SINGAPORE companies remain slightly optimistic about business prospects over the next six months, as they exited a nearly two-year-long period of sales contraction in the third quarter of 2024, a quarterly survey has shown. The net balance for business prospects was 7 per cent, down by a “negligible” one percentage point from the previous quarter, the latest Business Times-Singapore University of Social Sciences Business Climate Survey showed. The net balance is the difference between the share of companies with an increase and those with a decrease in an indicator, compared to the year-ago period. A positive net balance suggests expansion. For the first time in two years, the sales net balance was positive, indicating expansion. It was 6 per cent, strengthening eight points from the previous quarter. This brings a close to the seven-quarter-long contraction phase in sales – the fifth such phase since the survey began in 1996. However, survey consultant Chow Kit Boey noted that the net balance was lower for overall sales than overseas ones, implying that domestic sales were worse than sales abroad. Economists said this is consistent with Singapore’s export-led economic recovery that is also reflected in official data. OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said the improvement in the global electronics industry may be a contributing factor, while stimulus measures in China could have helped stabilise the Chinese economy as well. Overseas customers may have also been front-loading imports ahead of expected trade tensions under incoming US president Donald Trump, she added. It is thus “not a total surprise that overseas sales may have outperformed domestic sales, which were possibly restrained by the gradually cooling local labour market conditions”, she said. Separately, for orders and new business, contraction eased by a further three percentage points to -6 per cent in Q3, marking the fourth straight month of improvement. But performance did not improve in terms of profits, which remained in contraction. The profits net balance was unchanged at -10 per cent in Q3, despite having eased for three straight quarters previously. Economists told BT that the continued contraction could be reflective of elevated business costs. They also do not expect things to improve. Maybank economist Brian Lee said: “Firms will have to grapple with more policy-induced cost increases in the months ahead, particularly on the manpower front, for instance with the hikes in S-Pass qualifying salaries and levy rates.” From Sep 1 next year, the minimum qualifying salary for new S-Pass applications will rise to at least S$3,300, while the Tier 1 levy rate will also be increased to S$650, from S$550. Minimum qualifying salaries for Employment Passes are also set to rise from Jan 1, to S$5,600, from S$5,000. Bucking the trend of contracting profits, however, was the financial and business services sector. In this segment, companies whose profits improved in Q3 outnumbered those whose profits declined. Financial and business services companies have also turned optimistic about business prospects in the next six months. The sector was one of two “star performer” segments in the Q3 survey, alongside commerce. Companies in the commerce sector were the only group to see expansion in orders or new business. When asked which countries held the best business prospects in the next 12 months, businesses were most bullish about Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, with these answers accounting for 55 per cent of responses. Overall, Singapore remains the most-cited country. But its vote share has fallen, and it now shares the top rank with Indonesia, the survey consultant Chow noted. Compared with a year ago, more companies now see Indonesia as offering the best business prospects, she noted. Among small companies, Indonesia has overtaken Malaysia to reach the top position. The country is also the most cited by firms in the manufacturing, commerce, as well as transport and communications sectors. OCBC’s Ling noted that pre-election jitters have faded and the new Prabowo administration – which came into power in late October – may be a catalyst for this optimism. Maybank’s Lee said the optimism towards Indonesia and Malaysia is likely due to their high growth prospects. “Malaysia has come into keener focus given its rising prowess (in) attracting investments in high-tech fields like semiconductors and data centres,” he said. Major infrastructure projects such as the upcoming Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System Link could also be buoying sentiment. On the whole, Chow expects Singapore’s gross domestic product to grow 3.7 to 4 per cent in Q4, in view of “external conflicts and political rivalry”. Full-year growth could come in at 3.4 to 3.5 per cent, she said. This is in line with several economists’ forecasts. Both DBS and Maybank have pencilled in full-year growth at 3.5 per cent, while OCBC is expecting 3.3 per cent growth due to a moderation in Q4. DBS economist Chua Han Teng noted that the ongoing recovery in external-oriented sectors such as manufacturing, trade-related services and modern services should continue in the final months of the year. “However, the election of Donald Trump as the next US president and his campaign promises to widen the trade war raise the downside risks and uncertainties for businesses in highly trade-reliant economies like Singapore over the coming years,” he said. Maybank’s Lee said Trump’s win and the Republican sweep could dampen business sentiment in Singapore, with the largest impact likely to be on overseas sales. More protectionist US policies under Trump could stifle regional trade and foreign direct investment, he added.
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Romania's pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu was leading in the first round of presidential elections Sunday according to exit polls, with the far right not yet assured of a place in the second round, despite a breakthrough in support. With 25 percent of the vote according to two exit polls, Ciolacu appeared to be well ahead of far-right challengers looking to capitalise on this EU member's concerns about inflation and the war in neighbouring Ukraine. The same exit polls gave second place to centre-right former journalist turned small-town mayor Elena Lasconi at 18 percent, with two far-right candidates scoring 15 and 16 percent. In the absence of an outright winner in the first round -- scoring more than 50 percent -- the top two candidates go through to a second-round run-off in the poor NATO member on December 8. Ciolacu, a Social Democrat, is leading a field of 13 contenders in the race to take over from President Klaus Iohannis in the largely ceremonial post. He welcomed the exit polls putting him in the lead, but said all the votes would have to be counted before he knew who he would face in the second round. Lasconi too, was cautious. "The scores are very tight, it's not yet time to celebrate," said the 52-year-old politician. Far-right leader George Simion, 38, who some had forecast might take second place, is for the moment in fourth. Exit polls put him just behind the 62-year-old pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu. But Simion said Sunday evening: "We'll see the results of the ballot boxes at 11:00 pm (2100 GMT)." Ciolacu's party has shaped Romania's politics for more than three decades, and as he voted Sunday he promised stability and a "decent" standard of living. But political analyst Cristian Parvulescu told AFP: "The far right is by far the big winner of this election." Simion saw his popularity surge by tapping into voter anger over record inflation while promising more affordable housing. Looking for a new election breakthrough for European far-right parties, Simion warned of possible "fraud" and "foreign interference" when voting. But he added: "I am happy that we are giving Romanians hope and the prospect of a better future." The stakes are high for Romania, which has a 650-kilometre (400-mile) border with Ukraine and has become more important since Russia invaded its neighbour in 2022. The Black Sea nation now plays a "vital strategic role" for NATO -- as it is a base for more than 5,000 soldiers -- and the transit of Ukrainian grain, the New Strategy Center think tank said. Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has further "complicated" Romania's choice, political analyst Cristian Pirvulescu told AFP. Known for his fiery speeches, Simion is a Trump fan who sometimes dons a red cap in appreciation of his idol. Simion opposes sending military aid to Ukraine, wants a "more patriotic Romania" and frequently lashes out against what he calls the "greedy corrupt bubble" running the European Union. Having campaigned hard to win over Romania's large diaspora working abroad, he said the country had only "minions and cowards as leaders". Pirvulescu predicted that if Simion reached the second round his AUR party would get a boost in the December parliamentary election. "Romanian democracy is in danger for the first time since the fall of communism in 1989," he said. "I'm really afraid we'll end up with Simion in the second round," 36-year-old IT worker Oana Diaconu told AFP, expressing concern about the far-right leader's unpredictable nature and attacks on the European Union. The campaign was marked by controversy and personal attacks, with Simion facing accusations of meeting with Russian spies -- a claim he has denied. Ciolacu has been criticised for his use of private jets. Some observers had tipped Lasconi, now mayor of the small town of Campulung and head of a centre-right opposition party, as a surprise package. Sunday's exit polls appeared to suggest they were right. During campaigning, she had said she wanted a future "where no one has to pack their suitcases and leave" the country and for "institutions that work". bur/js-jj/None
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of Gavin’s political career