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In one of their most dovish statements in more than a decade, Chinese leaders signalled on Mondaythey are ready to deploy whatever stimulus is needed to counter the impact of expected U.S. trade tariffs on next year’s economic growth. After a meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo, officials said they would switch to an “appropriately loose” monetary policy stance, and “more proactive” fiscal levers. The previous “prudent” stance that the central bank had held for the past 14 years coincided with overalldebt – including that of governments, households and companies – jumping more than 5 times. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded roughly three times over the same period. The Politburo rarely details policy plans, but the shift in its message shows China is willing to go even deeper into debt, prioritising, at least in the near term, growth over financial risks. “From prudent to moderately loose is a big change,” said Shuang Ding, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered. “It leaves a lot of room for imagination.” Tang Yao, associate professor of applied economics at Peking University, says this policy reset is needed, because slower growth would make debt even more difficult to service. “They’ve by-and-large made peace with the fact that the debt-to-GDP ratio is going to rise further,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, adding that this was no longer “a binding constraint.” It’s unclear how much monetary easing the central bank could deploy and how much more debt the finance ministry could issue next year. But analysts say that works in Beijing’s favour. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House in January, having threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on U.S. imports of Chinese goods. The timing and the ultimate level of the levies, which a Reuters poll last month predicted at nearly 40% initially, will determine Beijing’s response. “They are willing to do ‘whatever it takes’ to achieve the GDP target,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. “But they will do so in a reactive way,” Hu said. “How much they will do in 2025 will depend on two things: their GDP target and the new U.S. tariffs.” Next year’s 2025 growth, budget deficit and other targets will be discussed – but not announced – in coming days at an annual meeting of Communist Party leaders, known as the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). Reuters reported last month that most government advisers recommend that Beijing should maintain a growth target of around 5%, even though that pace seemed difficult to reach throughout this year. The tone of the Politburo statement suggests that China won’t lower its growth ambitions for 2025, says Zong Liang, chief researcher at state-owned Bank of China. But it also suggests that China is likely to set an initial budget deficit target of around 4%, its highest ever. “Beijing may want to use the ‘around 5.0%’ growth target to show that it won’t cave to Trump’s threatened 60% tariff and other restrictive measures imposed on China,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, who also expects a 4% fiscal deficit, up from 3% in 2024. A one percentage point increase in the deficit amounts to additional stimulus of about 1.3 trillion yuan ($179.4 billion), but China can add to that if needed by issuing off-budget special bonds or allowing local governments to do so. Beijing is expected to gradually take on greater fiscal responsibility as local municipalities are too deep in debt. China is facing strong deflationary pressures as consumers feel less wealthy due to a prolonged property crisis and minimal social welfare. Low household demand is a key risk to growth. In an apparent nod to this risk, the Politburo pledged “unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments” and to “greatly boost consumption.” The new wording suggests the composition of stimulus “will likely differ substantially from past cycles, with more focus on consumption, high-tech manufacturing, and risk containment rather than traditional infrastructure and property investment,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. Morgan Stanley also read the statement as suggesting that elevating consumption will be “the No.1 key task for 2025,” but warned that “implementation remains uncertain.” China has issued increasingly forceful statements on boosting consumption throughout the year, but it has offered little in terms of policies apart from a subsidy scheme for purchases of cars, appliances and a few other goods. What else Beijing is prepared to do to boost consumption is another unknown. But demand-focused measures are key to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy easing in an economy that for decades has put production at its core. “Monetary easing in China is far less potent than it used to be,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst at Capital Economics. “There is now limited appetite among households and large parts of the private sector to take on more debt, even at lower rates.” Source: Reuters (Graphics by Kripa Jayaram; writing by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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A 7-year-old dispute between tech leaders Elon Musk and Sam Altman over who should run OpenAI and prevent an artificial intelligence "dictatorship" is now heading to a federal judge as Musk seeks to halt the ChatGPT maker's ongoing shift into a for-profit company. Musk, an early OpenAI investor and board member, sued the artificial intelligence company earlier this year alleging it had betrayed its founding aims as a nonprofit research lab benefiting the public good rather than pursuing profits. Musk has since escalated the dispute, adding new claims and asking for a court order that would stop OpenAI’s plans to convert itself into a for-profit business more fully. The world's richest man, whose companies include Tesla, SpaceX and social media platform X, last year started his own rival AI company, xAI. Musk says it faces unfair competition from OpenAI and its close business partner Microsoft, which has supplied the huge computing resources needed to build AI systems such as ChatGPT. “OpenAI and Microsoft together exploiting Musk’s donations so they can build a for-profit monopoly, one now specifically targeting xAI, is just too much,” says Musk's filing that alleges the companies are violating the terms of Musk’s foundational contributions to the charity. OpenAI is filing a response Friday opposing Musk’s requested order, saying it would cripple OpenAI’s business and mission to the advantage of Musk and his own AI company. A hearing is set for January before U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in Oakland. At the heart of the dispute is a 2017 internal power struggle at the fledgling startup that led to Altman becoming OpenAI's CEO. Musk also wanted the job, according to emails revealed as part of the court case, but grew frustrated after two other OpenAI co-founders said he would hold too much power as a major shareholder and chief executive if the startup succeeded in its goal to achieve better-than-human AI known as artificial general intelligence , or AGI. Musk has long voiced concerns about how advanced forms of AI could threaten humanity. “The current structure provides you with a path where you end up with unilateral absolute control over the AGI," said a 2017 email to Musk from co-founders Ilya Sutskever and Greg Brockman. “You stated that you don't want to control the final AGI, but during this negotiation, you've shown to us that absolute control is extremely important to you.” In the same email, titled “Honest Thoughts,” Sutskever and Brockman also voiced concerns about Altman's desire to be CEO and whether he was motivated by “political goals.” Altman eventually succeeded in becoming CEO, and has remained so except for a period last year when he was fired and then reinstated days later after the board that ousted him was replaced. OpenAI published the messages Friday in a blog post meant to show its side of the story, particularly Musk's early support for the idea of making OpenAI a for-profit business so it could raise money for the hardware and computer power that AI needs. It was Musk, through his wealth manager Jared Birchall, who first registered “Open Artificial Technologies Technologies, Inc.”, a public benefit corporation, in September 2017. Then came the “Honest Thoughts” email that Musk described as the “final straw.” “Either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit,” Musk wrote back. Musk didn't immediately respond to emailed requests for comment sent to his companies Friday. Asked about his frayed relationship with Musk at a New York Times conference last week, Altman said he felt “tremendously sad” but also characterized Musk’s legal fight as one about business competition. “He’s a competitor and we’re doing well,” Altman said. He also said at the conference that he is “not that worried” about the Tesla CEO’s influence with President-elect Donald Trump. OpenAI said Friday that Altman plans to make a $1 million personal donation to Trump’s inauguration fund, joining a number of tech companies and executives who are working to improve their relationships with the incoming administration. —————————— The Associated Press and OpenAI have a licensing and technology agreement allowing OpenAI access to part of the AP’s text archives. Matt O'brien, The Associated Press
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