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Ben Foster leads Kansas' largest independently owned broadband and communications company. OVERLAND PARK, Kan., Dec. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- NTCA–The Rural Broadband Association announced the election of board officers for 2025, including Ben Foster as Vice Chair. Foster is the president & CEO of Twin Valley and ISG Technology – together the largest independently owned broadband and communications company in Kansas. Twin Valley is rapidly growing as a rural Kansas fiber and small-to-medium business IT provider, while ISG is a top national competitor in mid-to-enterprise level IT services with locations in Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. As the premier association representing nearly 850 independent, community-based broadband companies, NTCA is committed to advancing policies that help close the digital divide and advocating on behalf of its members in the legislative and regulatory arenas. The association also provides educational programming, training and development by publishing comprehensive industry research, conducting in person and virtual events, and offering an array of employee benefit programs. "NTCA is instrumental in setting industry policy and putting important legislation in front of lawmakers," Foster said. "In my role as Vice Chair of the NTCA board, I aim to bring a rural Kansas perspective to national broadband policy discussions, ensuring the voices of local providers and communities are heard." In its Pledge made to rural communities, Twin Valley commits to building the most reliable broadband network and supporting meaningful outreach initiatives, including digital inclusion efforts. Industry policy and federal funding are keys to delivering on those commitments. As a fourth-generation leader of the Twin Valley family of companies, Foster brings a wealth of industry knowledge to the NTCA board, which he has served on from 2011 to 2014 and 2022 to present, acting as secretary/treasurer in the 2024 board year. He also serves as a board member for the Kansas Fiber Network. As NTCA board vice chair, Foster joins officers Roxie Jorgenson, director at MTA (Palmer, Alaska), who will serve as chair, and Ross Petrick, general manager/CEO of Alliance Communications Cooperative Inc. (Garretson, S.D.), who will serve as secretary/treasurer. Foster was also re-elected to serve as the Central Region Commercial Director. "As we head into a new year, I look forward to working with all of our board members to implement our new strategic plan centered around our efforts to advocate for the continued viability and sustainability of the Universal Service Fund," said NTCA CEO Shirley Bloomfield. About Twin Valley Twin Valley is a fourth-generation family business that has over 80 years' experience providing cutting-edge technology and connectivity throughout the central U.S. Twin Valley helps customers unlock possibilities to realize their full potential by providing a unique combination of broadband, mobile, home security, managed IT services, technology consulting, professional services and cloud/data center solutions for both residential and business customers. Twin Valley made a Pledge to their communities and customers, always striving to provide the most reliable broadband network, the best value for internet, local hometown customer service and meaningful community outreach initiatives. Learn more at twinvalley.com/pledge. About NTCA NTCA–The Rural Broadband Association is the premier association representing about 850 independent, community-based telecommunications companies that are leading innovative change in smart rural communities across America. In an era of transformative technological developments, regulatory challenges and marketplace competition, NTCA members are advancing efforts to close the digital divide by delivering robust and high-quality services over future-proof networks. Their commitment to building sustainable networks makes rural communities fertile ground for innovation in economic development, e-commerce, health care, agriculture and education, and it contributes billions of dollars to the U.S. economy each year. Visit us at www.ntca.org . View original content to download multimedia: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kansas-tech-ceo-ben-foster-appointed-to-vice-chair-of-national-broadband-association-board-302330769.html SOURCE Twin Valley
Ransomware attack on software supplier disrupts operations for Starbucks and other retailersAlan Shearer left stunned by Man City's late collapse against Feyenoord - and pinpoints the moment which sums up their struggles: 'Weak, frail... an absolute disaster' City had led Feyenoord 3-0 but collapsed with 15 minutes to go and drew 3-3 They have now conceded 17 games in their last six matches in dire run of form Liverpool correspondent LEWIS STEELE tells all on bombshell chat with Mo Salah - LISTEN NOW to It's All Kicking Off! New episodes every Monday and Thursday By LEWIS BROWNING Published: 23:17, 26 November 2024 | Updated: 23:18, 26 November 2024 e-mail 5 View comments Alan Shearer was left astounded by Manchester City 's late collapse against Feyenoord in the Champions League on Tuesday evening. City looked set to finally end their dire run of form at the Etihad when they breezed into a 3-0 lead thanks to an Erling Haaland brace and another strike from Ilkay Gundogan . Pep Guardiola 's side had lost their last five matches - including 4-1 against Sporting Lisbon last time out in Europe - and had hope to get back to winning ways before a difficult trip to Anfield to face Liverpool in the Premier League this weekend. That seemed a certain to happen in Manchester with around 15 minutes remaining, but a late blitz from the Dutch side saw three goals go in and the English champions rocked once again as the game ended 3-3 . The result leaves them down in 15th in the Champions League table, two points short of the top eight and having played one more game than half of the teams in the competition. And Alan Shearer, who was watching the game for Amazon Prime, was left stunned by City's latest collapse, with there currently being no sign that their struggles are going to end. Alan Shearer was left stunned as Manchester City collapsed once again on Tuesday night Pep Guardiola's side were 3-0 up with 15 minutes to play but ended up drawing 3-3 at home Shearer also picked out one specific moment which he felt summed up the side's struggles 'Conceding the way they did at the weekend, three again here. They look weak, they look frail, they're giving the opposition far too many chances, Shearer said, breaking down the performance. They were cruising midway through this game. 'What you cannot do is give the opposition hope and that's exactly what they did.' Former City player and manager Stuart Pearce, meanwhile, added: 'Liverpool will be rubbing their hands together, especially the way they play. Salah going in behind, Diaz, the runs that they make with and without the ball, they'll look at this and think it's got to be their tactic.' Feyenoord's goals all came in the last sixth of the game, with Anis Hadj Moussa getting one back on 75 minutes and Santiago Gimenez in the 82nd. City then had just a matter of minutes to hold out to cling onto the three points, but David Hancko bagged an equaliser one minute from time as home heads dropped. Shearer was left puzzles by the nature of City's play in the closing embers, and pinpointed one exact moment that summed up their current struggles. 'Even when they were winning 3-2 with two minutes to go and they're trying to take a quick free-kick,' the former striker began. 'Why? You're winning the game, there's no need to do that, sit on the ball. 'It's been an absolute disaster for them this evening after being in such a comfortable position.' Feyenoord scored three goals late on to earn a point at the home of the Premier League champions The result meant City dropped to 15th in the Champions League table and they could slip further this week City have now not won in six games, and have conceded 17 goals in their last six matches City have now conceded 17 goals in their last six games - a run which has seen them lose five games and win just once. That includes a 4-0 defeat by Tottenham at the weekend which saw them concede chances at will, while they also shipped four to Sporting, three on Tuesday and two on three occasions. Former City defended Gael Clichy could barely believe his eyes when analysing the game, and spoke about his ex-side's defensive efforts. He said: 'I'm lost for words. You can talk about what just happened but you win and lose games in both boxes. Going forward you need to be creative and give them freedom but defensively there are rules for defenders on how to defend. 'If there's pressure on the ball you cannot have your ball so high. Every detail we spoke about before the game happened in the game. From a very comfortable game 3-0 up, everyone thinking about the Liverpool game, you find yourself in a position where you haven't lost a game but it feels like a defeat.' Champions League Manchester City Alan Shearer Share or comment on this article: Alan Shearer left stunned by Man City's late collapse against Feyenoord - and pinpoints the moment which sums up their struggles: 'Weak, frail... an absolute disaster' e-mail Add comment
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President-elect Donald Trump vowed on Friday to get rid of daylight saving time, calling the practice of semiannual clock-switching “inconvenient” and “costly.” “The Republican Party will use its best efforts to eliminate Daylight Saving Time, which has a small but strong constituency, but shouldn’t! Daylight Saving Time is inconvenient, and very costly to our Nation,” Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. It’s not clear whether Trump meant that he supports making daylight saving time permanent, or simply that he supports sticking with standard time, which began on Nov. 3 this year and will end on March 9, 2025. In 2022, the Senate unanimously making daylight saving time permanent for the entire United States. The bill, titled the Sunshine Protection Act, was co-sponsored by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). The senators cited during standard time as reasons the country should do away with clock-switching. However, the GOP-controlled House never took up the bill. “It’s time to lock the clock and stop enduring the ridiculous and antiquated practice of switching our clocks back and forth. Let’s finally pass my Sunshine Protection Act and end the need to ‘fall back’ and ‘spring forward’ for good,” Rubio said in a statement this October. Opponents of the move have that early-morning darkness would be dangerous for children going to school, and would make life harder for shift workers. The U.S. tried permanent daylight saving time in the 1970s, but Congress reversed it after one year due to complaints about no sunlight in some parts of the country until 9 a.m. Republicans could have a hard time ending daylight savings in the next Congress. Although they will have a larger 53-47 majority in the Senate, their razor-thin edge in the House ― just a single vote early next year ― will make passing any controversial bill extremely difficult. Related...Conor Bradley's stunning performance in Liverpool's 2-0 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday evening has seen the young full-back get a new chant Liverpool star Conor Bradley has boosted his growing legendary status with the Reds faithful after a dazzling performance during their 2-0 Champions League victory against Real Madrid . The Northern Ireland international not only set up Alexis Mac Allister for the opener but also managed to keep global superstar Kylian Mbappe at bay throughout most of the match. There was one particular booming challenge on the French forward drawing a goal-like cheer from the Anfield stands. That moment as 'There's only one Conor Bradley' echoed around the stadium is now being celebrated in melody, thanks to indie-pop band The Ragamuffins, known for crafting tunes for other Liverpool players including Roberto Firmino . The latest chant for Bradley is set to the tune of 'Irish Rover' and is anticipated to be a hit with Liverpool supporters. The full lyrics are: "Conor Bradley can play in the Liverpool way, Conor Bradley from County Tyrone; Conor Bradley's a Red, leaves defenders for dead, Conor Bradley You'll Never Walk Alone; He can shoot, he can pass, covers every blade of grass, turned Kylian Mbappe right over; When he runs down the wing and the Kop starts to sing Conor Bradley the Irish Rover!" Fans have already expressed their excitement on social media, with comments like "Can’t wait to hear the Kop sing it. The Irish Rover," and "Brilliant.. I hope this is belted out at Anfield," - showing that the song has struck the right chord. Despite his man of the match performance against Real Madrid, Bradley's night turned sour when he was forced off late in the second half after pulling up following one run forward. Liverpool will face Manchester City on Sunday at Anfield where Arne Slot's men will hope to extend their lead of the Premier League champions to 11 points.
Article content Every year, we compile a list of the most impactful food stories to highlight the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping Canada’s agri-food sector. From policy changes and economic pressures to technological advancements and consumer-driven shifts, these stories reflect the complexities of our food system and its broader societal implications. 2024 was no exception, offering a mix of triumphs and setbacks that defined the year for farmers, consumers, and businesses. As always, this list aims to provide a balanced perspective on the events that mattered most in the agri-food world, helping us understand where we’ve been and are headed. Enjoy! 10. The Loblaw boycott that wasn’t We were uncertain about including this story on the list since it never truly materialized. Despite significant online momentum, particularly on Reddit, the boycott, which initially targeted Canadian grocers like Loblaw, Sobeys, and Metro — while excluding American giants such as Walmart and Costco — failed to gain traction. Initially declared as a one-month protest starting May 1, it was later announced as indefinite. However, the boycott’s impact was negligible, as reflected in Loblaw’s shares soaring to $195—a remarkable 27% increase since the campaign’s launch. While the financial outcome left Loblaw unscathed, the campaign sparked important discussions around “greedflation,” corporate ethics, and the public image of Canada’s major grocers. The controversy exposed a critical gap in consumer confidence and intensified calls for greater transparency in pricing and competition practices. Addressing these issues will be essential for rebuilding trust and fostering a more equitable and competitive grocery landscape in the future. Recommended video 9. Capital gains tax changes impacting farmers The June 25 increase in the capital gains inclusion rate for profits exceeding $250,000 has alarmed the agricultural sector. Farmers, often asset-rich but cash-poor, face a 30% tax hike on average, according to the Grain Growers of Canada. With Canada already losing 700–1,000 farms annually, these changes exacerbate generational succession challenges and accelerate industry consolidation. Although the lifetime capital gains exemption has increased to $1.25 million, the higher tax rate disproportionately affects family-owned farms, posing a threat to the future of Canadian agriculture. 8. Endorsement of Grocer Code of Conduct by the “Big Five” The endorsement of the Grocer Code of Conduct by Canada’s largest grocers marked a milestone in addressing power imbalances between retailers and suppliers. By fostering fairer negotiations and reducing price volatility, the code is expected to enhance transparency and stabilize the food supply chain. However, questions remain about enforcement, and grocers must demonstrate their commitment to rebuilding consumer trust through fair practices. 7. Rise of GLP-1 drugs Like Ozempic The rise of GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, marks a transformative moment in the pharmaceutical and health sectors, with the potential to impact millions worldwide. Initially developed for managing Type 2 diabetes, these drugs have gained widespread recognition for their effectiveness in promoting weight loss by suppressing appetite and slowing digestion. With global obesity rates continuing to rise, medications like Ozempic are being touted as game-changers, with experts predicting widespread adoption in the coming years. A pivotal moment in this shift occurred in February when Oprah Winfrey stepped down from the board of Weight Watchers, signalling a potential decline in traditional weight-loss programs as pharmaceutical solutions gain traction. While these drugs offer significant benefits, including improved metabolic health and reduced risks of obesity-related diseases, they also raise critical concerns. Affordability, long-term safety, and equitable access remain pressing issues. Additionally, the growing demand prompts questions about their impact on health-care systems and evolving societal attitudes toward weight loss and wellness. 6. The GST holiday and taxes on food debate Ottawa’s temporary GST/HST holiday on food and restaurant items sparked significant debate. While consumers will see minimal savings — roughly $5 at grocery stores — restaurants will benefit more, with families saving $60–$90. However, the logistical burden on retailers and regional disparities in tax rates and the possibility of opportunity pricing drew criticism. A permanent removal of GST on food would have been a more effective solution, fostering affordability without the instability of short-term policies. 5. Record food recalls and safety alerts Food recalls reached their fourth-highest level in 2024, driven by high-profile incidents involving cucumbers, bakery products, and plant-based beverages like Silk and Great Value brands. Tragically, these recalls were linked to three fatalities, emphasizing the importance of robust safety measures. This story sheds light on the ongoing challenges of managing food safety in complex supply chains, calling for stronger oversight and transparency in the agri-food industry. 4. Railway, grain, and port disruptions Labour disputes in Canada’s logistics sector disrupted the nation’s food supply chain in 2024, damaging its international reputation. With railways, ports, and other infrastructure under constant strain, these disruptions highlighted the critical importance of safeguarding the backbone of the Canadian economy. While protecting workers’ rights is vital, striking a balance to ensure uninterrupted supply chains is equally necessary. The year underscored the need for proactive labour policies to avoid holding the economy — and the food system — hostage. 3. Potential Tariffs with the Return of Donald Trump The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency reignited fears of economic disruption, particularly in Canada’s agri-food sector, which sends 60% of its agri-food exports — $40 billion worth — south of the border. Proposed tariffs of up to 25% would devastate Canadian producers, already grappling with slim margins and the carbon tax. Ottawa faced mounting pressure to develop a long-term strategy to mitigate these risks and strengthen the agri-food sector’s competitiveness in an increasingly protectionist global landscape. 2. Carbon tax debate on food prices Carbon pricing remains a divisive issue in 2024, with peer-reviewed studies confirming that the policy increases production and transport costs, ultimately eroding the competitiveness of Canadian food systems. While grocers often mitigate impacts by importing cheaper goods, this approach masks the structural weaknesses created by rising operational costs. As such, studies looking at the impact of carbon pricing on food prices are generally flawed. Critics argue that many studies dismissing the tax’s effect on food prices are influenced by funding from Environment and Climate Change Canada, raising questions of bias. Policymakers must look beyond retail price fluctuations to understand the long-term implications of carbon pricing on Canada’s agri-food sector and food security. 1. Record number of visits to food banks In 2024, the HungerCount report revealed a record-breaking number of visits to food banks, alongside Canada’s food insecurity rate reaching an unprecedented 22.9%. These figures highlight a growing affordability crisis, driven by soaring food prices, stagnant wages, and broader inflationary pressures. While some have pointed fingers at immigration, such narratives overlook the complex economic dynamics at play and the humanity at the heart of this issue. Food banks, stretched beyond capacity, are emblematic of a broader social crisis. This story underscores the urgent need for robust social safety nets and policies that prioritize affordability and inclusivity. Honourable mentions: — Upcoming approval of cloned meat in Canada: Health Canada’s consideration of cloned meat approval has sparked heated debate. While advocates point to potential benefits like enhanced livestock genetics and improved food security, critics highlight concerns about transparency, ethical implications, and biodiversity. Without mandatory labelling, consumers are left in the dark about what’s on their plates, intensifying the call for stricter regulations and open communication. — Approval of methane-reducing feed for cattle and dairy: Bovaer, a feed additive approved in February, has the potential to significantly reduce methane emissions from cattle, offering an innovative solution for sustainable farming. However, its adoption remains limited, with no clear government communication or labelling guidelines. The lack of transparency echoes past controversies like Buttergate, leaving consumers uninformed about its broader implications. — Bill C-282 to protect supply management during trade deals: The advancement of Bill C-282, aimed at protecting supply management in future trade agreements, stands as one of the year’s most significant food policy developments. The bill seeks to safeguard Canada’s dairy, poultry, and egg sectors from trade concessions, ensuring industry stability and maintaining predictable prices for consumers. However, its progress has stalled in the Senate, casting doubt on whether it will pass before a new U.S. administration, potentially less favourable to Canada’s supply management system, takes office in January. Critics argue that the legislation could restrict Canada’s flexibility in broader trade negotiations. Nevertheless, supporters view it as essential for preserving food sovereignty and protecting Canadian farmers from an increasingly unpredictable global market. — Bill C-293: Canada’s “Vegan Act:” Originally focused on pandemic preparedness, Bill C-293 has sparked controversy for promoting alternative proteins and de-risking animal protein production. Proponents argue the bill aligns with sustainability goals and food innovation, while critics fear it marginalizes traditional farming. The ongoing debate highlights the tension between progressive food policies and the preservation of Canada’s agricultural heritage. — Ottawa’s tightening of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program: While changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program aimed to prioritize domestic hiring, they have exacerbated labour shortages in agriculture and food processing. While the policy seeks to address labour exploitation, it risks destabilizing sectors heavily reliant on foreign workers, calling for a more balanced approach to ensure workforce stability. Happy Holidays! — Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.
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Comedian Eddie Griffin Mocks Jaguar Ad Featuring Crossdressers but No Car: ‘All You Them/Theys, Y’all Lost’TOKYO (AP) — Troops surround South Korea's parliament overnight when the president declares martial law. He accuses pro-North Korean forces of plotting to overthrow one of the world’s most vibrant democracies. Lawmakers voice outrage and vote to end the declaration, and the president lifts the decree before daybreak. President Yoon Suk Yeol spread fear and confusion through South Korea overnight by issuing his sudden edict late Tuesday, the first martial law declaration since more than four decades ago when the country was controlled by a dictatorship. The declaration, the rushed vote by lawmakers to overturn it and the president's lifting of martial law soon afterward were moments of high drama for an unpopular leader who has struggled with political deadlock in an opposition-dominated parliament and scandals involving him and his wife. While there was no direct evidence presented, Yoon raised the specter of North Korea as a destabilizing force. Yoon has long maintained that a hard line against the North is the only way to stop Pyongyang from following through on its nuclear threats against Seoul. Amid the surreal scenes of troops massing around parliament, here are some things to know as this story unfolds: Immediately after Yoon's declaration the military chief called in key commanders for talks. South Korean troops set up barricades and then made their way into parliament. The leader of the main opposition, which controls parliament, ordered lawmakers to return to the building, where they eventually voted to lift the declaration of martial law. Yoon lifted the martial law decree around 4:30 a.m. during a Cabinet meeting. Yoon's declaration had been accompanied by an accusation that the opposition was engaged in “anti-state activities plotting rebellion.” But he did not explain what that means, and provided no specific evidence. The vague statement is reminiscent of the heavy-handed tactics of the South Korean dictatorships that ended in the late 1980s. A series of strongmen repeatedly invoked North Korea when struggling to control domestic dissidents and political opponents. The opposition lambasted Yoon's move as un-democratic. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 presidential election, called Yoon’s announcement “illegal and unconstitutional.” But the sudden declaration was also opposed by the leader of Yoon's own conservative party, Han Dong-hoon, who called the decision “wrong” and vowed to “stop it with the people.” “The people will block the president’s anti-constitutional step. The military must be on the side of the public in any case. Let’s resolutely oppose it,” Kim Dong Yeon, the opposition party governor of Gyeonggi province, which surrounds Seoul, wrote on X. Average South Koreans were in shock. Social media was flooded with messages expressing surprise and worry over Yoon’s announcement. “Martial law? I thought it was deepfake content, but is it really a martial law decree?,” one X user wrote. “I first thought about a war with North Korea when he said he would impose a martial law,” another X user wrote. There were quick claims that the emergency declaration was linked to Yoon’s political struggles. His approval rating has dropped, and he has had little success in getting his policies adopted by a parliament that has been controlled by the opposition since he took over in 2022. Conservatives have said the opposition moves are political revenge for investigations into the opposition leader, who is seen as the favorite for the next presidential election in 2027. Just this month, Yoon denied wrongdoing in an influence-peddling scandal involving him and his wife. The claims have battered his approval ratings and fueled attacks by his rivals. The scandal centers on claims that Yoon and first lady Kim Keon Hee exerted inappropriate influence on the conservative ruling People Power Party to pick a certain candidate to run for a parliamentary by-election in 2022 at the request of Myung Tae-kyun, an election broker and founder of a polling agency who conducted free opinion surveys for Yoon before he became president . Yoon has said he did nothing inappropriate. South Korea became a democracy only in the late 1980s, and military intervention in civilian affairs is still a touchy subject. During the dictatorships that emerged as the country rebuilt from the destruction of the 1950-53 Korean War, leaders occasionally proclaimed martial law that allowed them to station combat soldiers, tanks and armored vehicles on streets or in public places to prevent anti-government demonstrations. Such scenes are unimaginable for many today. The dictator Park Chung-hee, who ruled South Korea for nearly 20 years before he was assassinated by his spy chief in 1979, led several thousand troops into Seoul in the early hours of May 16, 1961, in the country’s first successful coup. During his rule, he occasionally proclaimed martial law to crack down on protests and jail critics. Less than two months after Park Chung-hee’s death, Maj. Gen. Chun Doo-hwan led tanks and troops into Seoul in December 1979 in the country’s second successful coup. The next year, he orchestrated a brutal military crackdown on a pro-democracy uprising in the southern city of Gwangju, killing at least 200 people. In the summer of 1987, massive street protests forced Chun’s government to accept direct presidential elections. His army buddy Roh Tae-woo, who had joined Chun’s 1979 coup, won the election held later in 1987 thanks largely to divided votes among liberal opposition candidates. AP writers Kim Tong-hyung and Hyung-jin Kim contributed to this story.
Economists at two Southern California universities see new reasons to worry ahead, namely policies from the nation’s next president. They warn in new forecasts released this week that the economy may stumble in 2025 because of controversial policies promised by President-elect Donald Trump. Economist James Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University, said the economy “still appears to be strong,” even though a long period of declining inflation could reverse course under Trump. A year ago, Doti’s reading of the tea leaves showed “very slow growth” and no recession in 2024. Today, he’s sticking to a similar tale of “slow growth” that now extends through 2025. New to the mix is “some upward pressure” on inflation due to proposed tariffs and mass deportations Trump has vowed to launch after his inauguration in January. Economist Jerry Nickelsburg at UCLA agreed with Doti’s analysis. “The underlying fundamentals of the economy are strong. They have been for some time, which is why we did not say that we were going to have a recession in 2023 or 2022,” said the director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “Now, that doesn’t mean that geopolitical events or different policies from Washington that are not in our forecast couldn’t generate a recession. It’s just not in the data right now.” Both economists said Trump is inheriting a strong economy that will grow more slowly than previously forecast while it adjusts to new national economic policies. Cloudy times The clarity of post-presidential election forecasts at Chapman and UCLA are clouded by Trump’s plans to implement several economic policies promised during his 2024 campaign. Among the most controversial policies are new or increased tariffs on the nation’s largest trading partners – including Canada, China and Mexico. Policies also include mass deportations, tax cuts and deregulation. Doti believes Trump’s vow to deport of 500,000 to 1 million undocumented immigrants and 10%-25% tariffs on imported goods could push inflation closer to 3% than the Fed’s desired 2% level. How these policies manifest is not necessarily clear, considering practical, legal and political constraints on implementation, according to Nickelsburg. The UCLA professor of economics said this month’s forecast was one of the most difficult ones he’s ever written, with the exception of a recession prediction four years ago as the COVID-19 pandemic began. “When we did our March forecast in 2020, we had no idea how the pandemic was going to play out, and so there was a great deal of uncertainty then as well as now,” he said. “Economic policy in Washington is changing in a pretty fundamental way, so that increases uncertainty until we get some clarity as to what policies are going to be implemented.” Meanwhile, UCLA predicts a slowdown in interest rate cuts as the federal government grapples with those new policies. Nickelsburg sees the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its board of governors meeting Dec. 18. He expects a pause on cuts until 2026 when the economy has absorbed the impacts of tariffs. The Fed could end up with interest rates hovering between 4% and 4.25% in 2026, he said. Doti has a different take, saying the Fed won’t cut rates in December and will instead take a wait-and-see approach. He expects the central bank will make only two, 25 basis-point cuts in 2025. “The reason we don’t think there’ll be a cut in rates next week is because we still have high inflation (2.7% for the year ended in November 2024), and it’s above the Fed’s target range of 2%, and GDP growth is at 2.8%, and job growth has still been very strong,” Doti said. “Given the Fed’s cautious approach, it’ll hold back on making further cuts.” Growth in gross domestic product, used to measure the nation’s economic health, is expected to fall to 1.4% by the end of 2025 from 2.8% in the 2024’s third quarter, he said. Tough housing market Both economists said the state of housing in California is showing financial strain. On the construction front, residential permits in California are forecast to rise by 12.9% in 2025, despite continuing high mortgage rates, Doti said. He argued that high mortgage rates may indirectly spur new construction. “There is a paucity of resale homes on the market because homeowners don’t want to sell and lose their sweetheart locked-in mortgages,” he said. “That has led to a sharp drop in resale home sales. The dearth of resale homes on the market is buttressing demand for new homes, often available for sale at heavily subsidized financing rates.” Nickelsburg said normalization is slowly returning to the California housing market, but potential construction cost increases due to tariffs and labor shortages could slow that process. “Builders should be responding with new development given existing homes sales are at depression levels,” said Nickelsburg. Tightening job market Both forecasts raised concerns about the jobs picture. Doti sees economic growth in California hampered by population losses, which he blames on the state’s regulatory and tax burdens, which have led people and businesses to leave for cheaper states like Florida and Texas. California’s job growth is forecast to rise 4.6% to 18.2 million in 2025, up from 17.4 million in 2019, but trailing U.S. job growth of 5.9% over the same period. The flight of people from the state also has lowered retail sales tax revenue, prompting some cities to raise sales tax rates in order to replenish budgets left with financial gaps. Data from Chapman showed fewer people are shopping, which translates to less tax revenue for cities. For the year-period that ended June 30, 2024, retail sales fell 4% in Orange County, 2.3% in Los Angeles County, 1.2% in the Inland Empire and 0.8% in San Diego County. For Nickelsburg, the big unknown on jobs will be the mass deportation and tariff policies of the incoming president, and their impact on a wide of industries including agriculture, construction, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and transportation and warehousing industries. Taken together, the deportations and tariffs will raise the prices for many goods and services, and potentially cause product shortages and higher labor costs as jobs go unfilled, he argued. “The uncertainty regarding the future path of unemployment is more elevated than usual because the impact of mass deportations on unemployment is not well understood due to limited empirical research on the subject,” according to Nickelsburg.
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