majority. Three long days of counting in the General Election finished late on Monday night when the final two seats were declared in the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan. Fianna Fail was the clear winner of the election, securing 48 of the Dail parliament’s 174 seats. Sinn Fein took 39 and Fine Gael 38. Labour and the Social Democrats both won 11 seats; People Before Profit-Solidarity took three; Aontu secured two; and the Green Party retained only one of its 12 seats. Independents and others accounted for 21 seats. The return of a Fianna Fail/Fine Gael-led coalition is now highly likely. However, their combined seat total of 86 leaves them just short of the 88 needed for a majority in the Dail. While the two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century could look to strike a deal with one of the Dail’s smaller centre-left parties, such as the Social Democrats or Labour, a more straightforward route to a majority could be achieved by securing the support of several independent TDs. For Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and current taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, wooing like-minded independents would be likely to involve fewer policy concessions, and financial commitments, than would be required to convince another party to join the government benches. Longford-Westmeath independent TD Kevin “Boxer” Moran, who served in a Fine Gael-led minority government between 2017 and 2020, expressed his willingness to listen to offers to join the new coalition in Dublin. “Look, my door’s open,” he told RTE. “Someone knocks, I’m always there to open it.” Marian Harkin, an independent TD for Sligo-Leitrim, expressed her desire to participate in government as she noted that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were within “shouting distance” of an overall majority. “That means they will be looking for support, and I certainly will be one of those people who will be speaking to them and talking to them and negotiating with them, and I’m looking forward to doing that, because that was the reason that I ran in the first place,” she said. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats and Irish Labour Party both appear cautious about the prospect of an alliance with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. They will no doubt be mindful of the experience of the Green Party, the junior partner in the last mandate. The Greens experienced near wipeout in the election, retaining only one of their 12 seats. Sinn Fein appears to currently have no realistic route to government, given Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s ongoing refusal to share power with the party. Despite the odds being stacked against her party, Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald contacted the leaders of the Social Democrats and Labour on Monday to discuss options. Earlier, Fianna Fail deputy leader and outgoing Finance Minister Jack Chambers predicted that a new coalition government would not be in place before Christmas. Mr Chambers said planned talks about forming an administration required “time and space” to ensure that any new government will be “coherent and stable”. After an inconclusive outcome to the 2020 election, it took five months for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens to strike the last coalition deal. Mr Chambers said he did not believe it would take that long this time, as he noted the Covid-19 pandemic was a factor in 2020, but he also made clear it would not be a swift process. He said he agreed with analysis that there was no prospect of a deal before Christmas. “I don’t expect a government to be formed in mid-December, when the Dail is due to meet on December 18, probably a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) can be elected, and there’ll have to be time and space taken to make sure we can form a coherent, stable government,” he told RTE. “I don’t think it should take five months like it did the last time – Covid obviously complicated that. But I think all political parties need to take the time to see what’s possible and try and form a stable government for the Irish people.” Fine Gael minister of state Peter Burke said members of his parliamentary party would have to meet to consider their options before giving Mr Harris a mandate to negotiate a new programme for government with Fianna Fail. “It’s important that we have a strong, stable, viable government, whatever form that may be, to ensure that we can meet the challenges of our society, meet the challenges in terms of the economic changes that are potentially going to happen,” he told RTE. Despite being set to emerge with the most seats, it has not been all good news for Fianna Fail. The party’s outgoing Health Minister Stephen Donnelly became one of the biggest casualties of the election when he lost his seat in Wicklow in the early hours of Monday morning. Mr Donnelly was always predicted to face a fight in the constituency after boundary changes saw it reduced from five to four seats. If it is to be a reprise of the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael governing partnership of the last mandate, one of the major questions is around the position of taoiseach and whether the parties will once again take turns to hold the Irish premiership during the lifetime of the new government. The outcome in 2020 saw the parties enter a coalition on the basis that the holder of the premier position would be exchanged midway through the term. Fianna Fail leader Mr Martin took the role for the first half of the mandate, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Mr Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as taoiseach when he resigned from the role earlier this year. However, this time Fianna Fail has significantly increased its seat lead over Fine Gael, compared with the last election when there were only three seats between the parties. The size of the disparity in party numbers is likely to draw focus on the rotating taoiseach arrangement, raising questions as to whether it will be re-run in the next coalition and, if it is, on what terms. On Sunday, Simon Coveney, a former deputy leader of Fine Gael, said a coalition that did not repeat the rotating taoiseach arrangement in some fashion would be a “difficult proposition” for his party. Meanwhile, Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe said he would be making the case for Mr Harris to have another opportunity to serve as taoiseach. On Monday, Mr Chambers said while his party would expect to lead the government it would approach the issue of rotating the taoiseach’s role on the basis of “mutual respect” with Fine Gael. “I think the context of discussions and negotiations will be driven by mutual respect, and that’s the glue that will drive a programme for government and that’s the context in which we’ll engage,” he said. On Monday, Labour leader Ivana Bacik reiterated her party’s determination to forge an alliance with fellow centre-left parties with the intention of having a unified approach to the prospect of entering government. Asked if Labour was prepared to go into government with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael on its own, she told RTE: “No, not at this stage. We are absolutely not willing to do that. “We want to ensure there’s the largest number of TDs who share our vision and our values who want to deliver change on the same basis that we do.” The Social Democrats have been non-committal about any potential arrangement with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and have restated a series of red lines they would need to achieve before considering taking a place in government. Leader Holly Cairns, who gave birth to a daughter on polling day on Friday, said in a statement: “The party is in a very strong position to play an important role in the next Dail. In what position, government or opposition, remains to be seen.” Fianna Fail secured the most first preference votes in Friday’s proportional representation election, taking 21.9% to Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Sinn Fein came in third on 19%. While Sinn Fein’s vote share represented a marked improvement on its disappointing showing in June’s local elections in Ireland, it is still significantly down on the 24.5% poll-topping share it secured in the 2020 general election. The final breakdown of first preferences also flipped the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Fein was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fail on 19.5%.
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