Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for intel chief, faces questions on Capitol Hill amid Syria falloutDefence companies claim Adelaide conference was the 'Fyre Festival' of the military world
Earth just experienced its second-warmest November on record — second only to 2023 — making it all but certain that 2024 will end as the hottest year ever measured, according to a report Monday by European climate service Copernicus. Last year was the hottest on record due to human-caused climate change coupled with the effects of an El Nino. But after this summer registered as the hottest on record — Phoenix sweltered through 113 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit — scientists anticipated 2024 would set a new annual record as well. In November, global temperatures averaged 14.10C (57.38F). Last year's global average temperature was 14.98C (59F). FILE - People are silhouetted against the sky at sunset Nov. 12 as they run in a park in Shawnee, Kan. Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who wasn't involved in the report, said the big story about November is that "like 2023, it beat out previous Novembers by a large margin." This also likely will be the first calendar year in which the average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the report said. The 2015 Paris Agreement said human-caused warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally below 1.5. In the following years, the world's top scientist said limiting to 1.5 was crucial to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, such as increasing destructive and frequent extreme weather events. Scientists say the main cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. That "does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess. A young family visiting Washington cools off from the warm weather in a fountain Nov. 6 at the base of the Washington Monument. Francis said the new records are "terrible news for people and ecosystems." "The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they always have during previous changes in the Earth's climate. More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs they're a part of. Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decline and pests flourish," she said, also warning that coastal communities will be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Heat waves over the oceans and a loss of reflective sea ice and snow cover probably contributed to the temperature increase this year, experts said. Copernicus said the extent of Antarctic sea ice in November was 10% below average, a record. Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, later releasing heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere. Last year's record heat was caused partly by an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide. People walk Nov. 27 on an autumn-colored ginkgo tree-lined avenue in Tokyo. But that ended this year and a cooling effect that often follows, called La Nina, failed to materialize, leaving the scientific community "a little perplexed by what's going on here ... why temperatures are staying high," said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. One explanation is that an El Nino releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, then "we're not getting the cooling effect that often in decades gone by helps bring the temperature back down," Overpeck said. "So it does look like this could be contributing to the acceleration of global warming. But this year, he said, "is such a big jump following yet another jump, and that's a scary thing." It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as " heatflation ." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — blistering temperatures in Texas , a destructive tornado in Iowa — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket. At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As Grist reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are bracing for this summer — can prompt a spike in prices. It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. "When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee. How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases. "The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story." Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed 25 percent since 2020 . Climate change may be contributing as well. A study published earlier this year found " heatflation " could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world — known as multi-breadbasket failure — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs. Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like vital shipping channels during harvest seasons. "As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before." An ongoing drought that plagued the Mississippi River system from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers 31 states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces 92 percent of the nation's agricultural exports, 78 percent of the world's feed grains and soybeans , and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its roughly 2,350 miles of channels carry 589 million tons of cargo annually . Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the Corn Belt to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a high demand, low supply situation as shipping and commodity prices shot up , with economists expecting consumers to absorb those costs . Past research showing that retail prices increase alongside commodity prices suggests that the drought probably contributed to higher overall food costs last year — and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling stubbornly high grocery prices today. But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, particularly for meat and dairy products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a lack of research analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including global trade, war, and export bans , influence specific examples of sticker shock. While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin Çakır, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said Çakır. In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, Çakır examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces a third of the nation's vegetables and nearly two-thirds of its fruits and nuts , and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as Çakır expected. This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the resiliency of America's food system . Public safety nets like crop insurance and other federal programs have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against climate change and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability. A 2024 study of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability." Last year was the world's warmest on record , creating an onslaught of challenges for crop and livestock producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more brutal , with the transition from El Niño — an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures — to La Niña , its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another potential threat for crop yields and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on. They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Niño cycle gives way to a La Niña, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Niña develops. It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt ... that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts." As of January , U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting drought that began in 2020 . Americans, the majority of whom are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see "record" beef prices at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another 2.2 percent in 2024 , according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. In a world enmeshed in extremes, our already-fragile food supply chain could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering. This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media. Get the daily forecast and severe weather alerts in your inbox!ASX set to rise as Wall Street extends winning streak
A Spanish bar owner, nicknamed 'The Wolf of Tayueco', has been arrested after Google Street View images allegedly captured him loading white plastic bags, believed to contain human remains, into the boot of a car. This discovery led to the arrest of both the man and his lover, the wife of the victim, following the grim uncovering of a dismembered body in a cemetery in Andaluz, Spain. The investigation into the disappearance of a 33-year-old Cuban man took an unexpected turn when authorities reviewed images from Google Street View. These images showed a man in jeans and a jumper placing large plastic bags into the boot of a red car near the cemetery where the victim's remains were later uncovered. According to Metro , the victim had travelled from Cuba to visit his wife, only to discover her affair with another man. This tragic visit culminated in his disappearance in November last year, prompting a year-long investigation. Spanish National Police confirmed that part of the victim's remains were found buried in a cemetery in Soria, Andaluz. Advanced forensic techniques were employed to identify the body. While formal identification is still pending, police strongly believe the remains belong to the missing Cuban man. A spokesperson for the Spanish National Police stated: 'National Police officers have detained two people allegedly involved in the disappearance and death of a man who was reported missing in November last year by a relative. Part of the victim's remains have been found buried in a cemetery in Andaluz in Soria using advanced techniques.' The victim's family became suspicious after receiving text messages purportedly sent by him, claiming he had met a new woman and was discarding his mobile phone. The family, unconvinced by the authenticity of the messages, alerted authorities, suspecting foul play. The police spokesperson added: 'The messages the missing man's family received said he met a girl and was getting rid of his telephone. This made the relative suspect someone else was sending the messages, and that led to him alerting police.' The police detained the victim's wife and her lover on suspicion of unlawful detention after the pair failed to provide satisfactory explanations for his disappearance. Searches of their homes and vehicles uncovered further evidence linking them to the crime. 'Searches of the pair's homes and vehicles were subsequently authorised by police, where evidence relevant to the investigation was uncovered,' the spokesperson stated. 'The online image, showing a vehicle that could have been used in the course of the crime, was an additional piece of evidence.' The man captured in the Google Street View images, referred to as 'The Wolf of Tayueco', was arrested near the cemetery where the dismembered remains were discovered. Police suspect he and the victim's wife conspired to carry out the gruesome act. The shocking role of Google Street View in uncovering evidence has drawn widespread attention. While forensic experts work to confirm the victim's identity, authorities continue to piece together the events leading up to his death. This case highlights how technology, initially designed for navigation and exploration, can unintentionally aid in solving crimes. While Google Street View provided critical evidence in this case, other tech companies are also innovating their mapping tools. For instance, PCMag reports that Apple is working to expand its own mapping capabilities with a feature called Apple Look Around, designed to rival Google's offering. While still in its infancy, such technology could similarly play an unforeseen role in future investigations.Donald Trump: protector of women — or predators?A big first half by the University of Denver men's soccer team powers the Pioneers to the Round of 16 at the NCAA Tournament. The No. 3 seed Pioneers scored three goals in the first 25 minutes of Sunday's match against Gardner-Webb in Denver and the defense did the rest in the 3-0 victory. Captain Ben Smith opened the scoring with a goal in the 19th minute. It was Smith's second goal of the season and the sixth of his DU career. Bryce Willoughby and Ronan Wynne had assists. Just five minutes later freshman Keegan Kelly found the back of the net. Two minutes later Trevor Wright scored the third goal of the first half. Sam Bassett had the assist on both goals. DU held Gardner-Webb to just eight shots in the win. The Pioneers will host No. 14 seed Indiana on Saturday in Denver. Kickoff is 2 p.m.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves explains how Leeds will benefit from being home of National Wealth FundA late-game rally derailed by a missed extra point and Cowboys stun Commanders 34-26
WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard faced fresh scrutiny Monday on Capitol Hill about her proximity to Russian-ally Syria amid the sudden collapse of that country’s hardline Assad rule. Gabbard ignored shouted questions about her as she ducked into one of several private meetings with senators who are being asked to confirm . But the Democrat-turned-Republican Army National Reserve lieutenant colonel delivered a statement in which she reiterated her support for Trump’s America First approach to national security and a more limited U.S. military footprint overseas. “I want to address the issue that’s in the headlines right now: I stand in full support and wholeheartedly agree with the statements that President Trump has made over these last few days with regards to the developments in Syria,” Gabbard said exiting a Senate meeting. The incoming president’s Cabinet and top administrative choices are dividing his Republican allies and , if not full opposition, from Democrats and others. Not just Gabbard, but other Trump nominees including Pentagon pick Pete Hegseth, were back at the Capitol ahead of what is expected to be volatile confirmation hearings next year. The incoming president is working to put his team in place for an of mass immigrant deportations, firing federal workers and rollbacks of U.S. support for Ukraine and NATO allies. “We’re going to sit down and visit, that’s what this is all about,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., as he welcomed Gabbard into his office. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary pick to be picking up support from once-skeptical senators, the former Army National Guard major denying sexual misconduct allegations and pledging not to drink alcohol if he is confirmed. The president-elect’s choice to lead the FBI, , who has written extensively about locking up Trump’s foes and proposed dismantling the Federal Bureau of Investigation, launched his first visits with senators Monday. “I expect our Republican Senate is going to confirm all of President Trump’s nominees,” said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., on social media. Despite widespread concern about the nominees’ qualifications and demeanors for the jobs that are among the highest positions in the U.S. government, Trump’s team is portraying the criticism against them as nothing more than political smears and innuendo. Showing that concern, have urged Senate leaders to schedule closed-door hearings to allow for a full review of the government’s files on Gabbard. Trump’s allies have described the in particular as similar to those lodged against Brett Kavanaugh, the former president’s Supreme Court nominee who denied a sexual assault allegation and went on to be confirmed during Trump’s first term in office. Said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., about Hegseth: “Anonymous accusations are trying to destroy reputations again. We saw this with Kavanaugh. I won’t stand for it.” One widely watched Republican, Sen. Joni of Iowa, herself a former Army National Guard lieutenant colonel and sexual assault survivor who had been criticized by Trump allies for her cool reception to Hegseth, appeared more open to him after their follow-up meeting Monday. “I appreciate Pete Hegseth’s responsiveness and respect for the process,” Ernst said in a statement. Ernst said that following “encouraging conversations,” he had committed to selecting a senior official who will “prioritize and strengthen my work to prevent sexual assault within the ranks. As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources.” Ernst also had praise for Patel — “He shares my passion for shaking up federal agencies” — and for Gabbard. Once a rising Democratic star, Gabbard, who represented Hawaii in Congress, arrived a decade ago in Washington, her surfboard in tow, a new generation of potential leaders. She ran unsuccessfully for president in 2020. But Gabbard abruptly left the party and briefly became an independent before joining with Trump’s 2024 campaign as one of his enthusiasts, in large part over his disdain for U.S. involvement overseas and opposition to helping Ukraine battle Russia. Her visit to Syria to meet with then-President Bashar Assad around the time of Trump’s first inauguration during the country’s bloody civil war stunned her former colleagues and the Washington national security establishment. The U.S. had severed diplomatic relations with Syria. Her visit was seen by some as legitimizing a brutal leader who was accused of war crimes. Gabbard has defended the trip, saying it’s important to open dialogue, but critics hear in her commentary echoes of Russia-fueled talking points. Assad fled to Moscow over the weekend after Islamist rebels overtook Syria in a surprise attack, ending his family’s five decades of rule. She said her own views have been shaped by “my multiple deployments and seeing firsthand the cost of war and the threat of Islamist terrorism.” Gabbard said, “It’s one of the many reasons why I appreciate President Trump’s leadership and his election, where he is fully committed, as he has said over and over, to bring about an end to wars.” Last week, the nearly 100 former officials, who served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, said in the letter to Senate leaders they were “alarmed” by the choice of Gabbard to oversee all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies. They said her past actions “call into question her ability to deliver unbiased intelligence briefings to the President, Congress, and to the entire national security apparatus.” The Office of the Director of National Intelligence was created after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to coordinate the nation’s intelligence agencies and act as the president’s main intelligence adviser. ___ Associated Press writer Stephen Groves contributed to this report.
South Bow Co. ( NYSE:SOBO – Get Free Report ) declared a quarterly dividend on Thursday, November 7th, Zacks Dividends reports. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, December 31st will be given a dividend of 0.50 per share on Friday, January 31st. This represents a $2.00 annualized dividend and a yield of 8.51%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, December 31st. South Bow has a payout ratio of 114.3% indicating that the company cannot currently cover its dividend with earnings alone and is relying on its balance sheet to cover its dividend payments. Research analysts expect South Bow to earn $1.80 per share next year, which means the company may not be able to cover its $2.00 annual dividend with an expected future payout ratio of 111.1%. South Bow Price Performance South Bow stock opened at $23.49 on Friday. The stock’s fifty day moving average price is $24.63. South Bow has a 12-month low of $21.12 and a 12-month high of $27.30. Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth View Our Latest Report on South Bow About South Bow ( Get Free Report ) South Bow Corp is a strategic liquids pipeline company. It is a new liquids-focused midstream infrastructure company. South Bow Corp is based in Canada. Featured Articles Receive News & Ratings for South Bow Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for South Bow and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter .Earth just experienced its second-warmest November on record — second only to 2023 — making it all but certain that 2024 will end as the hottest year ever measured, according to a report Monday by European climate service Copernicus. Last year was the hottest on record due to human-caused climate change coupled with the effects of an El Nino. But after this summer registered as the hottest on record — Phoenix sweltered through 113 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit — scientists anticipated 2024 would set a new annual record as well. In November, global temperatures averaged 14.10C (57.38F). Last year's global average temperature was 14.98C (59F). FILE - People are silhouetted against the sky at sunset Nov. 12 as they run in a park in Shawnee, Kan. Charlie Riedel, Associated Press Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who wasn't involved in the report, said the big story about November is that "like 2023, it beat out previous Novembers by a large margin." People are also reading... This also likely will be the first calendar year in which the average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the report said. The 2015 Paris Agreement said human-caused warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally below 1.5. In the following years, the world's top scientist said limiting to 1.5 was crucial to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, such as increasing destructive and frequent extreme weather events. Scientists say the main cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. That "does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess. A young family visiting Washington cools off from the warm weather in a fountain Nov. 6 at the base of the Washington Monument. Kevin Wolf, Associated Press Listen now and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | RSS Feed | SoundStack | All Of Our Podcasts Francis said the new records are "terrible news for people and ecosystems." "The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they always have during previous changes in the Earth's climate. More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs they're a part of. Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decline and pests flourish," she said, also warning that coastal communities will be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Heat waves over the oceans and a loss of reflective sea ice and snow cover probably contributed to the temperature increase this year, experts said. Copernicus said the extent of Antarctic sea ice in November was 10% below average, a record. Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, later releasing heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere. Last year's record heat was caused partly by an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide. People walk Nov. 27 on an autumn-colored ginkgo tree-lined avenue in Tokyo. Shuji Kajiyama, Associated Press But that ended this year and a cooling effect that often follows, called La Nina, failed to materialize, leaving the scientific community "a little perplexed by what's going on here ... why temperatures are staying high," said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. One explanation is that an El Nino releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, then "we're not getting the cooling effect that often in decades gone by helps bring the temperature back down," Overpeck said. "So it does look like this could be contributing to the acceleration of global warming. But this year, he said, "is such a big jump following yet another jump, and that's a scary thing." How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as "heatflation." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — blistering temperatures in Texas, a destructive tornado in Iowa — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket.At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As Grist reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are bracing for this summer — can prompt a spike in prices. It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University. "When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee.How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases."The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story."Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed 25 percent since 2020. Climate change may be contributing as well. A study published earlier this year found "heatflation" could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world — known as multi-breadbasket failure — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs.Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like vital shipping channels during harvest seasons."As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before." Spencer Platt // Getty Images Lower water levels slow down barges on the Mississippi River An ongoing drought that plagued the Mississippi River system from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers 31 states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces 92 percent of the nation's agricultural exports, 78 percent of the world's feed grains and soybeans, and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its roughly 2,350 miles of channels carry 589 million tons of cargo annually. Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the Corn Belt to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a high demand, low supply situation as shipping and commodity prices shot up, with economists expecting consumers to absorb those costs. Past research showing that retail prices increase alongside commodity prices suggests that the drought probably contributed to higher overall food costs last year — and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling stubbornly high grocery prices today. But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, particularly for meat and dairy products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a lack of research analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including global trade, war, and export bans, influence specific examples of sticker shock. While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin Çakır, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said Çakır. In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, Çakır examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces a third of the nation's vegetables and nearly two-thirds of its fruits and nuts, and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as Çakır expected. This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the resiliency of America's food system. Public safety nets like crop insurance and other federal programs have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against climate change and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability. A 2024 study of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability." Last year was the world's warmest on record, creating an onslaught of challenges for crop and livestock producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more brutal, with the transition from El Niño — an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures — to La Niña, its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another potential threat for crop yields and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on. They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Niño cycle gives way to a La Niña, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Niña develops. It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt ... that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts."As of January, U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting drought that began in 2020. Americans, the majority of whom are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see "record" beef prices at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another 2.2 percent in 2024, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. In a world enmeshed in extremes, our already-fragile food supply chain could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering.This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media. Scott Olson // Getty Images Local Weather
Maverick McNealy sank a birdie putt from just inside six feet on the 18th hole to win the RSM Classic on Sunday, capturing his first US PGA Tour title. The 29-year-old American fired a two-under par 68 to finish 72 holes on 16-under 266 at Sea Island Golf Club to capture a top prize of $1.36 million. That was enough for a one-stroke victory over compatriots Daniel Berger, who shot 67, and Luke Clanton, who closed with a 66, and Colombian Nico Echavarria, who had a final-round 65. McNealy, who had five prior top-five finishes this season, captured his first victory in his 142nd PGA start. He qualified for next year's Masters as well as the PGA's season-opening tournament of champions event in Hawaii in January. Birdies at the fifth and eighth holes kept McNealy in the lead but he stumbled with a bogey at the 14th, setting up the dramatic finish. Echavarria had six birdies in his round but missed a nine-foot par putt for a bogey at 18 that left him one adrift. Clanton had six birdies and a bogey but missed a par putt at 18 from just outside six feet to fall just off the pace. Berger had a bogey-free round and birdied the par-3 third and sixth holes as well as the 11th but missed a 20-foot birdie putt at 18 to settle for a share of second, good enough to keep his tour playing rights for next year. Canada's Mackenzie Hughes and Americans Lee Hodges and J.T. Poston shared fifth on 268. js/ Get any of our free email newsletters — news headlines, sports, arts & entertainment, state legislature, CFD news, and more.Jimmy Carter’s ascent to the White House was something few people could have predicted when he was governor of the US state of Georgia. It was no different for Jimmy Carter in the early 1970s. It took meeting several presidential candidates and then encouragement from an esteemed elder statesman before the young governor, who had never met a president himself, saw himself as something bigger. He announced his White House bid on December 12 1974, amid fallout from the Vietnam War and the resignation of Richard Nixon. Then he leveraged his unknown, and politically untainted, status to become the 39th president. That whirlwind path has been a model, explicit and otherwise, for would-be contenders ever since. “Jimmy Carter’s example absolutely created a 50-year window of people saying, ‘Why not me?’” said Steve Schale, who worked on President Barack Obama’s campaigns and is a long-time supporter of President Joe Biden. Mr Carter’s journey to high office began in Plains, Georgia where he received end-of-life care decades after serving as president. David Axelrod, who helped to engineer Mr Obama’s four-year ascent from state senator to the Oval Office, said Mr Carter’s model is about more than how his grassroots strategy turned the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary into his springboard. “There was a moral stain on the country, and this was a guy of deep faith,” Mr Axelrod said. “He seemed like a fresh start, and I think he understood that he could offer something different that might be able to meet the moment.” Donna Brazile, who managed Democrat Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign, got her start on Mr Carter’s two national campaigns. “In 1976, it was just Jimmy Carter’s time,” she said. Of course, the seeds of his presidential run sprouted even before Mr Nixon won a second term and certainly before his resignation in August 1974. In Mr Carter’s telling, he did not run for governor in 1966, he lost, or in 1970 thinking about Washington. Even when he announced his presidential bid, neither he nor those closest to him were completely confident. “President of what?” his mother, Lillian, replied when he told her his plans. But soon after he became governor in 1971, Mr Carter’s team envisioned him as a national player. They were encouraged in part by the May 31 Time magazine cover depicting Mr Carter alongside the headline “Dixie Whistles a Different Tune”. Inside, a flattering profile framed Mr Carter as a model “New South” governor. In October 1971, Carter ally Dr Peter Bourne, an Atlanta physician who would become US drug tsar, sent his politician friend an unsolicited memo outlining how he could be elected president. On October 17, a wider circle of advisers sat with Mr Carter at the Governor’s Mansion to discuss it. Mr Carter, then 47, wore blue jeans and a T-shirt, according to biographer Jonathan Alter. The team, including Mr Carter’s wife Rosalynn, who died aged 96 in November 2023, began considering the idea seriously. “We never used the word ‘president’,” Mr Carter recalled upon his 90th birthday, “but just referred to national office”. Mr Carter invited high-profile Democrats and Washington players who were running or considering running in 1972, to one-on-one meetings at the mansion. He jumped at the chance to lead the Democratic National Committee’s national campaign that year. The position allowed him to travel the country helping candidates up and down the ballot. Along the way, he was among the Southern governors who angled to be George McGovern’s running mate. Mr Alter said Mr Carter was never seriously considered. Still, Mr Carter got to know, among others, former vice president Hubert Humphrey and senators Henry Jackson of Washington, Eugene McCarthy of Maine and Mr McGovern of South Dakota, the eventual nominee who lost a landslide to Mr Nixon. Mr Carter later explained he had previously defined the nation’s highest office by its occupants immortalised by monuments. “For the first time,” Mr Carter told The New York Times, “I started comparing my own experiences and knowledge of government with the candidates, not against ‘the presidency’ and not against Thomas Jefferson and George Washington. It made it a whole lot easier”. Adviser Hamilton Jordan crafted a detailed campaign plan calling for matching Mr Carter’s outsider, good-government credentials to voters’ general disillusionment, even before Watergate. But the team still spoke and wrote in code, as if the “higher office” were not obvious. It was reported during his campaign that Mr Carter told family members around Christmas 1972 that he would run in 1976. Mr Carter later wrote in a memoir that a visit from former secretary of state Dean Rusk in early 1973 affirmed his leanings. During another private confab in Atlanta, Mr Rusk told Mr Carter plainly: “Governor, I think you should run for president in 1976.” That, Mr Carter wrote, “removed our remaining doubts.” Mr Schale said the process is not always so involved. “These are intensely competitive people already,” he said of governors, senators and others in high office. “If you’re wired in that capacity, it’s hard to step away from it.” “Jimmy Carter showed us that you can go from a no-name to president in the span of 18 or 24 months,” said Jared Leopold, a top aide in Washington governor Jay Inslee’s unsuccessful bid for Democrats’ 2020 nomination. “For people deciding whether to get in, it’s a real inspiration,” Mr Leopold continued, “and that’s a real success of American democracy”.