On Monday, faced with the impossibility of passing the social security budget, and despite the many concessions made to the far right, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier decided to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to force through legislation unless a motion of no confidence is passed. The primary aim was to implement the social security budget. This decision opens up the possibility for members of parliament to table a motion of censure against Barnier’s government. On Monday evening, the left-wing parties (124 MPs) and right-wing parties (Marine Le Pen’s RN and Eric Ciotti’s supporters, 140 MPs) decided to submit a motion of no confidence. These motions of no confidence will be analysed and voted on in the National Assembly no earlier than the evening of Wednesday, 4 December. To bring down the government, a majority of the 577 MPs must support them. To obtain a majority, the left-wing parties must vote with the far-right RN on the same motion of censure. This would lead to the fall of the government. At this stage, this is the most likely scenario, as Le Pen has indicated that her party is prepared to vote in favour of the motion of censure tabled by left-wing MPs. While a last-minute twist is still possible, all indications are that the government will have fallen by the end of the week, less than three months after its appointment. This will usher in a new period of political uncertainty. There will be no dissolution of the National Assembly or early elections before July 2025, as the Constitution provides for a minimum period of one year between elections. Then, based on the forces present, President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister. Two scenarios are possible: either a new government is appointed in December, or there is no new government until the end of 2024. Given the challenges in appointing Barnier as prime minister, the likelihood of finding a replacement quickly is highly uncertain. With an extremely polarised National Assembly divided into three major camps – left, centre-right and extreme right – who are unable to reach a compromise, the risk of a new vote of no confidence for any new government is very high. In any case, it is almost certain that there will not be a majority to pass a state budget or a social security budget before the end of the year. The last few weeks have shown that MPs and Senators are extremely divided on how to restore public finances and that a consensus is virtually impossible. It seems unlikely that France will have a 2025 budget. However, this doesn’t imply a shutdown where France can’t meet its financial obligations. A provisional budget, likely mirroring the 2024 budget, will probably be implemented. Such a budget will not rectify the trajectory of public spending. The public deficit is expected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2024. The Barnier government had hoped to reduce it to 5% by 2025, but without a budget voted for in 2025, this target will not be met. The provisional budget will be slightly restrictive, as tax scales will not be adjusted for inflation, but will not contain any real savings measures. As a result, it will not be enough to set the trajectory of French public finances in the desired direction and will not respect the commitments made by France to the European authorities. At a time when economic growth in France is slowing markedly, this is bad news. The public deficit will remain high, debt will continue to grow and the next government – whenever that may be – will have an even tougher task to put public finances right. In short, the political situation will delay and likely complicate the recovery of public finances, but it will eventually occur. The only difference is that the starting point will be later. This French political stand-off is just one more negative for the euro. With the eurozone economy facing the threat of tariffs in 2025 and the region lacking any prospect of cohesive fiscal support, the potential fall of the French government merely adds to views that the ECB will have to do the heavy lifting in 2025. Notably, short-dated yield spreads have moved against EUR/USD as this French crisis comes to a head, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.05. Seasonally the dollar is weak in December. Europe will remain a drag on EUR/USD into year-end. With both the French and German governments in limbo, any EUR/USD bounce will have to be driven by softer US data and a dovish 25bp rate cut from the Fed on 18 December. Overall, we have a year-end target for EUR/USD at 1.05, but see the risks skewed towards the 1.02/03 area. Typically, EUR/CHF comes under pressure when European politics hit the headlines. We are a little surprised it is still trading above 0.93 and expect it to press 0.92 should it become clear that the Swiss National Bank cannot cut rates as deeply as the ECB next year. French bond spreads already reflect a lot of pessimism The 10y yield spread of French government bonds over their German peers widened to 88bp on Monday. Further widening looks likely as politics enters a new phase of elevated uncertainty. Looking at relative valuation across the entire eurozone bond spectrum, there are two key takeaways. First, the spillover to other markets has been limited. Italy, for instance, is still at spread levels closer to their tightest since 2021. Second, markets had been wary about the prospects of quickly solving French fiscal problems to begin with, reflecting an expectation of looming rating downgrades. Following the latest widening, French 10y spreads over swaps are more in line with an “A-“ rating rather than its current “AA-“ – three notches lower. In fact, French spreads are already well above Spain’s and now are on a par with those of Greece. Government fragility was always part of the picture, even if not expected to come to a head quite so soon. Though it may take a while, a clearer picture going forward should allow spreads to recover from these stretched levels. However, France won’t be able to avoid a more lasting downgrade in its implied rating by the market, making the spread levels against Bunds seen before June’s elections seem quite distant. Source: INGWith Trump on the way, advocates look to states to pick up medical debt fight
At just €61 million, the transfer fee for this rising star has been heralded as a stroke of genius by Chelsea's recruitment team. In an era where top players are commanding fees upwards of €100 million, securing such a promising talent for a relatively modest sum is a testament to the club's shrewd negotiation skills. The value for money that Chelsea have secured in this deal is sure to have their rivals green with envy.Fourteen years have passed since the term "moderate easing" was introduced into the economic lexicon. Initially used during a time of financial turbulence and uncertainty, the concept aimed to strike a balance between stimulating economic growth and preventing overheating. However, as we find ourselves once again contemplating its relevance, it is imperative to delve deeper into what revisiting "moderate easing" truly signifies for our current economic landscape.
NoneNetanyahu's recent statement reaffirming Israel's claim to the Golan Heights comes at a time of heightened tensions in the region, with threats from Iran and its proxies looming large. The Prime Minister emphasized that any attempt to challenge Israel's presence in the Golan Heights would be met with a strong and uncompromising response, underscoring Israel's determination to defend its borders and protect its citizens.
NoneMINNEAPOLIS, Dec. 03, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC), a leader in retail supply chain cloud services, today announced that management will present at the Nasdaq 51st Investor Conference on Tuesday, December 10, 2024, at 3:00 PM GMT. A webcast of the presentation will be available on the company’s investor relations website at http://investors.spscommerce.com/events.cfm . About SPS Commerce SPS Commerce is the world’s leading retail network, connecting trading partners around the globe to optimize supply chain operations for all retail partners. We support data-driven partnerships with innovative cloud technology, customer-obsessed service and accessible experts so our customers can focus on what they do best. To date, more than 120,000 companies in retail, grocery, distribution, supply, and logistics have chosen SPS as their retail network. SPS has achieved 95 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and is headquartered in Minneapolis. For additional information, contact SPS at 866-245-8100 or visit www.spscommerce.com . SPS COMMERCE, SPS, SPS logo and INFINITE RETAIL POWER are marks of SPS Commerce, Inc. and registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, along with other SPS marks. Such marks may also be registered or otherwise protected in other countries. Contact: Investor Relations The Blueshirt Group Irmina Blaszczyk Lisa Laukkanen SPSC@blueshirtgroup.com 415-217-4962 SPS-F
Upon receiving the email from the employee, the supervisor immediately escalated the issue to HR, leading to an internal investigation. Despite the employee's good intentions and genuine concerns about their compensation, the violation of the salary confidentiality policy was deemed a serious offense, resulting in the decision to terminate their employment.Olympic prize money ‘unfair’, favours the elite, says IOCMarvell Technology, Inc. Reports Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 Financial ResultsIn response to these violations, the authorities in Tongzhou District have taken immediate action to address the situation. The kindergarten has been ordered to cease operations until further notice, and a thorough investigation is being conducted to determine the extent of the violations and any potential harm caused to the children. Additionally, steps are being taken to ensure that all kindergartens in the district are complying with regulations and providing a high standard of care and education to their students.
As the investigation into the identity of the mysterious blogger continues, the case serves as a cautionary tale about the power of storytelling and the importance of responsible journalism. In an era where social media allows anyone to share their thoughts and experiences with the world, it is crucial to exercise discernment and integrity in distinguishing between fact and fiction.Past meets present: Monroe City Tournament celebrates 100th year
The rationale behind this call for mass expulsion revolves around the perceived threat posed by undocumented immigrants to the country's economy, social welfare system, and public safety. Proponents argue that these individuals have entered the country illegally, circumventing the established immigration processes and potentially taking away opportunities from American citizens and legal residents. They also point to instances of criminal behavior among some undocumented immigrants as evidence of the need to crack down on this population.Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to secure your new home in Fengtai District public rental housing. Experience the convenience, affordability, and sense of community that this vibrant district has to offer. Apply now and make Fengtai District your new home sweet home!AP Business SummaryBrief at 4:07 p.m. EST