China's policymakers are set to take a more proactive approach to macroeconomic policies in the year ahead, aiming to tackle both short-term challenges arising from lackluster demand and structural issues, said economists. Citing the recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference, they said the country is fine-tuning its macroeconomic strategy, marking a significant shift toward a consumption-driven economy as it prepares for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in 2025. "The deficit ratio for 2025 is likely to be the highest on record," said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, anticipating that the government would set the projected deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2025 at 3.5-4 percent or higher in March, up from 3 percent for this year. The Chinese government started to release the annual projected deficit ratio in 2010, with the highest reading in 2020 at 3.6 percent as COVID-19 hit, according to market tracker Wind Info. Xiong said next year's quota of special local government bonds is expected to increase to more than 4.5 trillion yuan ($616.5 billion) from a record high of 3.9 trillion yuan this year, in addition to special treasury bonds of over 2 to 3 trillion yuan in 2025, up from 1 trillion yuan for 2024. Xiong's remarks came as the Central Economic Work Conference held in December pledged to implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, boost domestic demand, drive the integration of sci-tech innovation and industrial innovation, and stabilize the real estate sector and stock markets. The nation will maintain basic equilibrium in the balance of payments and better synchronize the income growth of households and economic expansion, according to the meeting. "While promoting industrial sectors was the top task last year, expanding domestic demand is in the top spot this year," said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura. Lu said that the conference called for more specific measures to support consumption, including increasing basic pension payments, raising fiscal subsidies for basic medical insurance and developing policies to boost fertility. "Overall, the conference adds support to our relatively optimistic view on fiscal policies in 2025 and our view that Beijing may stick to the 'around 5 percent' GDP growth target in 2025," he said. According to the conference, policymakers pledged to roll out more initiatives to boost consumption, including greater strides in equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs. Looking forward, Lu said policymakers might consider an increase in spending on social security for lower-income households and encouraging childbirth. "We especially expect policymakers to significantly increase payments to those rural pensioners (55 percent of total pensioners) whose average monthly pension income is only 225 yuan," he said. "They may also increase financial support for families with a second or third child. And they may also waive part of the annual 400 yuan fee on basic medical insurance for low-income individuals." As the conference reiterated a "more proactive fiscal policy", Lu said his team forecasts a total of 3.6 trillion yuan in incremental borrowing for 2025 versus 2024, or around 2.6 percent of GDP. "We expect the official deficit ratio to be raised from 3 percent this year to 4 percent next year," he said. "We expect net financing from central government special bonds to be raised to 1.5 trillion yuan from 1 trillion yuan in 2024." Regarding local government special bonds, Lu said his teams expect a small increase to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024. Echoing the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held earlier this month, the Central Economic Work Conference statement vowed to conduct "moderately accommodative" monetary policy, switching away from a "prudent" monetary policy for the past 14 years. "The use of words 'moderately accommodative' for monetary policy is the first time since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in July 2010, when China was still dealing with the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Lu added. "The readout emphasizes the dual roles of aggregate and structural monetary policy instruments, leaving room for potential incremental policies from these People's Bank of China structural facilities." The Central Economic Work Conference also promises to launch policy rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in a timely manner or whenever it is deemed appropriate, maintaining sufficient liquidity, leading the growth rate of aggregate financing and monetary supply to be mostly aligned with the expected targets of economic growth and price inflation. "The focus on the policy rate and RRR cuts is consistent with our view, as we forecast two rounds of policy rate cuts in the first quarter and second quarter of 2025, respectively, and one 50-basis-point RRR cut before end-2024 and two 50-basis-points RRR cuts in 2025," Lu said. With the help of a raft of government measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing growth in the second half of this year, China's economy showed sustained recovery with the latest economic indicators pointing to green shoots of a steady rebound heading into 2025. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's value-added industrial output grew 5.4 percent year-on-year in November, up from a 5.3 percent rise in the previous month. "This improvement reflects the impact of a series of incremental policy measures that have bolstered market confidence and supported demand recovery," said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. Looking ahead, Wang believes that the demand for consumption and investment will continue to pick up amid a series of stimulus measures, driving strong growth in industrial production. "Industrial production growth will remain robust in December, likely in the range of 5 percent to 6 percent." NBS data showed that the growth of retail sales slowed to 3 percent year-on-year in November from 4.8 percent in October, while fixed-asset investment saw 3.3 percent year-on-year growth during the January-November period, down from 3.4 percent in the first 10 months. Wang said the growth rate of retail sales slowed in November, as this year's "Double 11" shopping festival presale started earlier, shifting some consumer demand from November to October. With consumption-boosting policies taking effect gradually and the gradual improvement in consumer sentiment, Wang estimated retail sales to grow around 4.5 percent year-on-year in December. "We anticipate that in 2025, policy measures to stimulate consumption will be further ramped up," he said. Among these measures, Wang said the country may fund a 600 billion yuan tradein deal for consumer goods to spark household demand, and the range of subsidized products is likely to expand to include consumer electronics, home furnishings, and other durable goods. Meanwhile, he believes fiscal support for childbirth might be piloted next year, such as one-time or monthly subsidies for families with newborns, with the support scale potentially reaching 100 billion yuan. "There may also be a nationwide issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies in 2025, which would expand the scope of consumption stimulation from durable goods to include general merchandise and service consumption," he said. "This reflects an important shift in the current macroeconomic policy direction, where the previous countercyclical investment policies with a key emphasis on investment are now shifting toward a more balanced approach, prioritizing both consumption and investment, with an increased focus on consumption."EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- It was Sept. 10, 2023, the first game for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants since the quarterback signed a four-year, $160 million contract seven months earlier. Jones was pressured on 23 dropbacks and sacked seven times in a 40-0 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys . His top pass protector, left tackle Andrew Thomas , injured his hamstring and didn't return until the second half of that season. Things went poorly for Jones and the Giants after he signed that mega-deal, and the deterioration happened quickly. Jones was released on Friday, 439 days after the dismantling by the Cowboys. He'd won three of 16 starts, throwing 10 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions before being benched in favor of Tommy DeVito . Jones, 27, went to Giants ownership on Friday to ask for his release one day after spending part of Thursday's practice playing scout-team safety. The Giants and Jones decided it was best for the parties to split with seven games remaining in the season. Editor's Picks Could Daniel Jones still have success in the NFL? His case for another shot, plus five team fits 3h Ben Solak "Of course, this season has been disappointing for all and, of course, I wish I could have done more," Jones said Thursday during what was essentially his goodbye news conference. "I'm 100% accountable for my part. I did not play well enough, consistently enough, to help the team get the results." It barely got better after that loss to the Cowboys. Jones did play well in the second half the following week in Arizona, but by Week 4 of the 2023 season, Jones could be seen by a national audience getting sacked 10 times and throwing a pick-six in a blowout loss on "Monday Night Football" to the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. He was never healthy again in 2023. Jones hurt his neck while getting pummeled late in a loss to the Miami Dolphins the following week. He returned four weeks later only to tear the ACL in his right knee in the first quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders . Just like that, his season was over. So was any viable chance of at succeeding in New York. "Probably part of it was injuries," DeVito said. "Last year [Jones] got dinged up a bunch during the games, probably wasn't fully healthy at all times. But was still going out there and giving it his all. Some of the times probably wasn't able to get the best version of himself out there. Probably isn't fair to him but ... when you go out there to play, you go out there to play." Jones will ultimately be judged on the final results, which weren't good since a playoff win in 2022, the most successful season of his career. He finished that season sixth in the NFL with a QBR of 62.9, but ranks 26th among qualifying quarterbacks with a QBR of 53.0 since entering the league in 2019. The Giants flirted with drafting a quarterback this past offseason, a key topic highlighted on HBO's "Hard Knocks," which chronicled the team's preseason. The program showed coach Brian Daboll in a pre-draft meeting being asked if he would trade up for Jayden Daniels . "Daniels?" Daboll said. "I would." General manager Joe Schoen was also heard telling the New England Patriots to keep the Giants in mind if they were going to trade the No. 3 overall pick. Common sense says the Giants were never trading up for a non-quarterback, especially after sources confirmed their strong interest in Drake Maye . The North Carolina product was eventually selected No. 3 overall by the Patriots. Multiple sources close to the quarterback believe the public search for a quarterback affected Jones, placing extra pressure on him early this season. Not only was he coming back from a serious knee injury, but now Jones carried this burden to be successful immediately. Jones clearly wasn't the same quarterback this season as he was in 2022. His accuracy -- never among the biggest concerns with Jones in the past -- was a problem from the start of training camp. At times this summer, he was consistently underthrowing deep balls. In an effort to self-correct, Jones admitted overthrowing. This acknowledgement perhaps detailed the internal battle he was facing post-knee surgery and two neck injuries. Best of NFL Nation • Steelers, fans not rattled by anti-Terrible Towels • Chubb opens up about road to recovery • Is Mike Evans' 1,000-yard streak in jeopardy? • Cowboys having tough transition at DC • QB Anthony Richardson's legs key for Colts Even with the perception that he had improved receivers, including dazzling rookie Malik Nabers , Jones' confidence didn't appear high, and multiple players told ESPN his relationship with Daboll appeared different. One described it as "weird" at times. The tension seemed to boil to the surface in front of an international audience watching the Giants playing the Carolina Panthers in Germany two weeks ago. Daboll, who took over playcalling this season to try to fix a broken offense, called for a flea-flicker on a third-and-1. Two receivers were wide open but Jones failed to throw the football. Daboll was shown on TV yelling while running up the sideline. After about 20 yards he ran into one of the open wide receivers, Wan'Dale Robinson , and slapped his hand. They both seemed to know that a big play was there to be had. Several Giants players were watching the play together on their phones when the media entered the locker room at Allianz Stadium. It seemed evident at that point the Giants would soon turn the page on Jones, whose QBR this season is a career-worst of 46.5. They surprisingly went to DeVito, the third-stringer and emergency quarterback for every game this season, over second-stringer Drew Lock . Whatever the reasons for that decision, Jones had bottomed out during the team's five-game losing streak, signaling his end with the Giants. He was benched, eventually released. The contract will go down as one of the worst in Giants history. His tenure will ultimately be considered unsuccessful, with one winning season in six years. "Playing in New York didn't help," wide receiver and close friend Darius Slayton said. "The media pressure is so immense on the coach and the players. It's eventually going to deteriorate."
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Most federal employees are set to start the new year making a little more cash after President Joe Biden signed an executive order Monday. The executive order, announced Monday by the White House, said that a 2% pay increase will be given to most civilian federal employees starting on January 2025. According to reporting from Federal News Network , the raise is part of set increases proposed throughout the year. According to the executive order, the 2% increase is an average, as raises for employees will be determined by location. Therefore, some will see slightly more or less than a 2% pay raise. Another pay increase of 4.5% was given to military members as part of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. Earlier this year, a pay raise of 5.2% on average was given to federal employees, making it the largest increase in 40 years . The Office of Personnel Management told the Federal News Network that the pay raise “recognizes the federal workforce’s dedication and service to the American people and positions the federal government to better compete in the labor market to attract and retain a well-qualified federal workforce while accounting for the fiscal constraints federal agencies face in fiscal 2025.” Biden makes news on pay raises and Christmas Eve Biden also recently announced Christmas Eve as a day off for the country’s more than 2 million federal employees. The White House announced on Thursday that Biden signed an executive order gifting federal employees the day off on Dec. 24, 2024. "All executive departments and agencies of the Federal Government shall be closed and their employees excused from duty on Tuesday, December 24, 2024, the day before Christmas Day," according to the White House's announcement . Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@gannett.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
Booking Holdings chief human resources officer sells $878,169 in stockThe Baltimore Ravens will travel to Houston on Wednesday for a Christmas Day game against the Texans. You would imagine Lamar Jackson is most excited to face another AFC contender, beginning to prepare for the playoffs. As things stand, Baltimore and Houston would face each other in the Wildcard round. But you would be wrong, as the former MVP is really looking forward to the Beyonce halftime show at NRG Stadium. “I’m going to go out there and watch,” Jackson said . “I’m going to go out there and watch, man. It’s my first time watching Beyonce perform and it’s at our game? That’s dope. I’m going to go out there and watch. Sorry, (head coach John) Harbaugh . Sorry, fellas.” In Jackson’s defense, Baltimore has already locked up their spot in the playoffs. At this point, all there is to play for is a potential AFC North title and potentially seeding. Surely some time can be carved out for Jackson to watch Beyonce perform. Kickoff from Houston is scheduled for 3:30 p.m., with Netflix broadcasting the game. Although, people in Baltimore and Houston will be able to watch on broadcast TV. The NFL is playing on Christmas Day for the fifth consecutive season. Plenty of people will be tuning in for the matchups, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers also facing off. But a halftime show from Beyonce in the later window will attract plenty of viewers, just ask Jackson. Hopefully, things are going well for the Ravens and Harbaugh does not mind going through halftime without his quarterback. Some other players might become a member of the audience as well, getting a front row seat to the concert. Houston picks up former Baltimore wide receiver ahead of Christmas matchup The Houston Texans have picked up WR Diontae Johnson on waivers on Monday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports. The move comes after the Texans lost WR Tank Dell for the season with a significant knee injury. Houston is the third team Johnson will play on this season having spent time with the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens, the latter of which waived him last week. Houston takes on Baltimore on Christmas day, but it’s unclear if Johnson will be able to suit up for the Texans for the matchup. On3’s Barkley Truax contributed to this report This article first appeared on 5 GOATs and was syndicated with permission.
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