Pep Guardiola sure 75 per cent of Premier League clubs want Man City relegatedPresident-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the promise that his policies would reduce high borrowing costs and lighten the financial burden on American households. But what if, as many economists expect, interest rates remain elevated, well above their pre-pandemic lows? Trump could point a finger at the Federal Reserve, and in particular at its chair, Jerome Powell, whom Trump himself nominated to lead the Fed. During his first term, Trump repeatedly and publicly ridiculed the Powell Fed, complaining it kept interest rates too high. Trump’s attacks on the Fed raised widespread concern about political interference in the Fed’s policymaking. Powell, for his part, emphasized the importance of the Fed’s independence: “That gives us the ability to make decisions for the benefit of all Americans at all times, not for any particular political party or political outcome.” Political clashes might be inevitable in the next four years. Trump’s proposals to cut taxes and impose steep and widespread tariffs are a recipe for high inflation in an economy operating at close to full capacity. And if inflation were to reaccelerate, the Fed would need to keep interest rates high. Because Powell won’t necessarily cut rates as much as Trump will want. And even if Powell reduces the Fed’s benchmark rate, Trump’s own policies could keep other borrowing costs — such as mortgage rates — elevated. The sharply higher tariffs that Trump vowed to impose could worsen inflation. And if tax cuts on things like tips and overtime pay — another Trump promise — quickened economic growth, that, too, could fan inflationary pressures. The Fed would likely respond by slowing or stopping its rate cuts, thereby thwarting Trump’s promises of lower borrowing rates. The central bank might even raise rates if inflation worsens. “The risk of conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed is very high,” Olivier Blanchard, former top economist at the International Monetary Fund, said recently. If the Fed increases rates, “it will stand in the way of what the Trump administration wants.” Yes, but with the economy sturdier than expected, the Fed’s policymakers may cut rates only a few more times — fewer than anticipated just a month or two ago. And those rate cuts might not reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses very much. The Fed’s key short-term rate can influence rates for credit cards, small businesses and some other loans. But it has no direct control over longer-term interest rates. These include the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is shaped by investors’ expectations of future inflation, economic growth and interest rates as well as by supply and demand for Treasuries. An example occurred this year. The 10-year yield fell in late summer in anticipation of a Fed rate cut. Yet once the first rate cut occurred Sept. 18, longer-term rates didn’t fall. Instead, they began to rise again, partly in anticipation of faster economic growth. Trump also proposed a variety of tax cuts that could swell the deficit. Rates on Treasury securities might then have to be increased to attract enough investors to buy the new debt. “I honestly don’t think the Fed has a lot of control over the 10-year rate, which is probably the most important for mortgages,” said Kent Smetters, an economist and faculty director at the Penn Wharton Budget Model. “Deficits are going to play a much bigger role in that regard.” Occasional or rare criticism of the Fed chair isn’t necessarily a problem for the economy, so long as the central bank continues to set policy as it sees fit. But persistent attacks would tend to undermine the Fed’s political independence, which is critically important to keeping inflation in check. To fight inflation, a central bank often must take steps that can be highly unpopular, notably by raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending. Political leaders typically want central banks to do the opposite: keep rates low to support the economy and the job market, especially before an election. Research has found that countries with independent central banks generally enjoy lower inflation. Even if Trump doesn’t technically force the Fed to do anything, his persistent criticism could still cause problems. If markets, economists and business leaders no longer think the Fed is operating independently and instead is being pushed around by the president, they’ll lose confidence in the Fed’s ability to control inflation. Once consumers and businesses anticipate higher inflation, they usually act in ways that fuel higher prices — accelerating their purchases, for example, before prices increase further, or raising their own prices if they expect their expenses to increase. “The markets need to feel confident that the Fed is responding to the data, not to political pressure,” said Scott Alvarez, a former general counsel at the Fed. He can try, but it would likely lead to a prolonged legal battle that could even end up at the Supreme Court. At a November news conference, Powell made clear that he believes the president doesn’t have legal authority to do so. Most experts think Powell would prevail in the courts. And from the Trump administration’s perspective, such a fight might not be worth it. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, when the White House could nominate a new chair. It is also likely the stock market would tumble if Trump attempted such a brazen move. Bond yields would probably increase, too, sending mortgage rates and other borrowing costs up. Financial markets might also react negatively if Trump is seen as appointing a loyalist as Fed chair to replace Powell in 2026. Yes, and in the most egregious cases, it led to stubbornly high inflation. Notably, President Richard Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to reduce interest rates in 1971, which the Fed did, as Nixon sought reelection the next year. Economists blame Burns’ failure to keep rates sufficiently high for contributing to the entrenched inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. Thomas Drechsel, an economist at the University of Maryland, said that when presidents intrude on the Fed’s interest rate decisions, “it increases prices quite consistently and it increases expectations, and ... that worries me because that means inflation might become quite entrenched.” Since the mid-1980s, with the exception of Trump in his first term, presidents have scrupulously refrained from public criticism of the Fed. “It’s amazing, how little manipulation for partisan ends we have seen of that policymaking apparatus,” said Peter Conti- Brown, a professor of financial regulation at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “It really is a triumph of American governance.” Get local news delivered to your inbox!
Opinion: Gambling with bird flu is asking for trouble — and another pandemicAlpine skier Mikaela Shiffrin is sidelined for 'a few weeks minimum' after crash
The (ASX: XJO) stock ( ) has just received a major vote of confidence from its current CEO through a . It can be a pleasing sign when a member of a leadership team buys their company's shares on the market. This suggests that the person believes in the business's long-term potential and is attracted to the valuation. Despite Lovisa CEO Victor Herrero intending to in May 2025, he recently invested in some Lovisa shares. He may have seen a buying opportunity with the company following a 22% share price drop from 23 August. Let's look at how much of the ASX 200 stock he decided to buy and at what price. Lovisa today that Victor Herrero has bought another 10,200 Lovisa shares to boost his holdings. He bought the shares at a price of $29.48, bringing the total investment to approximately $300,000. This investment brought his total holding to approximately 3.09 million shares, which is worth just over $90 million. Herrero is financially aligned with the success of the business, meaning when regular Lovisa shareholders succeed, so does Herrero. I think it's a good idea to look at growing businesses where the share price is lower because it suggests investors will get better value with a cheaper . Lovisa is growing its affordable jewellery store network globally, which is supporting sales growth. In its , the company advised that its total sales were up 10% in the first 20 weeks of FY25, and global comparable store sales were up 1% year over year. Lovisa also revealed that it had opened 27 net new stores for the 2025 financial year to date, comprising a mix of 40 new stores and 13 closures. This includes two relating to the conversion of its UAE franchise business to company-owned and two relocations. At the time of the AGM, it had 927 stores across 49 markets, with three new franchise markets opened in the year to date: Ivory Coast, Republic of Congo, and Panama. Compared to November 2023, it had 91 more stores and was operating in nine additional markets. According to the Commsec forecast, the ASX 200 stock is projected to generate 84.9 cents of . This puts the Lovisa share price at 34x FY25's estimated earnings, and it could pay a partially franked of 2.6%. I think now could be a long-term opportunity with the compelling company, though I expect it may see plenty of over the years as a retail business. I've been considering a top-up investment during this period.New plan to punish tech giants over news sharing
The slump in the number of people heading to the shops during Boxing Day sales signals a return to declining pre-pandemic levels, an analyst has said. Boxing Day shopper footfall was down 7.9% from last year across all UK retail destinations up until 5pm, MRI Software’s OnLocation Footfall Index found. However, this year’s data had been compared with an unusual spike in footfall as 2023 was the first “proper Christmas” period without Covid-19 pandemic restrictions, an analyst at the retail technology company said. It found £4.6 billion will be spent overall on the festive sales. Before the pandemic the number of Boxing Day shoppers on the streets had been declining year on year. The last uplift recorded by MRI was in 2015. Jenni Matthews, marketing and insights director at MRI Software, told the PA news agency: “We’ve got to bear in mind that (last year) was our first proper Christmas without any (Covid-19) restrictions or limitations. “Figures have come out that things have stabilised, we’re almost back to what we saw pre-pandemic.” There were year-on-year declines in footfall anywhere between 5% and 12% before Covid-19 restrictions, she said. MRI found 12% fewer people were out shopping on Boxing Day in 2019 than in 2018, and there were 3% fewer in 2018 than in 2017, Ms Matthews added. She said: “It’s the shift to online shopping, it’s the convenience, you’ve got the family days that take place on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.” People are also increasingly stocking-up before Christmas, Ms Matthews said, and MRI found an 18% increase in footfall at all UK retail destinations on Christmas Eve this year compared with 2023. Ms Matthews said: “We see the shops are full of people all the way up to Christmas Eve, so they’ve probably got a couple of good days of food, goodies, everything that they need, and they don’t really need to go out again until later on in that week. “We did see that big boost on Christmas Eve. It looks like shoppers may have concentrated much of their spending in that pre-Christmas rush.” Many online sales kicked off between December 23 and the night of Christmas Day and “a lot of people would have grabbed those bargains from the comfort of their own home”, she said. She added: “I feel like it’s becoming more and more common that people are grabbing the bargains pre-Christmas.” Footfall is expected to rise on December 27 as people emerge from family visits and shops re-open, including Next, Marks and Spencer and John Lewis that all shut for Boxing Day. It will also be payday for some as it is the last Friday of the month. A study by Barclays Consumer Spend had forecast that shoppers would spend £236 each on average in the Boxing Day sales this year, but that the majority of purchases would be made online. Nearly half of respondents said the cost-of-living crisis will affect their post-Christmas shopping but the forecast average spend is still £50 more per person than it was before the pandemic, with some of that figure because of inflation, Barclays said. Amid the financial pressures, many people are planning to buy practical, perishable and essential items such as food and kitchenware. A total of 65% of shoppers are expecting to spend the majority of their sales budget online. Last year, Barclays found 63.9% of Boxing Day retail purchases were made online. However, a quarter of respondents aim to spend mostly in store – an 11% rise compared with last year. Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: “Despite the ongoing cost-of-living pressures, it is encouraging to hear that consumers will be actively participating in the post-Christmas sales. “This year, we’re likely to see a shift towards practicality and sustainability, with more shoppers looking to bag bargains on kitchen appliances and second-hand goods.” Consumers choose in-store shopping largely because they enjoy the social aspect and touching items before they buy, Barclays said, adding that high streets and shopping centres are the most popular destinations.Arkansas visits skidding Miami in battle of veteran coaches
Growth of sports betting may be linked to financial woes, new studies findNone